roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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It’ll be interesting to see what tomorrow’s CPC anomaly is.
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Why is Coral Reef Watch only at +1.62 as of yesterday? CRW has never been cooler( and especially by that much) than OISST since I’ve been following it. Something doesn’t add up.
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Fall 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
2004 had a snowstorm here the evening before Thanksgiving. There was even thunder snow with it. I think it was 2007 that also had a snowstorm. -
Isn't it usually an Aleutian trough that extends to the western US flooding the the US with pacific air though? The pattern depicted looks like it would actually drive arctic air into the US west of the Mississippi River.
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They don’t look like a warm Nino December pattern though. It has an Aleutian ridge and deep western US trough. More of a Nina like pattern than anything.
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I’ve never seen him say we aren’t warming. The problem is that you greatly exaggerate the warming as a way to troll as that is obviously your main goal here.
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I can’t speak for Michsnowfreak but I’m pretty sure the only thing he denies is your greatly exaggerated and ridiculous claims that have no support while he backs up everything he says with actual data.
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Humans would probably be wiped out by the time palms were growing in Marquette. lol
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I was born in the 1970s and I can tell you that other than the slight year to year variation, both peak fall colors and spring leaf out has changed very little. There were always a lot of leaves on the ground on Halloween night when I was a kid, the same as it is now. Palm dude probably used to run his snow maker in August in the ‘90s because it used to be cold back then.
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Warm season drought is so dependent on convection that you can have a severe drought 50 miles away from flooding.
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So in this thread, we have Bluewave pointing out how we have/had a La Niña like atmospheric response, meanwhile Snowman19 is posting tweets that say we have an atmospheric response of a well coupled El Niño. Talk about conflicting and completely opposite opinions. lol
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The CFS isn't mine. I don't run it. However, the CFS actually seems to have the right general idea with 1+2, it just cooled it too much, too soon. I think it was down to +2.0 on yesterday's update.
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This forecast isn't looking great right now.
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I thought everyone knew by now that the long range models are terrible with 2M temp anomalies. Canada was “scorching” in 09-10 yet most of the US had a cold winter.
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The map in his tweet says Coral Reef Watch in the bottom right corner. lol
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Even the warm Coral Reef Watch that you like to show only has it at +1.74 as of yesterday. OISST hasn't been updating but it's most likely lower than that.
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1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts.
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I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually?
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I guess if weak averages -7 and strong averages -8, there isn’t a whole lot of value in this measurement when it comes to seasonal forecasting.
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I didn’t say I disagreed with any of it.
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I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol
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A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.
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Calling it massive might be a little bit of exaggeration.
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Isn’t there also a lag when it comes to Enso impacting North America?
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How about we just build snowcover in Canada this year and see how that works out.
