roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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I’m going to be an outlier and say +.9-1.2 peak.
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So +1.5-1.9 tri monthly peak?
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What strength do you forecast this Nino to peak at?
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I never said anything about what you thought would happen. lol
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Yeah. You were right on with intensity despite all of twitter telling us it was going to be the strongest in 5000 years(maybe I exaggerated a bit there).
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I remember all the tweets snowman 19 posted last year about how we were going to have a strong Nina this past Winter.
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I went to Tennessee for the 2017 eclipse. Be prepared for traffic like you’ve never seen. Map out and plan back road routes because if it’s anything like I experienced in 2017, traffic will be at a stand still on the interstates.
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This is why I don’t agree with people who say we’re in a -PDO period that started in the late ‘90s.
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December 72 didn't look anything like a Nino across the US. The coldest temp anomalies were in the northern plains. Maybe from the -PDO?
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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I meant the pattern we had in winter not a winter like pattern. lol -
Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It looks like the winter pattern is coming back with troughs digging into Mexico. -
Anywhere on the map between the normal line and the plus one line is above normal. So, the entire east coast is above normal on that map. Obviously, it was much warmer than that forecast but my point was that there wasn’t any big east coast cold and snow hype in Weatherbell’s forecast like George claimed.
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Weatherbell had above normal temps forecasted for last winter for the entire east coast. Other than maybe DT, I don’t think there were many forecasts for below normal temperatures in the east.
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I feel like some of the models overreact to the sub surface temps. I feel like that’s what happened in 2012. It also happened with the Nina in 2016. I remember how many of the models in the spring were showing a strong Nina coming. In reality it remained very weak and the PDO remained positive that winter I believe.
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It reminds me of this time last year when the hype was about how strong the Nina was going to be. That hype didn’t pan out.
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Isn’t there often cold water around Australia before a stronger El Niño which also correlates to a more negative SOI?
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I wonder if a strong -PDO such as we have now would hamper the development of a very Strong Nino. What was the PDO like before the ‘72 Nino? I know the Pacific was primed and ready for the ‘15-16 Nino.
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‘92 wasn’t a super, just strong. He’s talking about Super El Niño. It was only 10 years between the ‘72 and ‘82 Super Nino though.
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Maybe cooler wasn’t the correct word to use. When I say cooler I mean Dallas, Texas has above normal rainfall with most days under 100F as opposed to a pattern where it’s dry as a bone in Dallas and there’s a record number of 100F days. I’m just using Dallas as an example of what I mean by cooler and wetter pattern in the US. Probably another one of those summers where nighttime lows are well above normal and daytime highs are not.
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They must have had a huge forecast bust there. I wasn’t paying too much attention but they had a winter storm watch and winter storm warning from the storm a couple of days ago but apparently got very little snow.
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I know most people here don’t care about summer but I wonder if the extra water vapor plus developing El Niño could lead to a cooler, wet summer this year.
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His Morch calls are in trouble deeper than the snow in his yard.
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It’s March now so yes snow retention in Chicago will suck until late next year.
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Snowing harder than it has all winter here. Piling up fast.
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The euro says you’ll get into the 60s on Thursday for a minute. At least you have that possibly.
