roardog

I wonder if in a place like Buffalo, if you need a warm June to get a record July. If you had a cool June and Lake Erie wasn’t so warm I think it would be much harder to get that record.

Without looking up the data, it doesn’t seem like it’s been dry around here. The early 2010s had some dryness(especially 2012) but it doesn’t seem like it’s been very dry the past several summers. Again, this is without looking up the actual data.

Alcohol withdrawal can be serious but so can getting the low paid cashier at the store infected with Covid-19 from the customer that couldn’t go without his whiskey since a liquor store is essential.

I’m all for non essential businesses and outings being closed. So, let’s then have all non essential businesses and outings actually closed. Lottery essential? lol. Liquor stores essential? Even bigger lol. Do we really even need fast food drive thru open?

I guess I should have read the original post more clearly. It’s for the city of Champaign. That is crazy stuff though.

So what law did Illinois pass? I can’t seem to find info on it.

It looks like we haven’t had a PDO reading that negative since 2013. That’s probably a sign that things are changing in the Pacific.

Do you think another weak Nino/warm neutral year is coming?

I’m pretty sure a strong El Niño isn’t known for a SE ridge and strong blocking SW of Alaska like we are headed. If anything that looks more like a strong La Niña.

I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are: A lack of precip(extremely boring) The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far.

I like the long range discussions you have in this sub forum even if I don’t live in it. Anyway, the pattern on the EPS and GEFS toward day 15 look more “Niña” to me. I wonder if we will start to see a rise in the SOI coming up. If we do start to see a rise in the SOI , I bet the MJO will come out of the COD too. It could also be that the day 15 look is completely wrong. lol I think watching this evolve is really interesting and also shows the limitations of both humans and models with forecasting even only two weeks out.

The current look toward day 15 on both the GEFS and EPS looks kind of “Nina” to me. It looks like it would be stormy in this sub forum if that look became reality.

Isn’t it unusual though for a second year El Niño to just keep strengthening through Spring right into Summer and Autumn? Doesn’t it usually dissipate a bit during the Spring before re-organizing during the Summer and Autumn?

Do you think Nino again next Winter?

Must be an offshore wind lol. The current observation is 62/59. I see they had temps in the upper 60s with the dewpoints in the upper 50s yesterday. That must feel so warm to the residents there. It looks like rain and snow showers in the forecast in a couple of days though.

Yes and I 100% guarantee that it will not be that warm.

Once we get into winter, is there a point where a blocky pattern can favor sea ice development? Wouldn't that correlate to lighter winds and less ice being flushed out?