roardog

A lot of the El Niño winters that you guys on the east coast love had this pattern in December. Maybe it’s a little warmer than December 1965 for instance since the planet is warmer overall but the general idea with the warmest anomalies being across the north(especially northern plains) is pretty classic Nino December. Your ‘02/‘09 cold Nino Decembers are pretty rare especially for a Nino that’s technically almost super.

I think some people fail to realize how quickly Canada can cool down this time of year. North America being flooded with pacific air and that big ridge sitting in southern Canada means very mild temperatures in a lot of the country. Look what happens later next week though when the ridge moves into NW Canada. We already have colder air moving south into eastern Canada at that time which then moves south into the eastern half of the US. It might not be anything unusual but it will bring well below freezing 850 temps and below freezing high temperatures to much of the Great Lakes and New England. Some people here act like it won’t snow all winter because it’s ridiculously mild in Edmonton right now.

I’ve grown to not be a big fan of extreme cold because it’s usually otherwise quite boring but palm dude’s posting is making me hope for a January 2019 style cold outbreak. lol

He has been at least once under previous names. lol

Looking at the models, they seem to be honing in on a change to much colder by late next week at least for the Great Lakes area and east. Most of Canada stays very mild but as the big ridge moves more into central and northwestern Canada, it allows colder air to move into eastern Canada and down into our area. It won’t be anything to write home about but 850 temps even a little below normal around here in late December is quite cold and huge change from what we’ve experienced most of this month.

Anyone who can’t see the difference in the pattern across North America on this map compared to what it is now is just trolling or blind. Even average temperatures in early January are cold over here and in New England.

Yeah. It seems the East based Ninos with the more eastern forcing actually have colder Decembers. 1997 had some cold around during December. Although much weaker, 1976 of course was a very cold December that turned “warm” in February. That’s opposite of what you see a lot of times with the more western forcing.

I think the most sleet I’ve ever seen was early April 2003. The previous night was an ice storm while everyone to the south was getting just rain. The next night everyone to the south was getting an ice storm while I was getting buried in sleet. I remember there was at least two or three inches of sleet. It stuck around for a while too even though it was April. ‘83,’03,’07,’16 were all Ninos that had a real wintry period in early April. Will ‘24 join that list?

Maybe my memory is wrong but wasn’t 09-10 the warmest winter on record for Canada?

Yes but the “old” SOI formula doesn’t show that so it’s just more conflicting Enso signals that we’ve become accustomed to with this event.

The 30 day SOI is at -2.78 now which is kind of crazy for a strong Nino.

The scariest part of that chart is that it looks like Marquette didn’t exist in 2014 at Christmas.

Pretty much the entire lower 48 is at or below normal 850 temps from about day 22 until the end. I’m not sure how that’s punting January.

It seems like the models used to mostly under develop storms. This used to show itself in the form of the well known nw trend that seemed prevalent as recently as about 10 years ago. Now, it seems to have gone completely opposite. Is this due to attempts to fix that particular issue with models?

Nothing is guaranteed in weather but a mild December in this region during an El Nino is pretty close to it.

You’ve been typing the same thing for 8 months and although 3.4 has obviously warmed, the atmosphere seems to continue to struggle to act like a strong Nino. I know you’re going to say it’s going start any day now but I remain skeptical.

Maybe with the help of El Nino, we can get some +PNA induced real clippers for a change which we haven't had in 125 years or so(maybe an exaggeration).

If the AAM is going to go positive at the end of the first week of December, how long does that even take to start to change the northern hemisphere pattern if it even does? I thought most posters here wanted a Nino response on the Pacific side. I get that Snowman is trying to get people worried about a warm December because that’s what he does but considering most posters here don’t want a Nina like Pacific, I’m not sure what the problem is. lol

1-3 inches of snow coming from rain possibly mixed with snow becoming all rain after 4AM. I would expect basically just rain from that forecast but somehow you can manage 3 inches of snow out of rain. lol

Palm Guy better move across the lake to your neighborhood.

It’s nice to have it updated. 1+2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time at +2.0. Region 4 is scorching again at +1.49. Region 4 being that warm probably isn’t good news for most on the board if the +IOD continues to weaken as I assume that would start to favor some unfavorable MJO phases.

We should start a betting thread on what date the flip will occur to give up on Nino and start talking about the Super Nina and record breaking SE ridge for next winter. lol

Something is still not adding up here. Coral Reef Watch is also down to +1.5 and falling as of yesterday. Throughout the entire year, Coral Reef Watch has been running warmer than OISST. Now we are supposed to believe it’s suddenly running .30-.35 cooler? That doesn’t make much sense to me.

I think the reason I remember it is because there was lake enhancement here which made it a little more memorable. It wasn’t anything too extreme but I remember a few inches.

It could be 2008 I’m thinking of that had the thanksgiving Day snow. Without looking it up, I can’t remember which year it was.