roardog

This is getting off topic but the recent global spike in temps has to be originating from something other than the underlying warming trend. It’s such a sudden spike. I’d bet we will eventually regress back to the mean.

The new run looks like it would have colder air available for the country overall even if the east is warmer.

The 2M anomaly maps on the seasonal models are terrible. The cold anomalies are always way underdone for a cold pattern. For it to show such a large area of the country at normal or below for 2M temps tells me that it must have a darn cold pattern depicted for the country overall. We would need to see the 500 MB heights to see how it really looks.

Alex forecasts WAD every winter. lol

The cool and windy August caused the buoy temps in Lake Huron to fall into the upper 50s due to the wind turning over the water. Now, it’s back up to the mid 60s because of the lack of wind recently. Once we get the wind this weekend, the buoy temps on all of the Great Lakes will probably drop a good bit.

I’m just curious why you think that it will rebound that much from nearly record lows? Is it because you believe the Nino will force the change or are there other things that you’re seeing which will help force the change? It looks like the water off the west coast is cooling again starting to give it more of the classic -PDO look.

We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window.

It is but I think Nino 4 is the most impressive all things considered. The Nino 4 anomaly is almost as high as 3.4.

Nino 4 up to 1.31 today. What was the highest anomaly Nino 4 had in ‘15-‘16?

I can’t disagree with anything you wrote but at the end of the day, the official CPC numbers will be what goes into the record books. So posting the warm Coral Reef Watch to prove your point is irrelevant imo. If you’re posting it just for the sake of discussion, that’s one thing but posting it to prove the Nino is heading to super status when that’s not even the source used doesn’t make any sense.

He keeps showing Coral Reef which is warmer than OISST even though it’s as irrelevant as CDAS for the official numbers.

Who knows, maybe the MJO will do something this time but it feels like we’ve been down this road every month since Spring. It’s always the CFS or BOM that forecasts a strong MJO and it never materializes but twitter and snowman go crazy over it. Like I said, maybe it’ll be different this time.

I don’t have any evidence to back this up but I feel like the temperature in August plays a role. We had a cool August this year and I was seeing more color than usual already at the end of August. I remember in 2017 after the cool August, we had quite a bit of early color showing up until the 90F temperatures in the second half of September seemed to slow it down.

The water along the west coast of the US is really cooling down too, going back to more of the classic -PDO look. Mixed signals everywhere right now.

lol. You keep repeating this as if this is something I said would happen. I made a comment awhile back that said the CFS was forecasting 1.2 to decrease. 1.2 has decreased. The CFS shows it between 1.0-1.5 for the winter. Although the CFS is generally an inferior model, I could see 1.2 continuing to decrease on average over the next few months.

I’ve been waiting 5 months for the big MJO wave that’s always going to develop in a couple of weeks.

Some of these indexes are derived from such a small area that it doesn’t always tell the whole story.

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern?

Must be heading below the neckline now.

Maybe we’ve peaked?

Or it could be that the models are confused by the competing influences and therefore the mean is depicted the way it is. I guess we would have to see individual members to determine that.

The winter of 13-14 was a very cold winter over here in the Midwest. I believe northern Minnesota ended up colder than 76-77. Although this was 10 years ago, I think it shows that if you get the pattern to support it, it will still get very cold. Even last winter, parts of North Dakota were several degrees below normal for the winter. That’s a bitter cold winter for an area that’s already cold on average. The issue in recent years around here and east to where you guys are is really all about the tropical forcing. Is that due to climate change, a natural cycle or a combination of both? It makes you feel like the WPAC warm pool is due to climate change but it also wouldn’t completely surprise me if it reverses in some fashion at some point.

I mean region 4 is something like +1.1 or +1.2. How can this not be considered a basin wide Nino right now?

A little off topic but when I visited Key West years ago the traffic was horrendous. I don’t know if it was because it was the middle of winter so there were more people there or if it’s always like that.

Snowman19’s head will explode if we peak at 2.0 and have an outcome like the models are suggesting. He’ll have to quickly move on to forecasting a super Nina next year. lol