roardog

I had nearly a foot of snow in late April 2005. This was after highs in the 80s the week before. This is the equivalent of a mid August sun angle. I don’t think a late Feb sun angle is going to inhibit accumulation in Philadelphia if the snow is coming down at a decent clip.

I wasn’t talking about what someone said years ago. Nzucker hasn’t been alive for a few years now and I don’t think Raindance has posted in this thread in several years either.

I think you might have said this before too but that winter with a less amplified trough west/ridge east would actually be a very interesting winter here and possibly for you too.

Yes. Why would you want to take the chance of playing the biggest games of the season in a northern climate in November? That’s not good for the players or fans.

Remember when the Super Bowl used to be in January? Pretty soon there won’t be anymore Super Bowl snowstorms because it’ll be in April. lol Then people will talk about how cold and snowy it used to be during the Super Bowl back in the day. lol

The actual weather around here reminds me of 2017. I know August of 2017 was much cooler overall than this past August but it was similar in the sense that there was some bonified cool air around later in the month this year and in 2017, plus the beginning of September stayed cool in both years. After that, there was an extended period of unseasonable warmth just like this year. It was also a late developing Nina.

It looks like it didn't make it below 4 million this year.

Good job Cathy Smith for answering Americanwx questions this morning. lol

lol. I’m not sure there’s a single person on here that said that.

A “good” Nino around here can actually make for a long winter. When you get the early cold snaps in the Fall then keep that going right into Winter, it can make it feel like a long Winter. 2014-2015 almost had that except for the mild December but even that wasn’t an extreme torch. To the average person, I’m sure that felt like a long, cold Winter.

It’s not just in the enso regions either, there’s a big difference globally now it seems.

Wasn’t it Raindance that showed previously how a Modoki Nina is actually correlated to a cold December in the US?

I’ve always felt that the water temps out there are more a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of the pattern.

Reminds me of the old days when the NWS zone forecast would say unseasonably cold on a cold January day or unseasonably warm on a hot July day. I would always think, if this isn't the season to be warm/cold what season is? lol

What do you guys think about this post from Joe Daleo regarding QBO and solar max? The QBO influences what that means in the winter for solar max and solar min years. At solar max the west QBO favors lower than normal heights in low latitudes and higher heights in higher latitudes - with STRATWARM events (bottom right). If the La Nina persists we should expect the the opposite pattern (bottom right below). Does that imply wild swings? If La Nina fades, the opposite bottom right in the 4 pattern image would be more favored/more dominant.

I agree with you but I guess to be fair to Joshua Hawkins, how often are climate related articles written by someone that has any background on the subject? On the other hand, those articles usually at least have quotes or reference research done by someone in climate science. This article seems to have none of that.

https://bgr.com/science/no-one-can-figure-out-why-the-atlantic-ocean-is-cooling-at-record-speed/ Recently he’s been referencing this article.

For some reason I remember it being opposite and there being disagreement with it. But again, I’m talking early 00’s during the Wright Weather days. His stance could easily be different now 20+ years later.

I thought DT used to say it was a strong negative QBO that he believed resulted in a strong pacific jet. This was like 20 or 25 years ago that I’m talking about so my memory might be wrong.

There’s a pretty big difference between +4 and +8 at any given location. That’s as bad as a Farmer’s Almanac forecast.

He’s actually banned from the mid Atlantic forum. It is too bad he has the post limit. I also hope he keeps posting here. He seems like a good guy but I can see how he could be annoying in the lead up to a storm. That’s probably how he ended up with the post limit and ban from the mid Atlantic forum.

When you look at it, 22-23 wasn’t that far from being a good winter here. If the western trough/eastern ridge would have been just a little less amplified, the cold air would have certainly oozed into our region since it was available in Canada most of the winter and the storm tracks would have been more SE. I actually had a lot of snow on the ground at the end of that winter because late February brought a couple of big snows back to back. At least with that type of pattern there is hope with cold nearby. Those super/strong Nino patterns like last winter offer no hope since Canada is blow torched. The 01-02 type winters that have the massive Alaskan vortex don’t seem to happen too often thankfully, at least not to that extent.

From here in the Great Lakes over to New England, there are generally two ways to get a very warm winter in a Nina. 1. 22-23 style where you have arctic air coming into Canada but it’s dumping into the western half of the US because the pattern is so amplified. This gives us a lot of warm but dreary days since we are constantly getting warm and moist air masses coming from the southern US. 2. 01-02/11-12 style where there’s a massive vortex around Alaska which doesn’t allow any Arctic air to move into the southern half of Canada therefore keeping the entire US outside of Alaska warm. This is generally a more pleasant winter warmth here as it usually has less moisture/stratus around. I know studies have been done that show an active sun can lead to a lesser chance of high latitude blocking but I’m not totally convinced it was solely to blame for the massive Alaskan vortex in the 01-02 winter. I think it was used as a convenient excuse for blown forecasts that winter.

The seasonal models are useless for 2M temp anomalies. They just default to warm everywhere. There aren’t many guarantees in weather but one thing I can guarantee is that even though the planet is warm, there will be negative anomalies on land somewhere on earth unlike what that map shows.

The 30 day SOI is at -9.22. I think that’s more negative than last year at this time with a strong Nino developing.