EastonSN+

Imo it's too far NW this early in the game. That's one tick from a changeover 84 south.

Novice question but would "occlusion" stop mixing even if very tucked?

Sweating bullets here on south coast. Too close for comfort for mixing.

Hey Walt did those come more NW? If the NW trend started already not a good sign.

Temps look iffy based on rain snow lines but with those tracks prolly mostly snow.

Wow just looked what a flip. We loose the NAO after week 3 but the PNA spikes giving us the trough the following weeks.

Good ole fashioned Long Island Sound dividing line. I would think the block would limit these moves nw.

I will be honest Forky giving hints of rain scares me. He usually chimes in when he is confident. However he jokes a lot too so not sure if he is just pulling chains.

NAO according to GEFS already trending towards neutral. Do not have EPS so not sure if it aligns. Hopefully it will go negative again.

They have me at 42 during the storm. Imagine we finally get our long deserved NAO and it still rains.

Anyone have the EPS day 15? GEFS looks good.

How does EPs look in long range past day 10. Does it keep blocking in place? Thanks

December 2000 was the most west Miller b I can think of with Western NJ jackpots

Does it help that it's low amplification? Wonder if it had similar amplification in 1996.

Negative 23.5 in 74 had to hurt. JK. Thanks for the data. I would gladly take 00-01.

At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible.

I hope we can. Have not had snow cover since last may

I think the forum would be optimistic if we had 2 good years in a row instead of 2 below average. This IO warm pool is most concerning as it seems to be dominating our weather and it's unrelenting. Question is when it will cool down

WTF - i say WTH cause not sure if good or bad just a ton of blue. Guessing large spread in the ensembles.

You had the NYC area close to average so they would be happy too.

Thanks Don.

Definitely. The way things have gone last 5 years you would think eastern NE would average more snow than Western ne. Cyclical.

Hey Don hate to bother, however once the pattern flips to Pacific flow dominace do you feel that we will have "breaks" in the pattern favorable to cold/snow in Jan and Feb, or so you believe we are heading towards a 2011 2012 type pattern stability? 2016 2017 would be a good example of the former. For the latter of course with the "fluke" scenario and March volatility taken aside. The reason I personally feel better about this winter is the warm pool in the NE Pacific and the blocking that for some reason is showing itself.

Yeah don't think a quarter of that falls this way

Let's hope we score something before it happens.