roardog

Paul did a great job last year forecasting the strong Nino even when things looked questionable. Maybe he’s on to something.

I still remember the misery of no power after the July ‘95 derecho because it was so hot.

I guess that was kind of my point. Every year you get some dramatic news story or tweet about how low the sea ice is like it's never happened before when in reality it happens every summer now. Even if for some reason, the sea ice started to recover(I doubt it actually will)it would take decades to fully recover just like it took decades to decrease to where it is now. It would be a very slow process. I don't think it's even possible to have anything but near record low sea ice every summer with so much multi year ice gone.

I think it means 8th lowest for the date not 8th lowest overall since he was comparing it to the mean for each decade on that date.

This isn’t even all that bad in today’s world. If we ended the melt season at 8th lowest, we would be doing pretty good all things considered.

I know I’ve brought up Joe Daleo a lot in this thread but it’s because I’ve read a lot of relevant stuff from him about this topic over the years. Another interesting tidbit he talks about is how we tend to only have weak enso events when the solar cycle is descending. He says it’s usually Nino, sometimes strong around max then weak enso events during the descending period. If we have peaked, maybe weak(ONI) is favored.

Is Canada on fire again? Is that what today's smoke is from.

Yeah. I don’t think there’s much doubt that all the extra moisture around the planet is responsible for the warmer lows. It’s probably also why the Arctic is always well above average in the cold season but not so much during the warm season. If you add just a little moisture to a very cold airmass, it will warm significantly but it doesn’t have the same effect in the summer when it’s not nearly as cold.

There were a couple of hours around here this morning too where there were no obs. Probably just some glitch.

They just took the holiday off. They’ll be back tomorrow.

What exactly qualifies as death ridge around here anyway? Wasn’t that stretch of hot weather across much of the sub in June a death ridge? I mean if someone is expecting Texas level heat all summer anywhere in this sub you’re going to be disappointed. lol Anyone on this board should know better than to believe seasonal forecasting media hype.

The temp anomalies last winter across the US looked strikingly similar to ‘72-‘73. As we know, that winter featured an ONI very close to what this past winter had. It also had a -PDO as we all know. The individual months were different(December ‘72 had some Arctic air around while this past winter we had that in January) but December, January and February totaled up look very similar. So I think maybe we can say it acted like a very strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO.

I hoped they installed.

Yeah. There’s a big difference between a sunny 60 degree day in June and a sunny 60 degree day in November. It’s amazing how much warmer the same temp feels with a high sun angle.

This image from Joe Daleo is a little outdated but it’s pretty neat to see at what point of the solar cycle La Niña or El Niño is favored.

He’s probably still busy sticking a fork in June.

You must be in Dayton. I hear they never get above 89.

Yeah it’s uncomfortably warm outside but the hype about the “heat” this week was something else. I suppose if we would have had full sun the last couple of days then it would have been a bigger deal but even then the 850 temps around 20C are warm but nothing that doesn’t happen on occasion here in the Summer. The Gaylord office didn’t even issue any headlines and the eastern part of their area had highs in the 90s yesterday and today.

It’s really hard to do because even if the air mass stays warm enough, the surface heat often gets interrupted by convection or convective debris. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens this time after midweek.

This is something that Joe Daleo wrote awhile back about solar cycle and hurricanes. The actual radiation changes only 0.1% from solar min to solar max, so some use that to ignore the sun. BUT the ultraviolet part of the spectrum changes 6-8% from min to max and produces high level warming through ozone chemistry in low to mid latitudes (Shindell NASA) where hurricanes develop and threaten. The most active Atlantic Basin hurricane years tend to be low sunspot years. Near the peak of the solar cycle, Hodges and Elsner found chances of a hurricane making landfall is just 25% but near solar min 64%.

Might as well stop running the model at this point. lol

I think it was Raindance that first brought up the topic of how he thought next winter would feature more of a -WPO. Without trying to find that post, I can’t remember his reasoning but I know he’s had some great success with forecasting those indices.

I would think a -WPO would help drive cold air more to the east in Canada. Even if there’s a strong SE ridge, having some very cold air not too far away would help your area and mine. We were missing that in 22-23.

Are models really showing a Modoki Nina? I know the CFSv2 is essentially showing a basin wide Nina with coolest area around region 3.4 with region 4 barely in Nina territory. 1+2 is also cool.