roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts.
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I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually?
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I guess if weak averages -7 and strong averages -8, there isn’t a whole lot of value in this measurement when it comes to seasonal forecasting.
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I didn’t say I disagreed with any of it.
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I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol
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A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.
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Calling it massive might be a little bit of exaggeration.
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Isn’t there also a lag when it comes to Enso impacting North America?
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How about we just build snowcover in Canada this year and see how that works out.
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That composite looks like it has a low west of Alaska while the current look has a huge Nina like ridge.
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In that case, I guess we shouldn’t even consider your opinion and just stick to the numerous meteorologists that post in this thread.
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But there were higher heights in the west with no SE ridge so there’s still only certain aspects that are Nina like. Still seems to be a forcing battle going on.
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When it comes down to it, the only metric showing a strong Nino is the ONI. Every other metric would have you believe this is a weak to moderate Nino. Even the long streak of negative SOI only has the 90 day average at -11 so while the streak is impressive, the average is not in “strong Nino” territory. The underlying ocean warming has to be playing a role in distorting( if that’s the right word I’m looking for) the look of this event.
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It seems silly to have U.P. counties that have a 6 inch criteria bordering counties with an 8 inch criteria. That is unnecessarily confusing in my opinion.
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It’s updated on Cyclonicwx. It’s at 1.69 today.
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It’s the tweet you posted. lol
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My point is that if it advances rapidly at the end of the month like Judah hints at, you would want it to start low.
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I always thought it was the advancement during the month of October that mattered not the overall snow cover for the month.
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I guess that’s the point I was making too. It always strengthens in the Fall so are we supposed to be surprised or alarmed by this?
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Doesn’t the polar vortex always strengthen this time of year?
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Nino 4 up to +1.5 today.
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Has Paul Roundy said anything recently about believing it will go super?
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He goes from making snow to painting grass.
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Aren’t you the person that used to make snow to cover your yard?
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They haven’t been above freezing in at least the last 3 days and the highest forecasted temp there this week is 33. Their normal high is 28, so it only has to be 5 degrees above normal to be above freezing.
