EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Amazing difference still between GEFS and EPS. Negative AO and NAO GEFS Positive on EPS. Both still have the trough in east coast. This difference would have major implications on storm tracks
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Looks great but I feel like the GEFS is more accurate.
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I still think we wait until the PNA starts to fall and we get hammered by an 8 to 14 event.
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If the PNa is not as negative as December we snow. Plus Snowgoose and Don showed how Feb is kinder to snowfall with negative PNA.
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It's coming back!
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Pretty big difference between the GEFS and EPS at 240. GEFS has a stark negative AO and NAO combo while the EPS has a cross polar flow (no blocking). MAJOR difference in storm track and speed impacts. Both are obviously cold.
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Miller As help the Litchfield County Berks and Vermont areas catch up in the snow category.
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Thanks Walt! I am going to be extremely un-scientific here and say "somethin's gonna get us" I am fascinated with this extreme cold followed by rain followed by extreme cold. I feel like the 1980s and early 90s had this happen often.
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I know I know Op. Run long range. Not saying this image will happen but just using for illustration purposes only! This ends up sliding off the southeast coast BUT the PNA is starting to drop which should pump up SE ride and help get something like this to us.
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I feel like we have to wait until the PNA starts to go negative to get our next big snow event. We do well when PNA starts to fall (pattern change storm).
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Agreed. Will be fun to see if it's a record trough again or something manageable. Personally I think we do fine in Feb. And great in March. We shall see, part of the fun!
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What are your thoughts on February/March? You nailed the last storm and would like to get your opinion (believe the board as well).
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I guess all in all February will hinge on whether or not we repeat record RNA vs. Typical RNA. Plus if the RNA returns what's to say the current pattern does not come back as well. Will be fun to watch unfold.
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Maybe it will be negative 1 instead of record levels this time and in February. Then we have snowfall opportunities. A lot up in the air but would think we avoid record RNA levels again.
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100% agree BUT what are the chances it's that deep again? December was almost if not record levels.
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Thanks Don! Actually getting excited about February and March!
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Yup. This IS a repeat of December which is good as.... 1.) Highly unlikely we go recorded RNA twice in one season 2.) As Don and Snowgoose alluded to RNA is less hostile in February (2nd half). Also this may mean that the January look returns in March!
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Bet it works out better for us this go around snowfall wise!
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COMPLETELY AGREE. Low over the lakes bothers me. Way more concerned about cutting.
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Also that's a negative AO. Bowling balls cutting underneath! That look to me is tasty.
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Good! Better than cold and dry with that look we can get overrunning snows!
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Yup, and the RNA in Feb can actually lead to a favorable snow pattern for us. I can see us col and dry this month and multiple overrunning events in February.
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Yeah this is why I am not looking at the return of the RNA in Feb as the end to a good stretch. To me it will have little negative affect to our snow chances as compared to now.
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I do agree. Example would be February 2018 where all the Teles we're against snowfall and we had a 4 to 8 inch snow event. Just looking at the teles would say we had no shot at snow. Dont fear the MJO phase 5!
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Thanks Don. Curious if there are stats on February's with an RNA negative AO combo (basically a subdued December repeat). Like you said the larger events are probably heavily skewed towards end of the month.
