roardog

They don’t have a precip map as far as I can see, just a percentage of normal snowfall map. Basically the 100% of normal line is along Lake Michigan, so anywhere east of that has below normal snowfall. They have a pocket of less than 75% of normal snowfall around the mid Atlantic region. In other words, our area all the way east into New England is between 75 and 100 percent of normal snowfall.

Apparently testing was way up, which is a good thing. Positivity rate was only 3.1% which is actually below the 7 day average.

Something that I’ve noticed here this summer is that there’s been an unusually low amount of thunder and lightning. Even when we’ve had convection, there hasn’t been much thunder and lightning with it. Usually with a hot summer, you get a good amount of lightning. Anyone else notice that?

I wonder if in a place like Buffalo, if you need a warm June to get a record July. If you had a cool June and Lake Erie wasn’t so warm I think it would be much harder to get that record.

Without looking up the data, it doesn’t seem like it’s been dry around here. The early 2010s had some dryness(especially 2012) but it doesn’t seem like it’s been very dry the past several summers. Again, this is without looking up the actual data.

Alcohol withdrawal can be serious but so can getting the low paid cashier at the store infected with Covid-19 from the customer that couldn’t go without his whiskey since a liquor store is essential.

I’m all for non essential businesses and outings being closed. So, let’s then have all non essential businesses and outings actually closed. Lottery essential? lol. Liquor stores essential? Even bigger lol. Do we really even need fast food drive thru open?

I guess I should have read the original post more clearly. It’s for the city of Champaign. That is crazy stuff though.

So what law did Illinois pass? I can’t seem to find info on it.

Are the residents of Winnipeg jealous of you Toronto folks in the Spring with your "warm" weather? lol

I liked it better about 12 or 13 years ago when everything trended NW and stronger. It was exciting because someone ended up with big totals at the last minute. Now, the area the gets the jackpot ends up with a couple of inches. lol. I can’t wait for someone to be in an enhanced severe weather area this Spring only to end up with a 45 degree steady rain. lol

Most here should be in good shape for some snow once the storm inevitably trends south/weaker.

It looks like we haven’t had a PDO reading that negative since 2013. That’s probably a sign that things are changing in the Pacific.

Still couldn’t get the yellow orb here. Only made it to about 40F.

Do you think another weak Nino/warm neutral year is coming?

Around here the euro is showing heavy rain with temps in the upper 20s. That would be wild and destructive. One part of me would like to see that but the other part doesn’t want to deal with the consequences. I would rather it just snow. Lol

Icon coming south.The beginning of the SE trend? Lol

I’m pretty sure a strong El Niño isn’t known for a SE ridge and strong blocking SW of Alaska like we are headed. If anything that looks more like a strong La Niña.

I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are: A lack of precip(extremely boring) The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far.

I like the long range discussions you have in this sub forum even if I don’t live in it. Anyway, the pattern on the EPS and GEFS toward day 15 look more “Niña” to me. I wonder if we will start to see a rise in the SOI coming up. If we do start to see a rise in the SOI , I bet the MJO will come out of the COD too. It could also be that the day 15 look is completely wrong. lol I think watching this evolve is really interesting and also shows the limitations of both humans and models with forecasting even only two weeks out.

The current look toward day 15 on both the GEFS and EPS looks kind of “Nina” to me. It looks like it would be stormy in this sub forum if that look became reality.

Everyone in this subforum would love the current Weatherbell winter forecast.

Major ridging near Alaska seems to be the new thing the last few years. At least it helps the cold lovers in the lower 48 during the cold season.

5 months from now it will be October. Everything in your post will be happening well before then. Lol

Isn’t it unusual though for a second year El Niño to just keep strengthening through Spring right into Summer and Autumn? Doesn’t it usually dissipate a bit during the Spring before re-organizing during the Summer and Autumn?