roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Snowman19’s head will explode if we peak at 2.0 and have an outcome like the models are suggesting. He’ll have to quickly move on to forecasting a super Nina next year. lol
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You keep talking about the -SOI but in reality it’s only -9 on the 30 day and -6 on the 90 day. That’s not exactly an indication of a super Nino. It’s barely even in “Nino” territory. I would say those numbers represent a weak Nino more than anything. This along with the MEI and RONI is showing how our warmed planet is making it more difficult than it already was to forecast long range imo.
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Wasn’t 18-19 a Nino? The two previous winters were Nina I believe.
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1+2 under 3.0 for the first time since June I believe
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Yeah but you wouldn’t expect that type of pattern in an east based Nino in December. If it was due to the strong -PDO, should we take that into consideration this year?
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What caused the unusual December of ‘72 pattern? It didn’t look anything like a Nino let alone a super Nino.
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It’s been pretty much the same story most of the year.
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But yet you use it for MJO forecasts. Hmm.
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That’s it. It’s over. Time for you to start looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Only 6 months till spring.
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Why do you believe the MJO wave is going to strongly propagate into the Pacific?
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I don’t know. If we’re relying on the CFS to tell us a strong MJO is coming later in September, I’d be putting up caution flags. We’ve been down that road and it isn’t a great road to be down. JB kept using the CFS MJO forecast last winter to show the MJO was going to move strongly into 8 and 1. We all know how that turned out. The euro has it going back into the circle after coming out in 4 for awhile.
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Is it going to stay that far east though? The pattern coming up for the first half of September seems to indicate the forcing will be more to the west with the Nina like pattern.
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Maybe it will rotate into those phases but that’s not what the models are forecasting for early in the month. Of course the models could also be wrong since we are talking a couple of weeks out.
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It looks like the MJO might finally make a move. It looks like it might make a move into the maritime continent phases. I know Bluewave has been talking about a Nina like pattern for early September. The MJO moving into those phases would support that. I wouldn’t expect a lot of extreme negative SOI days during this time either if this pattern comes to fruition.
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I’ve read that it’s theorized that major high latitude eruptions can lead to -AO/NAO while the low latitude eruptions often lead to +AO/NAO. Of course we’ve also all heard the theory about low sea ice leading to high latitude blocking and that hasn’t been working out too well in the last decade.
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Look, the only person around here that knows for sure what will happen this winter is snowman19. Just follow his lead and you’re sure to win. It looks like you already are. lol
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I like how there’s so many mixed signals and differing opinions this year. In 2015 at this time you knew a super Nino was coming. As an enthusiast of this stuff, I find this year more interesting.
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So much for those tweets back in May about how the PDO was quickly changing to positive. Is it just me or is twitter full of overreaction with this stuff? I think it was a tweet from DT that was posted in this thread a few months ago proclaiming the PDO was going positive because the water was warming south if Alaska. lol
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OISST took a nose dive in 1+2 on the daily readings recently. That’s strange because CDAS did that last week but then came back up. Now CDAS is warmer than OISST. Also Enso 4 is getting above 1.0 now on OISST. This is definitely a basin wide Nino at this point.
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I’ve been on these boards for 23 years with the same screen name. I’m not thunderbolt. lol
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It’s like last year when twitter was going bonkers about how strong the Nina was going to be last winter. In the end, it peaked at -1.0.
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It is irrelevant though. When all is said and done, the strength of this Nino will be determined by the ERSST tri monthly peak. Coral Reed watch is no more relevant than the cool CDAS.
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It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers.
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No. You’ll be lucky to get one “hot” day there. Maybe Saturday?
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The CFS has actually been cooling some recently. The latest runs of the bias correction is closer to a 1.5 peak now(the blue colored lines).
