roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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I like how there’s so many mixed signals and differing opinions this year. In 2015 at this time you knew a super Nino was coming. As an enthusiast of this stuff, I find this year more interesting.
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So much for those tweets back in May about how the PDO was quickly changing to positive. Is it just me or is twitter full of overreaction with this stuff? I think it was a tweet from DT that was posted in this thread a few months ago proclaiming the PDO was going positive because the water was warming south if Alaska. lol
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OISST took a nose dive in 1+2 on the daily readings recently. That’s strange because CDAS did that last week but then came back up. Now CDAS is warmer than OISST. Also Enso 4 is getting above 1.0 now on OISST. This is definitely a basin wide Nino at this point.
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I’ve been on these boards for 23 years with the same screen name. I’m not thunderbolt. lol
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It’s like last year when twitter was going bonkers about how strong the Nina was going to be last winter. In the end, it peaked at -1.0.
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It is irrelevant though. When all is said and done, the strength of this Nino will be determined by the ERSST tri monthly peak. Coral Reed watch is no more relevant than the cool CDAS.
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It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers.
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No. You’ll be lucky to get one “hot” day there. Maybe Saturday?
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The CFS has actually been cooling some recently. The latest runs of the bias correction is closer to a 1.5 peak now(the blue colored lines).
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The Nino strength isn’t going as planned if we now have to use the GFS fantasy canes as a measurement of Nino strength. lol
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The SOI popped back positive today. How is that looking for the next week or so?
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Part of the problem is the very small sample size of super Nino. The other problem is the background warming that has taken place even since ‘15-‘16. Even the winter of ‘15-‘16 had a major cold shot in the NE part of the country. That alone is much different than ‘97-‘98 or ‘82-‘83. I think the warmer world makes it even tougher than it already is for the models to predict which in turn makes it harder for human forecasters because when the models go against your forecast, it makes you second guess it.
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Isn’t that similar to what happened in 1925?
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I’m guessing the very warm Atlantic waters are helping New England in recent years too.
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I was going to say, how did Maine have the hottest July on record? I wasn’t paying that close attention to that area but it couldn’t have been that hot in Maine with the pattern we had in July. Maine must have had record high dewpoints for the month or something.
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The models have just been bad all around. They keep trying to move the warmth out of 1+2 and into 3.4, probably because they have been showing a favorable pattern to warm 3.4 in the mid range all summer that never comes to fruition. I kind of feel like if 3.4 does finally start to take off that 1.2 will then cool because the warmth will move out of that area. The subsurface under 3.4 isn’t that impressive.
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I was going to ask how the Great Lakes could be that far above normal when it hasn’t even been a hot summer but then I looked closely and realized they’re using 1971-2000 as a base.
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Is the strongest WWB since early June really saying much though?
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Over the course of how many years? lol
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Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.
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It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.
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Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.
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You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak.
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It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.
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Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST.
