roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Isn’t that similar to what happened in 1925?
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I’m guessing the very warm Atlantic waters are helping New England in recent years too.
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I was going to say, how did Maine have the hottest July on record? I wasn’t paying that close attention to that area but it couldn’t have been that hot in Maine with the pattern we had in July. Maine must have had record high dewpoints for the month or something.
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The models have just been bad all around. They keep trying to move the warmth out of 1+2 and into 3.4, probably because they have been showing a favorable pattern to warm 3.4 in the mid range all summer that never comes to fruition. I kind of feel like if 3.4 does finally start to take off that 1.2 will then cool because the warmth will move out of that area. The subsurface under 3.4 isn’t that impressive.
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I was going to ask how the Great Lakes could be that far above normal when it hasn’t even been a hot summer but then I looked closely and realized they’re using 1971-2000 as a base.
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Is the strongest WWB since early June really saying much though?
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Over the course of how many years? lol
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Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.
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It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.
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Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.
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You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak.
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It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.
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Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST.
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I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August.
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CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile.
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1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually.
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Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December.
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Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype.
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I see it now. The moderate Nino starts with ‘09. I guess I was confused there for a minute. lol
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Since when was ‘72 a moderate Nino?
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I’m still confused about the coming strong MJO wave that keeps showing up in tweets. I still don’t see anything indicating that. Any previous model runs that had a decent MJO are back to nothing again.
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I’ve been looking at CDAS and it looks like the southern hemisphere is on fire toward Antarctica. That area is probably a large portion of the extreme global warmth right now. Obviously the sea ice down there is very low too.
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This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is?
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Cyclical or Natural Predictable Climate Change Forum
roardog replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Phoenix had a “cool” June so I wonder if that plays a role somewhat. Does that help delay the moisture from the monsoon a little which in turns allows it to get a bit hotter now in late July? I’m not terribly familiar with the desert SW climate so it’s just something I was thinking about. -
At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that.
