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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Okay, if you want snow this would be the time. AO drops while PNA rises.
  2. EastonSN+
    Great post by JBenedet
  3. EastonSN+
    Great post by CAPE.
  4. EastonSN+
    This is another reason this winter fascinates me. We had three distinct patterns already. Two of them, back to back, were the absolute worst pattern types for snow you can imagine, in the same year, in back to back months. THATS rare!
  5. EastonSN+
    Both patterns are completely horrible for snow. There is more potential for volatility in an strong RNA pattern than a stable maritime air pattern. So for a strong RNA pattern you will get higher temp departures due to the SE ridge. However you have better chances for snow as the cold can be tapped into/dragged over briefly. For a maritime 97/98 pattern, your average temps are lower due to the maritime air and tons of moisture, however there is no cold source in the entire continent to tap into. When a storm bombs out, it drags in air from the north. When Canada is well above average it's harder to wrap in cold enough air.
  6. EastonSN+
    Thanks. I think this past January is a good recent example of 97/98. No chance when the entire continent is scoured of cold air.
  7. EastonSN+
    That's all I am trying to get at. This January was a recent version of 97/98. That's why in 97/98 we waited till late March.
  8. EastonSN+
    Yeah agreed that neither pattern is good. I was just comparing a 97/98 vs. La Nina pattern like now. No cold in our continent vs. to our west.
  9. EastonSN+
    So this works. Compare this January to this February. Do not look at the average temps. Looks at the H5 and cold anomalies.
  10. EastonSN+
    Massive difference between no cold air in our continent vs. to our west.
  11. EastonSN+
    I don't know the percentage but they do happen. BROOKLYNWX, Dark Star or any MET, am I explaining 97/98 incorrectly? Wouldn't a pattern like this where the cold is in our continent better for snow than 97/98 where the entire continent is flooded by maritime air?
  12. EastonSN+
    February 2010 had cold air in Canada to tap into. In 97/98 the entire continent was scoured of cold air from the Nino pattern.
  13. EastonSN+
    If you have cold air in the CONUS, you can either have a cutter pull the boundary east briefly and allow for a weak trailing wave or changeover. When there is NO cold in the CONUS, at our latitude, the only way you can snow is by a massive bomb I'm the exact right spot. Let's agree to disagree.
  14. EastonSN+
    The reason this winter was more conducive to snowfall than 97/98 is the fact that we have cold on our side of the globe. Yes we failed to time a trailing wave etc. In 97/98 North America was scoured of cold air from the El Nino. You could (and did) have perfect coastal tracks in 97/98 however there was absolutely no cold air to tap into.
  15. EastonSN+
    The two windows I provided are better than any window that presented itself in 97/98, however the way this winter has gone 97/98 will likely finish higher.
  16. EastonSN+
    This window can work for front end snow for northern and eastern areas of the sub forum.
  17. EastonSN+
    This looks like the next window.
  18. EastonSN+
    So looking back in history, it seems that the two patterns that create winters such as this are strong Ninos or Ninas (conscious that there are other factors).
  19. EastonSN+
    1998 would have finished with 0.5 had it not been for that one late March event. That year felt far more hopeless than this one. In 97/98 we had a super Nino setup like January so there was no cold air in all of North America. Basically a warmer version of this past January.
  20. EastonSN+
    Thanks as always Don. So far the component that amazes me the most about this season has been the fact that we have not even had a fluke event. 01/02, 97/98 both had them in worse full season patterns IMO (striking out in December was what set this off and running). The fact that we had a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 70s and 60s shows how rare this year is. Moving forward, although the RNA will continue to dominate and boost the SER, there are 2 relatively small windows in the ensembles where we can get that one event. If we do not hit on either, I would have to put this winter as the most unique.
  21. EastonSN+
    See, this is how you ruin a blocking pattern. https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/california-forecast-to-see-low-elevation-snow-17796312.php Nearly entire population of California expected 'to see' snow
  22. EastonSN+
    Don had a stat which showed that 6+ events were more common when the SD of the PNA was -1.0 or higher. This year the RNA overwhelmed the blocking. I would imagine the same for +PNA, where the closer you are to a SD of 0 the better.
  23. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! I hope the weeklies are correct, however not sure what mechanism can dislodge/ weaken the RNA
  24. EastonSN+
    Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup.
  25. EastonSN+
    In the image in my previous post, imagine if the la Nina forcing was weaker. You would end up squeezing the PV like an orange and allow the cold to move under the block. Instead the La Nina forcing is so strong the RNA is just too deep and you "link" the SER to the PV.
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