roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.
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It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.
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Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.
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You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak.
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It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.
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Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST.
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I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August.
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CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile.
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1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually.
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Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December.
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Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype.
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I see it now. The moderate Nino starts with ‘09. I guess I was confused there for a minute. lol
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Since when was ‘72 a moderate Nino?
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I’m still confused about the coming strong MJO wave that keeps showing up in tweets. I still don’t see anything indicating that. Any previous model runs that had a decent MJO are back to nothing again.
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I’ve been looking at CDAS and it looks like the southern hemisphere is on fire toward Antarctica. That area is probably a large portion of the extreme global warmth right now. Obviously the sea ice down there is very low too.
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This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is?
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Cyclical or Natural Predictable Climate Change Forum
roardog replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Phoenix had a “cool” June so I wonder if that plays a role somewhat. Does that help delay the moisture from the monsoon a little which in turns allows it to get a bit hotter now in late July? I’m not terribly familiar with the desert SW climate so it’s just something I was thinking about. -
At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that.
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This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol
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I was just going to ask where this talk of a major MJO wave keeps coming from. I’ve seen nothing other than the weeklies which have been less than stellar to say the least.
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At least he’s banned from your sub forum. lol
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Yeah. We should stick to posting fantasy model runs showing 3.4 peaking at 3C in 5 months instead.
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Yeah. So it kind of ties in with the RONI.
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Last year the MEI was indicative of a stronger Nina than what the ONI showed. Maybe the MEI is a better indicator than ONI in the current climate.
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Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March… I haven’t posted anything even close to that. I’ve posted about how the CFS continues to forecast 1+2 to begin dropping rapidly which seems to defy the current subsurface conditions.
