roardog

This image from Joe Daleo is a little outdated but it’s pretty neat to see at what point of the solar cycle La Niña or El Niño is favored.

He’s probably still busy sticking a fork in June.

You must be in Dayton. I hear they never get above 89.

Yeah it’s uncomfortably warm outside but the hype about the “heat” this week was something else. I suppose if we would have had full sun the last couple of days then it would have been a bigger deal but even then the 850 temps around 20C are warm but nothing that doesn’t happen on occasion here in the Summer. The Gaylord office didn’t even issue any headlines and the eastern part of their area had highs in the 90s yesterday and today.

It’s really hard to do because even if the air mass stays warm enough, the surface heat often gets interrupted by convection or convective debris. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens this time after midweek.

This is something that Joe Daleo wrote awhile back about solar cycle and hurricanes. The actual radiation changes only 0.1% from solar min to solar max, so some use that to ignore the sun. BUT the ultraviolet part of the spectrum changes 6-8% from min to max and produces high level warming through ozone chemistry in low to mid latitudes (Shindell NASA) where hurricanes develop and threaten. The most active Atlantic Basin hurricane years tend to be low sunspot years. Near the peak of the solar cycle, Hodges and Elsner found chances of a hurricane making landfall is just 25% but near solar min 64%.

Might as well stop running the model at this point. lol

I think it was Raindance that first brought up the topic of how he thought next winter would feature more of a -WPO. Without trying to find that post, I can’t remember his reasoning but I know he’s had some great success with forecasting those indices.

I would think a -WPO would help drive cold air more to the east in Canada. Even if there’s a strong SE ridge, having some very cold air not too far away would help your area and mine. We were missing that in 22-23.

Are models really showing a Modoki Nina? I know the CFSv2 is essentially showing a basin wide Nina with coolest area around region 3.4 with region 4 barely in Nina territory. 1+2 is also cool.

What is the source for this information? I'd like to read about it.

Anyone with critical thinking skills would agree with you. I guess somewhere I missed how Tonga throwing a massive amount of water vapor into the atmosphere can’t possibly have any impact. It seems like the timing would make sense too with how long it takes for the effects from volcanic eruptions to be felt globally.

I’ve read some dumb stuff online in the last 25 years or so that I’ve had access to the internet. I have to say though, that missile strikes on foreign fossil fuel assets to combat climate change might be the dumbest. Maybe the western pacific warm pool would diminish with nuclear winter. lol

How long does it usually take to get all of that information? I haven’t even seen an official VEI rating yet.

Coldest summer on record coming. Just kidding.

Do you have a link that shows the volcano eruption was a cumulative VEI 5? I’ve been waiting to read more about it but can’t find anything.

Looking at the overall picture right now, you would certainly have to favor above normal temps next winter in the east, especially south of New England. However, as I've said a million times, I still think there is a huge overreaction to the recent -PDO/mild eastern winters. What are we on about a 6 year stretch of -PDO now? That's hardly unheard of. Also, the '72-'73 super Nino had a -PDO, so that has happened before too. I highly doubt this is some kind of permanent change. We will see another +PDO winter, probably sometime later this decade.

I’m not on the east coast, but out here, it feels like a first year Nina performs better than a Nina that lasts multiple years. It feels like the winters get worse as the Nina continues over multiple winters. This isn’t always the case obviously but just a general observation.

Last year in May, it was a dry infernal in NW Canada so I could understand the wildfires but I don’t think it’s been that warm in NW Canada this month.

Probably because it’s like 1800 miles from you. lol

I generally don’t trust that the government or corporate America have my best interests in mind. I feel like I should always trust science but when it gets mixed in with government or corporate America I always start to lose some of my trust. Corporate America would kill all of us posting in this thread if it meant making money.

This thread is quiet compared to the El Niño thread last year. I guess Snowman19 doesn’t care about La Niña. I thought he would be around, especially with the chance that the coming Nina could be fairly strong.

So we will combat human induced climate change with human induced climate change? Sounds about right.

I think it was Jan 2006 where there was a night where it snowed for about 10 hours and literally none of it stuck. lol. It was just light snow but the temperature was around 35 the entire time it was snowing. Another one that I remember is April 2000 I think it was. There was a winter storm warning but none of it stuck that day although it snowed the entire day. It didn’t help that it was April but it was in the mid 30s the entire day. The following night, it dropped down to about 30 and we got a coating of snow on the grass.

The difference between heavy snow and 30 degrees and heavy snow and 33 or 34 degrees is huge imo. I actually kind of hate snowstorms where the surface temp is above freezing. It feels like you “waste” a lot of snow to melting but at the same time it sticks to everything and causes tree damage and power outages.