roardog

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling.

You're absolutely correct and it wouldn't shock me if the models were wrong about the cold in the medium/long range just because as you said they are often wrong. However, if the models were showing a furnace over the US to end November/start December there would be 50 tweets and 10,000 word essays about why the models are correct.

Isn’t the pacific jet always strong to an extent this time of year? Just about all of the posters in here are very knowledgeable with great information. This is one of if not the best thread on this board every year. However, It’s hard not to see who has the “warm bias” as soon as models start to show cold. If there’s a strong Nina there won’t be any cold, the Nina is too weak so there won’t be any cold, the atmosphere is acting like a Nino so there won’t be any cold. lol

If we can keep a nice stout Aleutian ridge to keep the Arctic air coming into North America and the MJO actually does make it into the cold phases, you guys might have a nice window later in December with cold air already close by.

Then it’s useless since there’s a good portion of this country that gets a lot of their snow on either side of meteorological winter.

Yeah. The global SST anomalies are actually the lowest we’ve seen in quite sometime at least as of a couple of days ago when I last looked.

We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO. Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around.

Am I crazy or was this pic from 2018 not 2019?

I think it was Raindance that showed a cold Nino 4 usually has a cold December followed by a flip going into January while a cold 1&2 usually has December as the mildest month.

The ensembles went from a huge vortex over and around Alaska with a trough down the west coast to above normal heights in Alaska and the west coast. A huge change over a day or so.

I know I’ve said this a million times but there continues to be a huge over reaction to this -PDO trough west/ ridge east pattern we’ve been in since the late 2010s. People act like the planet is so warm now that the right pattern can’t even get us a “cold” winter anymore. The western half of this country had a very cold winter just two years ago.

Pretty tight rain gradient with this system. There’s been over an inch here. There’s even standing water in the fields today.

Yeah. The pattern coming up looks like a good recipe for one of those Colorado low bombs, especially once the Aleutian ridging goes up and allows Arctic air to clash with the already established warm air over the eastern half of the country. Plains blizzard and Midwest severe weather outbreak.

The maritime continent phases are the warm phases this time of year. It's pretty much the opposite of that right now.

If those are the metrics you're going for then good luck with December golfing. The grass growing part might be the toughest. lol

We’ve had a lot of frost and a few freezes here too. Even though October was above normal, I think all of the dryness helped with colder nights.

That look is the result of all of the low pressure/below normal heights happening now and for the next couple of weeks in Alaska and western Canada. Pacific air is very mild this time of year for Canada and the northern US. Watch the end of the ensembles today, especially the Euro. There are big changes around Alaska. It doesn't mean it's correct but that's what you want to look for. It may still have some level of trough in the west but if arctic air gets involved, a nice gradient pattern could develop later in November.

I'd be stunned if the northern plains were the center of warmth this winter. If the northern plains is the center of warmth this winter during a Nina, then we're probably all screwed.

Verbatim it has a varying depth of trough west/ridge east pattern but it also has ridging into Alaska for most of the run. So regardless of what the useless 2M temp anomalies show, there would be arctic air in Canada in that situation which could at least make things interesting for northerners like me. It actually has some very cold 850 anomalies in the western half of the US.

It’s been so boring that I’m hoping with a more active pattern that we can get some dense fog. lol

This is a great thread but it’s funny at times. The stronger MJO rotation through 4,5 and 6 in October was talked about as a positive a couple of months ago for the East Coast in December. Now that it’s happened, the talk is how the seasonal models show nothing like the good December pattern those rotations have brought in the past. However, whenever the seasonal models show a good or decent East Coast pattern, it’s always repeated about how unreliable seasonal models are. I guess you guys just can’t win.lol

Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either.

I had nearly a foot of snow in late April 2005. This was after highs in the 80s the week before. This is the equivalent of a mid August sun angle. I don’t think a late Feb sun angle is going to inhibit accumulation in Philadelphia if the snow is coming down at a decent clip.

I wasn’t talking about what someone said years ago. Nzucker hasn’t been alive for a few years now and I don’t think Raindance has posted in this thread in several years either.

I think you might have said this before too but that winter with a less amplified trough west/ridge east would actually be a very interesting winter here and possibly for you too.