roardog

There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino.

I’m not sure I’d trust any ice south of Hudson Bay this winter. lol

I thought last fall I saw someone(maybe Raindance) post a map showing that a strong/super Nino actually has a corridor of above normal precip near here in the winter. That surprised me but then I remembered how ‘15-‘16 actually had some big storms come through this area after December. Of course this year, we saw a very non Nino like pattern in January with that cold stretch with the coldest air being in the northern plains. That along with a positive SOI for the month, brought a more Nina like pattern which could help explain the wetness around here.

Those are just high temperature anomalies.

When the Lions were playing like an unstoppable force in the first half, I was thinking about how playing the Packers might have been a much tougher game. Then the second half happened and I changed my mind. lol

That Falcons second half collapse in the Super Bowl was somehow even worse than the second half collapse of the Lions in the championship game.

Raindance has had a cold and stormy March for most of the country. It’ll be interesting to see if it happens. He’s had a good winter forecast.

How does grass even grow this far north in January? I would think the sun angle alone would prohibit it.

Since it's going to be mild, hopefully we can get the rare sunny and mild winter weather. Then maybe it could at least freeze at night to keep the ridiculous mud down a little. Maybe we can accomplish that for awhile with the dry easterly flow coming up.

I don’t know. This weather might be even less interesting than taxes.

I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state.

No. Those winters were all cold. The warm ones you listed were due to rooftop temperatures. lol

This isn’t the forum for this but lol seriously.

Yes. It’s going to green up in early Feb in Milwaukee.

I think it means you’ll get a lot of 89 degree highs this year. Just kidding.

I guess you better hope for a super Nino in the future instead of La Niña. lol

The 12Z Nam does look slightly east again FWIW which may not be much but a few miles matter for us on the eastern side of the state, especially you guys down there.

Pray for the palms.

I think if Feb were to end up cold and dry, Michsnowfreak would still be happy as there will always be some snow around if it’s cold and any snow cover would stick around.

Hope the weight of the heavy snow doesn’t crush his palms. lol

Yeah. cold staying northwest is La Nina. That was the pattern last winter. lol. So much misinformation everywhere these days.

I'm not sure it's going to quite make the super tri monthly but it won't be too far off. Good job staying with your prediction even when things weren't looking great. Super Nina and extreme -PDO next year?

I swear critical thinking goes out the window when climate changed is involved. It just becomes emotionally or politically driven.

A lot of the El Niño winters that you guys on the east coast love had this pattern in December. Maybe it’s a little warmer than December 1965 for instance since the planet is warmer overall but the general idea with the warmest anomalies being across the north(especially northern plains) is pretty classic Nino December. Your ‘02/‘09 cold Nino Decembers are pretty rare especially for a Nino that’s technically almost super.

I think some people fail to realize how quickly Canada can cool down this time of year. North America being flooded with pacific air and that big ridge sitting in southern Canada means very mild temperatures in a lot of the country. Look what happens later next week though when the ridge moves into NW Canada. We already have colder air moving south into eastern Canada at that time which then moves south into the eastern half of the US. It might not be anything unusual but it will bring well below freezing 850 temps and below freezing high temperatures to much of the Great Lakes and New England. Some people here act like it won’t snow all winter because it’s ridiculously mild in Edmonton right now.