EastonSN+

Shocked how low 17/18 is showing. I mean even if you factor in the normal under reporting.

I am pretty confident of a 6 to 12 storm before we go all RNA. I think the wave that is showing up sooner, currently modeled as rain, will end up being more south and a potential hit.

The potential is definitely there.

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays.

Right here, PNA turning to RNA to help push a storm into our area with blocking in place and colder air in place. May miss south or east, but this is our window.

Definitely rolls to an RNA, but I am definitely seeing a good window for an 8 to 12 type event before then. The way the GEFS rolls it looks nice in the transition.

Dollars to donuts we get a hecs during the 17th to 22nd period then we RNA for a bit.

Don or Bluewave are better places to opine on that. I think Bluewave mentioned that 10/11 was -4. Block was better placed position wise that December.

That 18th through 22nd time period is oooozing with potential. Colder air in place and rising AO/NAO from historic levels. That December 12 thing to me is noise.

Yeah this is really looking close to December 2012.

Leaving the mini ice age and heading to another medieval warm period :()

FWIW the storm track on the CMC and GFS are VERY close. Whether mostly rain or not we shall see.

That cutter around the 16th is what really drops that AO.

Potentially breaching -4!!

Ha. That model flips more than pancakes. I would welcome some energy savings (and agree to a 2002/2003 repeat next year)!

I dont think the last 10 years were that noticable. I lived in Coastal CT my whole life, and although it feels like falls and December are much warmer, less snowy, I feel that March and April have gotten snowier. Heck we just had a trace of snow in May 3 years ago. Now, my grandfather told of a time when they drove on part of Long island sound due to parts of it being frozen, so yes if you go back 100 years there is a definite change. Warming and cooling is cyclical, and we are still emerging from the last mini ice age. Good link here. Quote below. https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age "Today some scientists use it to distinguish only the period 1500–1850, when mountain glaciers expanded to their greatest extent, but the phrase is more commonly applied to the broader period 1300–1850. The Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warming Period (roughly 900–1300 CE) and preceded the present period of warming that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries."

Agree, I think parts of the area receive snow beforehand, but that it likely our big window UNLESS this does follow 12/13, where we can experience blocking return and have another fun mid February through March. Obviously that is way out. Per Dons stats the numbers look good when the AO drops below -3. We could reach -4, the only downside for western areas of the sub forum is the block is displaced SE like 12/13.

End of the run where the RNA seems to return, however we all know models rush pattern changes (i.e. the current one).

Bit of an EPO spike!

This is really looking more and more like 12/13. December blocking and PAC have similarities. We all know the fun that ensued February and March that year! No two winters are exact but I like the potential. Something that Winter caused the December and subsequent Feb. March blocking.

Looks a bit like the December 2012 snowstorm. Bluewave showed the H5 December 12 a while back.

Yup, especially as we get later in the month. As usual north and east has better chance than south and west.

GEFS has the AO touching -4. If we stay conservative with -3.5, per the stats you have provided we are in pretty good shape for some potential!

GEFS got a little better, EPS got a little worse. Perhaps they are finally going to get closer to a compromise.