roardog

I could see a situation where the PDO continues to rise overall and we end up with a warm neutral winter followed by a Nino the following winter similar to the 2013-2016 timeframe, just not to that extreme. I wouldn't expect a super Nino in 26-27.

Don’t worry. It’ll be warm in Florida. lol

Let’s watch the storm for the middle of next week and see if it trends SE and weaker. There’s always complaints about how a storm that is modeled to produce rain never trends SE. Right now as modeled it would probably get to 60F or higher here with a decent rain. It will probably trend SE and weaker and give me 36F and rain. lol

At least it’s going to be March later this week so you know daily snow melting season is just about here. That’s better than when you lose a good snowpack in like mid January.

That’s crazy. We are still running almost 4 degrees below average for February here after -2.3 degrees in January and only .6 degrees above average for December.

Once you get to March, snow retention becomes almost impossible for any extended period of time for most of this sub forum. So an active pattern with wild temperature swings and contrasts is what March is really about and what to hope for IMO.

Yeah. How many days with snow on the ground doesn't mean anything. We had a lot of days with snow on the ground in a winter like 07-08 but it was because it was a stormy and mild winter. The snow kept melting but more would fall when it cooled down again. I could see that situation playing out a lot in Ohio. I mean, it's never been "normal" for southern Michigan to keep snow on the ground for an entire winter, there's no way it's "normal" for Ohio.

Considering we just had a super Nino last winter, I can’t believe we would have another strong Nino this soon.

That would be nice here because it would be a wet pattern too. We went into winter very dry and could use a wet spring.

This was a much, much colder winter nationally than we’ve seen in awhile. Almost the entire country was below normal for January. Maybe now we can get less of the obnoxious posts about how there will never be a cold winter month again.

I think it was 2017 when there was a day in mid May that had some heavy snow showers around that even managed to whiten the ground for a few minutes.

Early March is generally pretty useless for real warmth even down in your neck of the woods so you’re probably not missing too much. You would think it should at least come with quite a bit of sun.

Maybe we’ll have neutral for a change.

That depends on what you consider consistent spring warmth. That’s kind of relative to where you’re located. Once we start to get consistent highs 40 and above, that’s Spring to me. Any consistent “warm” weather of like 70 and above is Summer to me. lol. Obviously, someone in central Indiana would strongly disagree with that. Anyway, the first week of March looks like we could have well below normal temperatures for this entire sub forum. Of course in March, that could still mean above freezing highs in the central and southern areas of our sub forum.

Medium range is brutal looking if you’re looking for Spring warmth just about anywhere after about day 10. The MJO should be in the colder phases too so it makes sense. I guess enjoy the warmer weather next week although that just looks more closer to normal than anything torchy.

I feel like that would be like having it rain all day and the ground never getting wet and the crops never getting water. lol

I’ve noticed over the years that the low moisture lake effect snow has a problem sticking during the day as you get into late winter and the sun angle gets higher. I remember probably about 25 years ago there was some very heavy lake effect snow squalls in early March. We had bare ground before that and every time it snowed hard, the ground would get covered but as soon as there was a lull, it melted. So we never gained anything. Also, a lot of times the cloud cover is actually quite thin during lake effect snow which doesn’t help either.

If I moved to Florida, I would probably still briefly look at the situation if Michigan had a possibility of something interesting but other than that, I wouldn't care and would go about my day. lol

Don't worry. We're almost to the warm fronts getting stuck at the Michigan border season. Spring is my least favorite season BTW.

At least the WAA snow did end up developing so the early morning HRRR was on crack. Estimating probably 2-2.5 inches of new snow now and still coming down at a decent clip. It looks like it might start winding down soon though.

Dusting

Pretty low confidence over here. The Hrr is showing pretty much nothing here today then we have to rely on the main storm to develop fast enough to throw moisture this far back northwest. Every run is trending weaker and longer to develop like they always do these days. I thought the WAA stuff today would at least get us something but I’m not even sure about that now. lol

There's about a foot exactly here now that the stuff from a couple of days ago settled.

I think I'm even more interested in this than usual because I already have over a foot of snow on the ground. A big hit would make for an epic snowpack.

I probably shouldn't type this but things are looking pretty good over here in eastern Michigan pretty much across the models now. Even the weaker ones are good.