EastonSN+

I still contend we had no shot with the overall configuration over north America this winter.

All events.

Ugh I bet that means less for WCT now.

East and later capture. So a NNE win. About to tap out of this one.

Yeah I think the BDR record is almost a lock now. I think the next storm would not work as well for BDR (however will defer to you guys).

Stole from NE forum.

And like clockwork the ICON moves east.

Not liking that here in western CT.

100% correct. We need it further west.

La Nina = NS dominance. Especially I'm a historic year for the WC like this one.

Would be fine in March too if the west coast was not having their 95/96 winter. They were due.

This is failing cause the Norlun is weaker than modeled earlier.

Crickets.

Yeah the modeling weakened the norlun trough therefore less dynamic cooling. Would not be surprised with further cutbacks they do it slowly.

Good luck up your way, I am tapping out down here.

I think the lack of red-tagger opinions is a huge red flag too.

Red taggers - please prove me wrong/talk me out of pessimism for this storm.

March is not the issue IMO, it really starts with what has happened all year out west. This is their 95/96 start to finish record breaking year. I have no doubt we will have another March/April period like 17/18, 18/19, 91/92, 95/96, 02/03, 12/13, 14/15 etc etc. It just will NEVER happen in a record west coast year like this one.

Yeah they will do their slow take-down process.

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong. 1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly 2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time 3.) TWC has all rain even up here 4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy 5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot 6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB 7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm Now I am usually 99% optimistic, however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO.

Yeah can help us here unlike December. This sst temps may be around for a few years before cycling cooler.

Really losing my confidence in this system. We need it to deepen early enough and close enough to allow for enough dynamic cooling (i.e. under the CCB). Plus not a peep from Forky.

Yeah, slightly east and weaker = less dynamic cooling and rain.