roardog

These snowfall deficits are still all pattern driven though. The pattern has been bad for big snow for years now for Ohio to the north and east into parts of Ontario like Toronto. There’s also probably some bad luck in there too. Since the PDO went back negative after the super Nino of ‘15-‘16, any +PNA patterns have been very short lived during the cold season. There’s also been very little sustained high latitude blocking. Once you get south and east of Michigan, it’s tough to keep sustained winter weather with a -PNA and no blocking. I believe Jan and Feb 2022 had a +PNA in the means and guess what? Most of of this sub ended up with a cold winter. Snow is obviously fluky so a cold winter doesn’t always guarantee a lot of snow of course.

There’s a lot of over reaction in here. The pattern we had this winter and last winter would have resulted in very warm winters even if it was 1895. When we start seeing above normal temps in “cold” patterns then we can start to worry that it will never snow or be cold again. I mean look how cold it was over the entire western half of the country just last winter. Most of this sub had a cold winter just two years ago and that’s after a warm December. It’ll get cold again if the pattern supports it.

The GFS and its ensembles actually have some pretty big changes around and after day 10 compared to the 0Z run.

Well then look at the 500MB height anomalies and they’re going to look very similar to ‘72-‘73. We had the almost Nina like pattern for a minute in January. December ‘72 had a Nina like pattern for awhile also I believe. Both of those instances could be due to the -PDO. That’s probably why the northern Rockies and northern plains aren’t the center of the warmth. It’s actually pushed a little more east which is bad for here and your area. I thought the -PDO might help keep some colder air around but in the end, it looks like it just pushes the biggest warmth east because of more -PNA.

The temp anomalies across the country are going to look exactly like a strong Nino when winter ends. It’s going to look strikingly similar to ‘72-‘73 which as we know, was also a -PDO winter.

I don’t think many people comprehend how little snow has to fall in a winter for futility records around this region. I mean look how bad things have been in the UP for businesses that rely on winter, yet a place like Calumet is already well above their futility records and it’s only mid February.

I remember how both the 2007 and 2016 collapsing Nino had a warm March that turned back to Winter in a big way for the first half of April. I think 1983 did that too.

Wow. The early 20th century sure had a lot of low snow winters. Calumet is already over 100 inches this winter and it’s only mid Feb. I can’t even imagine how snowless those winters felt at the time.

We had quite a few t-storms last summer but it was never really “hot” to the south. If it’s 100F with a dew point of 75F in Chicago and “cool” in central Ontario, that’s when we get the good nocturnal stuff. T-storms developing in northern Minnesota/Wisconsin in the late afternoon means watch out here that night.

We need the heat dome to be strong to the south so we can get some interesting weather here during the summer. Being on the edge of the heat is the place to be during the summer. 1995 comes to mind.

What do the least snowiest records look like around there? There’s obviously a lot of winter to go there but I would think this winter would be in the running right now.

Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means.

What you just described is a normal Michigan spring so it’s no surprise that’s the way springs have been lately.

There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino.

I’m not sure I’d trust any ice south of Hudson Bay this winter. lol

I thought last fall I saw someone(maybe Raindance) post a map showing that a strong/super Nino actually has a corridor of above normal precip near here in the winter. That surprised me but then I remembered how ‘15-‘16 actually had some big storms come through this area after December. Of course this year, we saw a very non Nino like pattern in January with that cold stretch with the coldest air being in the northern plains. That along with a positive SOI for the month, brought a more Nina like pattern which could help explain the wetness around here.

Those are just high temperature anomalies.

When the Lions were playing like an unstoppable force in the first half, I was thinking about how playing the Packers might have been a much tougher game. Then the second half happened and I changed my mind. lol

That Falcons second half collapse in the Super Bowl was somehow even worse than the second half collapse of the Lions in the championship game.

Raindance has had a cold and stormy March for most of the country. It’ll be interesting to see if it happens. He’s had a good winter forecast.

How does grass even grow this far north in January? I would think the sun angle alone would prohibit it.

Since it's going to be mild, hopefully we can get the rare sunny and mild winter weather. Then maybe it could at least freeze at night to keep the ridiculous mud down a little. Maybe we can accomplish that for awhile with the dry easterly flow coming up.

I don’t know. This weather might be even less interesting than taxes.

I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state.

No. Those winters were all cold. The warm ones you listed were due to rooftop temperatures. lol