EastonSN+

Too far off the coast but 500 mile shifts are nothing these days.

Low pressure # 15 please

Too bad this little critter dies out. Could have been our participation trophy.

Less than that. They literally flipped in 24 hours from an epic extended look to a big rainstorm and warmth. In my mind day 10 onwards on the ensembles are extinct like the weeklies.

Hey, if it's not going to snow the next best thing is nice warm weather. Bring it on!

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age

THIS is where the ridge off the east coast would be handy! Instead of this wave sliding off the coast, would hopefully move it NNE. Not expecting anything just a snapshot in modeling time.

Took from MA forum - perhaps this is what you were looking for?

Yeah there is definitely an opportunity after the cutter. GEM was close.

Yup. Happened before will happen again.

I wish I could believe what the models are actually showing. My confidence in them are extremely shaken. I am ok with a warm up. Want to avoid 45 and rainy.

Side note for the newbies - this 4 year stretch is nothing compared to 96/97 through 01/02. That period had two absolute ratters and was warmer. That being said, a similarity would be each stretch had 1 above average snowfall winter (00/01 and 20/21). This year is to be decided of course. 12/13 also had 1 snowfall in December as well and turned out well especially City east. We shall see but will be fun either way.

WRT this upcoming storm, still holding out a LITTLE hope that we can get a coating to 2 inches before the changeover. Long shot but fun to track. Season snowfall to date - 1.5.

Lol check out the one ensemble member that goes off the chart in 6.

Ha. I guess one good thing about not trusting the ensembles past day 7 is I can ignore the new bad look

Agree on pattern recognition focus. However, this horrific performance by the ensembles is just outright disappointing and pathetic. They are supposed to be a tool for those in the meteorology profession. Now I just look at them past day 7 the same way I look at weeklies - entertainment. Maybe I am overreacting but jeez.

And just like the weeklies were made irrelevant after the 19/20 season, day 8 onwards of the ensembles seem to be useless. Really disappointing, and IMO more disappointing than this snowstorm opportunity miss. Relegated to using the op runs and ensembles just to see individual low pressure placement under 8 days. Terrible.

That may be the case, but what made them suddenly latch on now? Why not before? What is in the algorithm that suddenly recognized this warm pool and completely change the entire look. Other than an upgrade to all three suites at the same time, I cannot see how it was just suddenly picked up cause it was always there.

On a general note, and it may be banter, but I am extremely disappointed with the way the ensemble LR guidance completely flipped on a dime. Back in 19/20 I remember everyone was watching the weeklies which showed a great pattern week three onwards. Then we slowly realized the look would never materialize and now the weeklies are barely posted. Now all three ensemble suites completely flipped day 8 onwards. This is very disappointing and shakes my confidence in anything shown past day seven. It can flip back to a favorable look, but that would just exasperate the issue.

Another great post by coastalwx.

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average. I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one.

Seriously. Just yesterday they showed a great pattern and in a couple runs they totally flipped for the LR. They can just as easily flip again. So anyone taking a NYE torch as gospel just needs to look at the runs the past two days!

Great post from CoastalWX!

Thanks. I am dying to see the H5 plot for that month. I do believe in global warming due to human and natural causes, however I have a hard time believing a -4 NAO will never work again I'm December. Rather, the failure was due to small nuances that did not line up. I would take my chances with a Neg NAO in December every chance I get!