EastonSN+

And just like the weeklies were made irrelevant after the 19/20 season, day 8 onwards of the ensembles seem to be useless. Really disappointing, and IMO more disappointing than this snowstorm opportunity miss. Relegated to using the op runs and ensembles just to see individual low pressure placement under 8 days. Terrible.

That may be the case, but what made them suddenly latch on now? Why not before? What is in the algorithm that suddenly recognized this warm pool and completely change the entire look. Other than an upgrade to all three suites at the same time, I cannot see how it was just suddenly picked up cause it was always there.

On a general note, and it may be banter, but I am extremely disappointed with the way the ensemble LR guidance completely flipped on a dime. Back in 19/20 I remember everyone was watching the weeklies which showed a great pattern week three onwards. Then we slowly realized the look would never materialize and now the weeklies are barely posted. Now all three ensemble suites completely flipped day 8 onwards. This is very disappointing and shakes my confidence in anything shown past day seven. It can flip back to a favorable look, but that would just exasperate the issue.

Another great post by coastalwx.

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average. I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one.

Seriously. Just yesterday they showed a great pattern and in a couple runs they totally flipped for the LR. They can just as easily flip again. So anyone taking a NYE torch as gospel just needs to look at the runs the past two days!

Great post from CoastalWX!

Thanks. I am dying to see the H5 plot for that month. I do believe in global warming due to human and natural causes, however I have a hard time believing a -4 NAO will never work again I'm December. Rather, the failure was due to small nuances that did not line up. I would take my chances with a Neg NAO in December every chance I get!

Didn't almost the exact same thing happen December 2012? Neg NAO and all but like this year we had 1 minor event and we had the SAME nose of warmth to the east that connected with the NAO. I know someone posted the December 2012 H5 plot before however cannot find. I don't think this is a new era where a December Neg NAO will never work again. It just failed like 2012.

17/18 was one of my top 5 winters. 70 degrees in February with a 4.5 inch snowstorm mixed in before the epic March. You can't snow in a more hostile environment than that Feb. I think the METS we're saying historically when we hit -4.0 AO Blocking typically returns Looking at the ensembles blocking never leaves! PAC is all over the place. We are really following 12/13 it seems. That Winter we had 1 snowstorm in the December blocking periods that was considered a basic fail. This year we already had one snowstorm and now failing. I think Bluewave showed the H5 map from December 2012 and it had that link up to the NAO on the coast like we are experiencing now. 12/13 ended up being solidly above average snowfall wise. Let's see if this winter comes close. We shall see.

Yup sometimes the good patterns fail and the bad patterns produce (see February 2018).

While the ensembles continue to vary on the PAC progression, all continue the blocking straight through.

Thanks Walt! Made a visit to the MA forum and the 6Z EPS definitely shifted east a bit. IMBY (coastal CT) already had 1.5 inches. Would gladly take a 1 to 3 incher before the rain to pad the December snowfall stats.

Yeah I took a peak at the EPS, GEPS and GEFS. Only the EPS shows a full GOA Trough while the others show it being temporary. GEPS seems to be a good middle ground this morning FWIW.

I mean this always had a risk of cutting per below older runs. Recent runs gave us a head fake. Like Forky stated after Christmas. And what has changed in the pattern depicted in the ensembles?

GEFS will post GEPS once in.

Hey if a red tagger states this I would believe it.

Thanks!

Just like yesterday looked like a monster snowstorm was coming in, today looks more like 50/50 rain or snow. If this change happened in the course of 12 hours, imagine what the changes could be by tomorrow morning. Could be massive rainstorm and wind or a blizzard. My advice is to listed to red taggers when they opine on the matter, for it's their profession. EVEN IF THIS ONE IS RAIN, I am confident in the step-down progression of the pattern and would in no way affect my thoughts on the winter progression.

Could end up a good old fashioned 6 to 10 with a changeover. Just for fun for both storms.

Feb 2010. I am technically in New England and rained all day and night until the next morning when the storm occluded. Ended up with 8 inches of snow on the back end after a day of rain! Air mass will be colder on this storm too.

Wow

What a monster on the GFS.

This winter may end up being something really special.

Epic storm depiction on GFS! Let's wait for the CMC to roll before we get our hopes up