EastonSN+

Wonder what emojis they had to select back then...

Was 1933 the same as that was a torch too. Also in the above, is that a south based NAO linking with the SE ridge?

Amazing how fast temps climbing. 38.

1932 and 1933 back to back torch January's. Wish we had the H5 plots for that.

Up to 37. Thank goodness the kids are having an early dismissal

Wonder how warm this winters temp departure would be if we did not have a colder than average December.

Already up to 36.

Yeah I was pondering the head-fakes of this year. That being said, we are kind of following the la Nina blueprint so far. Early season snow for half the forum and neg NAO with potential in December occurred (the 2nd storm messed up the 3rd but that's another discussion). The warm/snowless January and potentially Feb. Late February and March are typically the other window in la Ninas. Sure we could go 11/12 warmth but return of blocking when occurence in December, la Nina tendencies, make me think that this could be legit.

Real still.

Oh man I hope so, at 1.5 for the season so eclipsing 2.0 would be a big moral boost.

I have a feeling they are being over cautious given that they have not had to use any this year to date.

From the MA forum. Found this interesting. Models are probably rushing this but would align with the latest MJO plots.

It's really early, however I have to start wondering if CPK can go through the season with under 1 inch. If will be difficult with the favorable period coming up as well as the late season volatility, however going into Feb under 1 you have to start contemplating. Per the below we may be heading towards phase 8 earlier than expected in February. That may be the make or break period if the 5 to 7 day window in Early Feb fails. I believe Phase 8 leads to Blocking, which would follow the guideline of blocking late season after realizing blocking in December.

Schools early dismissal. WTF!

The 90s are a better comp. IMO.

Let's give it time. When we stop seeing historic snowfall seasons to our south like last year in the Delmarva, or historic low temps like this year in Russia, then we know it's over. We can have separate conclusions and revisit in a couple years. IMO 2000 through 2018 was 1955 through 1969 with the bouts of blocking and east coast troughs. Now we are in a 1990s patter. Before the board explodes YES it IS WARMER.

I mean we still have until the MJO gets out of phase 3 to score something. Would not be surprised with a moderate event. How long does it take to get back to 8?

So far the Blocking has not returned as it typically does following blocking in December. I know we all expect it/fear if for April.

I hope we roast, none of this crappy rain every other day depressing setup.

I think we need more information. We will have 4 below average snowfall seasons in 5 years. If we get 1 above average and 1 average snowfall winter in the next 5 we will match the 90s Now, if we only get 1 average or above average snowfall winter over next 5, then we at least have some evidence. Also, if we go 20 years with less than 5 average to below average snowfall winters. The problem when correlating CC to snowfall is that we have had a wretched stretch from 1970 through 1999, so it will take a LOT to definitively correlate the two. Also who knows how CC will ultimately affect our snowfall chances. Some of those terrible 80s winters where all the snow was to our south may end up squarely hitting us. Now our 80s patter repeat could be historically snowy. To sum up, nobody at this time can make a definitive statement that the current (only 5 year) stretch is "the new norm". It's impossible to know. We need more time.

Looks like yet another pure rain event down here. Still at 1.5 for the season. Pathetic.

I won't feel comfortable till I see snow over long island

Your destroying me this season! White rain today stuck at 1.5.

But how do you know this is the case already? If this has happened numerous times in the past, for longer periods, how do we know? I mean if we go 4 more years and only one is above average? However no way to tell yet.

The issue I am taking is not that it's getting warmer, it's that I feel as though EVERY reason we don't snow or it's warm is ultimately attributed to warming. Two things can co exist. We CAN be warmer and we CAN be in a low snowfall period that has happened in the past. Why can't both be true?