roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Don't worry. We're almost to the warm fronts getting stuck at the Michigan border season. Spring is my least favorite season BTW.
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At least the WAA snow did end up developing so the early morning HRRR was on crack. Estimating probably 2-2.5 inches of new snow now and still coming down at a decent clip. It looks like it might start winding down soon though.
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Dusting
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Pretty low confidence over here. The Hrr is showing pretty much nothing here today then we have to rely on the main storm to develop fast enough to throw moisture this far back northwest. Every run is trending weaker and longer to develop like they always do these days. I thought the WAA stuff today would at least get us something but I’m not even sure about that now. lol
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There's about a foot exactly here now that the stuff from a couple of days ago settled.
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I think I'm even more interested in this than usual because I already have over a foot of snow on the ground. A big hit would make for an epic snowpack.
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I probably shouldn't type this but things are looking pretty good over here in eastern Michigan pretty much across the models now. Even the weaker ones are good.
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If anything close to the Nam happened, there would be drifts to the tops of houses around here with the amount of snow already on the ground. lol
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Have you seen what the models have done with these storms during this time frame the last 10 years including this last one? lol
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I believe it was Feb. 2021. We’ve only had about 34 inches for the season so it really shows the staying power the snow pack has had this winter. There’s people talking about how there’s been so much snow this winter when the reality is it’s just been cold enough here to not fully melt it with the exception of what fell at the very beginning of December and the brief torch at the end of December.
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About 5 inches here. A little bit of an under performer for a Winter Storm Warning. About 15 inches on the ground now.
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It looks like they’re developing the system a little faster again and it’s causing a band of heavier snow to develop from about your area through the thumb and into Ontario.
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It’s met spring by then and I feel like the mid Atlantic had a decent winter by Nina standards.
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So while all of your friends were seeking out real porn, you were seeking out the rain/snow line.
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It’s like in the summer with an MCS. I need to see storms around Green Bay if I’m going to feel confident with getting anything other than some sprinkles. Most of the time though, they’re firing around Milwaukee which is a no go for here with the inevitable dive SE.
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Not much change on the 12Z Euro. Maybe a slight tick weaker. Low tracks just east of Port Huron. It does show about a half inch of freezing rain around Detroit though.
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On these SW to NE moving lows, we pretty much need the same track. Maybe more toward Toledo would be best here but what’s a few miles in the end.
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Yeah, it doesn’t matter what it ingests. It still causes it to take a dump later.
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That would the worst. You would get dry slotted so you wouldn’t even get ice storm warning criteria freezing rain. Boring. lol
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That’s too warm for me in July.
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Nam changes Detroit to Port Huron to plain rain as the low goes over/just slightly east of Detroit. Brings the sleet to just south of here for a bit.
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18Z Euro continues to move north. Ice storm for Michsnowfreak. lol
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I guess there’s still a cutoff but it’s a cutoff from snow to some other form of precip instead of snow to nothing.
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Yeah. The rivers have a lot of ice too. It seems ripe for ice jams this year if it warms up too fast with rain.
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At least this one would be the classic moisture laden storm that covers a large area and isn’t reliant on a narrow dynamic band of snow with a razor sharp cut off that can make or break a forecast hours before it starts. I’m tired of those. lol
