roardog

That depends on what you consider consistent spring warmth. That’s kind of relative to where you’re located. Once we start to get consistent highs 40 and above, that’s Spring to me. Any consistent “warm” weather of like 70 and above is Summer to me. lol. Obviously, someone in central Indiana would strongly disagree with that. Anyway, the first week of March looks like we could have well below normal temperatures for this entire sub forum. Of course in March, that could still mean above freezing highs in the central and southern areas of our sub forum.

Medium range is brutal looking if you’re looking for Spring warmth just about anywhere after about day 10. The MJO should be in the colder phases too so it makes sense. I guess enjoy the warmer weather next week although that just looks more closer to normal than anything torchy.

I feel like that would be like having it rain all day and the ground never getting wet and the crops never getting water. lol

I’ve noticed over the years that the low moisture lake effect snow has a problem sticking during the day as you get into late winter and the sun angle gets higher. I remember probably about 25 years ago there was some very heavy lake effect snow squalls in early March. We had bare ground before that and every time it snowed hard, the ground would get covered but as soon as there was a lull, it melted. So we never gained anything. Also, a lot of times the cloud cover is actually quite thin during lake effect snow which doesn’t help either.

If I moved to Florida, I would probably still briefly look at the situation if Michigan had a possibility of something interesting but other than that, I wouldn't care and would go about my day. lol

Don't worry. We're almost to the warm fronts getting stuck at the Michigan border season. Spring is my least favorite season BTW.

At least the WAA snow did end up developing so the early morning HRRR was on crack. Estimating probably 2-2.5 inches of new snow now and still coming down at a decent clip. It looks like it might start winding down soon though.

Dusting

Pretty low confidence over here. The Hrr is showing pretty much nothing here today then we have to rely on the main storm to develop fast enough to throw moisture this far back northwest. Every run is trending weaker and longer to develop like they always do these days. I thought the WAA stuff today would at least get us something but I’m not even sure about that now. lol

There's about a foot exactly here now that the stuff from a couple of days ago settled.

I think I'm even more interested in this than usual because I already have over a foot of snow on the ground. A big hit would make for an epic snowpack.

I probably shouldn't type this but things are looking pretty good over here in eastern Michigan pretty much across the models now. Even the weaker ones are good.

If anything close to the Nam happened, there would be drifts to the tops of houses around here with the amount of snow already on the ground. lol

Have you seen what the models have done with these storms during this time frame the last 10 years including this last one? lol

I believe it was Feb. 2021. We’ve only had about 34 inches for the season so it really shows the staying power the snow pack has had this winter. There’s people talking about how there’s been so much snow this winter when the reality is it’s just been cold enough here to not fully melt it with the exception of what fell at the very beginning of December and the brief torch at the end of December.

About 5 inches here. A little bit of an under performer for a Winter Storm Warning. About 15 inches on the ground now.

It looks like they’re developing the system a little faster again and it’s causing a band of heavier snow to develop from about your area through the thumb and into Ontario.

It’s met spring by then and I feel like the mid Atlantic had a decent winter by Nina standards.

So while all of your friends were seeking out real porn, you were seeking out the rain/snow line.

It’s like in the summer with an MCS. I need to see storms around Green Bay if I’m going to feel confident with getting anything other than some sprinkles. Most of the time though, they’re firing around Milwaukee which is a no go for here with the inevitable dive SE.

Not much change on the 12Z Euro. Maybe a slight tick weaker. Low tracks just east of Port Huron. It does show about a half inch of freezing rain around Detroit though.

On these SW to NE moving lows, we pretty much need the same track. Maybe more toward Toledo would be best here but what’s a few miles in the end.

Yeah, it doesn’t matter what it ingests. It still causes it to take a dump later.

That would the worst. You would get dry slotted so you wouldn’t even get ice storm warning criteria freezing rain. Boring. lol

That’s too warm for me in July.