EastonSN+

Plus the December and March ones for 2013.

Yeah, we seem to be following the 89/90 playbook with missing a golden opportunity (pattern) in December followed by warmth That being said, 89/90 is ahead of us snow wise. The wild card, none of the mentioned winters had severe blocking in December and as others have said is likely to return, so there can be a window at some point.

I have a hard time believing there are people who do not actually believe we are warming. I think the argument these days is 100% human influence, 100% cyclical or (what I believe) a blend of the two. I think it's a fact that greenhouse gasses, urban development etc warms our atmosphere. I think it's a fact that the planet goes through multi century cycles, and we are still emerging from the cold one that ended in the mid 1800s. The combination of the two is warming us at a historic clip.

If one is a fan of warm winters, the AO looks like it's going neutral to positive, PNA going negative and the MJO may be heading out of the colder phases past mid month. Unlike this warm spell which has been cloudy and rainy more often than not, the above setup could be a bit dryer, warmer. We shall see. As others alluded to, blocking tends to return when presenting itself I'm December. Therefore, snow lovers may still have a window later on. Perhaps this February will be like Feb 2021, or this March like 2018 or 2019, even January of last year. In the meantime, enjoy the energy savings and outdoor activities!

More Middle Atlantic of course, but the Delmarva, including Ocean City Maryland, had a historic year for snowfall last year. Odd how that works (mild a lack of snow for us results in snow to out south).

If this is a legit threat, Forky will opine soon.

Not fighting on this one but my point was more to show that in a la Nina the northern stream dominates, so we get more "cutters" due to that fact. Was just using an extreme example to show what can happen when the southern stream dominates.

That's funny, for February 2010 I was rain for most of the storm only getting 8 at the very end. Not a top 20 for me.

This is a much better map from NWS

22 to30 inches from SW CT to Yonkers. 30 plus central LI It was a HECS for 50% of this forum.

No I think there is still a possibility. Positives are retracting jet and southern stream influence.

I know it was discussed that the MJO is not having much of an influence, and these charts are noisy and not too accurate, but they are heading into colder phases.

2013. This winter being la Nina, the northern low would dominant and we are warm-sectored. Obviously we know in 2013 the southern low took over and history is made.

Do you have 1916? Curious as BDR had back to back days of 65.

One thing I have noticed on the models, where coastals eventually turn into cutters, is that the northern stream energy this year seems to always take over/become stronger. For instance, overnight runs look more cutterish not due to the storm suddenly becoming a cutter, but rather the northern low strengthens, dominates the southern low and therefore we end up on the warm sector as opposed to when the southern low strengthens, moves to our east and brings in cooler air. I believe in Nina's the northern stream tends to dominate, which has been what we have been seeing all winter. Now that we are looking at a Nino type flow, perhaps we can get the southern stream low to dominate. An extreme example of a southern low dominating would be Nemo in Feb 2013. Northern low cuts into Canada but the southern stream low strengthens and takes over. GFS. Northern stream now prominent with little surface reflection of the southern stream low.

Up to 63!

Yup I am at 61.

BDR Jan highs. Can they reach 70 for the first time? OT but wonder if the two day stretch of 60 plus in 1916 will ever be broken. Rank Temperature Date 1 69 °F January 12, 2020 2 68 °F January 6, 2007 2 68 °F January 29, 2002 2 68 °F January 14, 1932 5 65 °F January 9, 2008 5 65 °F January 27, 1974 5 65 °F January 28, 1916 5 65 °F January 27, 1916 5 65 °F January 7, 1907

Absolutely beautiful outside today!

For snow lovers two reasons to hold out some hope 1.) Duration=volatility. 2 plus months to go, therefore hard to rule out flukes like February 2018. 2.) Return of the block. As Don, Bluewave pointed out blocking tends to return when it presents itself in December. Therefore there is a chance it could happen February or March and provide some benefit

I think the forum is so spread out it's hard to gauge who has been successful late season. Speaking for coastal SW CT, March has delivered more often than not. For instance, March 2019 (the forgotten March due to 2018) received 2 snowstorms totalling 11.5 below. Snowiest month of the year of course. How much did your back yard get?

Late February and March have shorter wavelengths and volatility, so that would be a target.

Yeah I exaggerated a bit, and 00/01 was well above average for snowfall (similar to how 20/21 was above average snowfall). 99/2000 mirrored last year w/r/t snowfall totals. Both 5 year stretches with a couple ratters and 1 good winter each. Personally, 97/98 was my all time low of 3.5 and first snowfall of March. I am at 1.5 so still in the game for an all time low snowfall season. Difference being this year we wasted a golden opportunity while 97/98 was a furnace from day 1.

My local news stated that we may break high temp record set in 1998. Fits the bill as that was another 5 year snowless stretch of winters.