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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    Weatherbell had above normal temps forecasted for last winter for the entire east coast. Other than maybe DT, I don’t think there were many forecasts for below normal temperatures in the east.
  2. roardog
    I feel like some of the models overreact to the sub surface temps. I feel like that’s what happened in 2012. It also happened with the Nina in 2016. I remember how many of the models in the spring were showing a strong Nina coming. In reality it remained very weak and the PDO remained positive that winter I believe.
  3. roardog
    It reminds me of this time last year when the hype was about how strong the Nina was going to be. That hype didn’t pan out.
  4. roardog
    Isn’t there often cold water around Australia before a stronger El Niño which also correlates to a more negative SOI?
  5. roardog
    I wonder if a strong -PDO such as we have now would hamper the development of a very Strong Nino. What was the PDO like before the ‘72 Nino? I know the Pacific was primed and ready for the ‘15-16 Nino.
  6. roardog
    ‘92 wasn’t a super, just strong. He’s talking about Super El Niño. It was only 10 years between the ‘72 and ‘82 Super Nino though.
  7. roardog
    Maybe cooler wasn’t the correct word to use. When I say cooler I mean Dallas, Texas has above normal rainfall with most days under 100F as opposed to a pattern where it’s dry as a bone in Dallas and there’s a record number of 100F days. I’m just using Dallas as an example of what I mean by cooler and wetter pattern in the US. Probably another one of those summers where nighttime lows are well above normal and daytime highs are not.
  8. roardog
    They must have had a huge forecast bust there. I wasn’t paying too much attention but they had a winter storm watch and winter storm warning from the storm a couple of days ago but apparently got very little snow.
  9. roardog
    I know most people here don’t care about summer but I wonder if the extra water vapor plus developing El Niño could lead to a cooler, wet summer this year.
  10. roardog
    His Morch calls are in trouble deeper than the snow in his yard.
  11. roardog
    It’s March now so yes snow retention in Chicago will suck until late next year.
  12. roardog
    Snowing harder than it has all winter here. Piling up fast.
  13. roardog
    The euro says you’ll get into the 60s on Thursday for a minute. At least you have that possibly.
  14. roardog
    That matters to a point but if surface temps get low enough, there will be problems on trees and power lines even if the roads aren't that bad. I was skeptical back in April 2003 of significant icing but with temps in the upper 20s, we even had ice accretion during the day with an early September sun angle.
  15. roardog
    This one could be quite an ice storm somewhere since it will have a ton of moisture and respectable shallow cold to the north of the front.
  16. roardog
    It’s kind of off topic but I remember during the April 2003 ice storm, it was in the upper 20s here and in the low 70s in the far southern part of the state before the cold pushed south along with the freezing rain.
  17. roardog
    As the southern US starts to warm in March, the temperature contrast really gets wild and therefore so can the snow on the cold side. You gotta love when it’s snowing and 30F at your house and 70F a 3 hour drive away.
  18. roardog
    I don’t know if it’s even possible to get weather warm enough for long enough to cause the trees to bud here in February.
  19. roardog
    I recall Feb 2018 being quite mild then March and April were brutal. Ice storm in mid to late April here. That year was transitioning from Nina to Nino too. Hmmm.
  20. roardog
    These things tend to have over achieving temps south of the low track. Wherever the wind manages to go SW, there will probably be a mini torch. These can be frustrating in the spring when it’s 70F south of the front and 40F with rain and fog north of it. Thankfully, it’s January so I’d rather be on the cold side of it.
  21. roardog
    Sorry Minnesota posters but today will probably start the SE and weaker trend.
  22. roardog
    I think we can all agree that the bottom line is that Bevis just has unrealistic expectations for where he lives. Northern Minnesota would be a better place for him to live. I’m not sure even the UP of Michigan would work because it doesn’t get cold enough there.
  23. roardog
    I know Detroit doesn’t represent the entire Midwest but I always enjoy when a poster tries to say they remember something about a specific year or decade then michsnowfreak comes along with the actual stats which are usually nothing like that poster remembers. lol
  24. roardog
    The new England and mid Atlantic forums are getting some epic meltdowns now. lol
  25. roardog
    Obviously the Pacific is warmer now than it was 40 years ago so that could add on a couple of degrees but with a trough from Alaska to Mexico, there’s nothing but Pacific air throughout the US and Canada. Is it really that different than a month like January 1990 that had the same set up but with a cooler Pacific Ocean?
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