EastonSN+

I had 22 when I was in Norwalk. Would have been 35 where I am now. One thing about central park in that storm is a portion was rain. How much would have accumulated if it was all snow? I am thinking what NE NJ got about 16 inches.

Is this similar to what happened in 12/13? We had the block in December then the snowstorms of Feb and March that year.

Thanks that's also a good point as to why this "delay" is a good thing. We want this pattern to mature as late as possible.

Yesterday

Love how the GEFS moved towards the EPS w/r/t the pac. Looks really good for even us coasties. On a side note, massive difference DOD on the GEFS MJO chart. More spread and into the COD. Today

Ha last point. As Forky alluded to -PNA can HELP in some cases. As long as it's not moderately (or the monstrosity of last December), we will be fine.

One thing to add, most failures of the past were different. 19/20 the change was never in the ensembles but rather the weeklies. This change is on the ensembles. 01/02 was similar. 12/13 is the best representation of what can go wrong, but we all had snow that month so it was not a complete failure, and half of this forum had above average snowfall for the year thanks to repeat blocking and snowfall in FEB and March. I would sign up for that failure any day.

Iist say I woke up very pleased that the GEFS finally caved to the EPS w/r/t the PAC. Both have the block, so that's of the most confidence. I honestly feel like everything is going a according to how all of them Mets on this board have been saying. Will take a few weeks, all said beyond the 15th. I have seen nothing yet that can ruin the upcoming pattern. Now yes, nothing in life or weather are guaranteed, and there is a SMALL chance that it's a complete failure, but until we see any signs of that (GEFS and EPS Lossing the 6z look), or any MET on this board says we are in trouble, I see no reason to worry unless you were hopeful for the change before the 15th. You are seeing things get pushed back which is common and we see it every year, even when we are in a good pattern the models push back the collapse of said pattern. All is on schedule IMO.

This seems like a perfectly good gambling situation. Ridging vs. Trough Over/under on 20 plus inches before the blocking fades.

Here they go

The main "issue" I see is if the GEFS is more correct than the EPS, the block is a little east and would tend to favor easter half of sub forum, but NOT ONE Met has shown any deviation from the favored progression.

Seems fine so far. What's the issue?

Yeah ended up being an above average snowfall year IMBY. Good December event too.

Exactly.

Yup, which is expected given the pattern progression.

Think that was an El Nino if not mistaken, and Canada was void of cold air. As long as we do not have the pig in the GOA 1996 will not happen.

Great post by ORH wxman wanted to share here. No need for concern IMO.

Thanks Don, Speaking of the CFS weeklies only (do not have EURO), loving the fact that the entire run is below average temps, but not arctic (would run risk of suppression IMO). Like you said low skill range for these products - but very promising!

Looks like great timing getting back to phases 781 when the block matures.

The CFS weeklies show exactly what you were forecasting. Blocking week 2 and then east coast trough weeks 3 through 6.

Thanks for this! IMO I believe while a SE can hurt in December and March, it can be a blessing in Jan Feb and blocking periods. I would have loved a bump in Feb 2010. That one hurt. Think Staten Island had 8 while Manhattan had 0.

Yeah wonder if it's cyclical. I watched a show which focused on weather patterns in history. Mini ice ages and warm spells. Apparently at one point it was so warm globally that they were growing grapes in England.

Now that I trashed the weeklies, CFS weeklies look phenomenal - ha. Of course I do not put much stock in them but weeks 2 through 6 present blocking early and -epo +PNA late.

also on the topic of "Delayed and denied", I only remember this happening twice. 01/02 19/20 Both times it was the worthless weeklies week 3 and beyond we were focusing on. In this case both the GEFS and EPS are matching other than a couple of days difference.

I wouldn't worry, not one MET has stated that it will keep getting pushed back, and Forky last night stated that it was always EOM and beyond. I have a feeling this will work out like Feb 2021. I may not get over 30 in 3 weeks again, but a similar window with opportunities.