roardog

This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is?

Phoenix had a “cool” June so I wonder if that plays a role somewhat. Does that help delay the moisture from the monsoon a little which in turns allows it to get a bit hotter now in late July? I’m not terribly familiar with the desert SW climate so it’s just something I was thinking about.

At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that.

This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol

I was just going to ask where this talk of a major MJO wave keeps coming from. I’ve seen nothing other than the weeklies which have been less than stellar to say the least.

At least he’s banned from your sub forum. lol

Yeah. We should stick to posting fantasy model runs showing 3.4 peaking at 3C in 5 months instead.

Yeah. So it kind of ties in with the RONI.

Last year the MEI was indicative of a stronger Nina than what the ONI showed. Maybe the MEI is a better indicator than ONI in the current climate.

Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March… I haven’t posted anything even close to that. I’ve posted about how the CFS continues to forecast 1+2 to begin dropping rapidly which seems to defy the current subsurface conditions.

Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.

This is coming from the person who is banned from the mid Atlantic sub forum and can only post 5 times a day. lol

Do you have the link to the TAO map? I can’t find the one I’m looking for. Thanks.

You got me there. I meant to say twitter not facebook. Facebook, twitter, I hate it all. lol

The reality is we now have the knowledge to understand the mechanisms behind El Niño formation. As a few posters have pointed out, there is nothing in the short term that is pointing toward a big jump in the 3.4 anomalies. We’re heading into July in a couple of days. MJO activity is weak at best, the 30 day SOI is around -5 with no big string of negatives in the near future, nothing exciting in the WWB department, a negative PDO, etc. So despite the twitter hype you like to post, the reality is much less exciting. I still wouldn’t be completely surprised to see the tri monthly peak come in under the 1.5 strong threshold. I know the CFS isn’t great but I think it’s a red flag that it continues to gradually get weaker with this event and even has 3.4 cooling in the near term. It’s like watching a modeled snowstorm and suddenly you see a model that starts to gradually show a weakening trend or a gradual shift in the track each run. That’s always a red flag.

Sometimes it’s better to miss it by a long shot. If it just barely misses then you’re usually screwed for getting anything.

How is the soi looking going into early July?

Raindance seems to be leaning toward a cold start to the winter and a torch to end it in the east which would be opposite what you would expect in a strong Nino with the exception of 1972.

As was discussed earlier in the thread, the CFS v2 is showing an almost immediate plunge in the 1.2 anomalies. Looking at the subsurface, you wouldn’t expect that. Even though all models have flaws, there must be some reason it’s forecasting an immediate decrease even with that warm subsurface. These aren’t 1975 primitive models. lol

I’m not sure what the true definition of Modoki El Niño is but JB uses it for any El Niño where 3.4 is warmer than 1+2. If you read what he’s saying, he says he expects 3.4 to be warmer than 1+2 during the winter. I don’t think that’s a true Modoki but he always calls it that. He’s not actually expecting 1+2 to have negative anomalies.

Wouldn’t we want the subsurface to at least be as warm as ‘97 or ‘15 to see the same trajectory?

The CFS V2 has gradually been getting cooler with the peak with it now showing a strong Nino as opposed to a super. It’s interesting that it declines 1.2 quite rapidly very soon. I wonder if we will actually see that occur.

Why do you feel this developing El Niño will be able to when even the Super Nino in ‘15 couldn’t? What’s different this time?

There’s been so much summer warmth and high dewpoints in recent years that I think it’s skewed the perception of what summer can be here. Last summer felt like a somewhat cool summer to me with those stretches of comfortable temps and low dewpoints but the reality is that it wasn’t really cool at all in the end. I think our last real cool summer month was August 2017. Six years is a long time.

While it’s been very dry recently, the changing pattern next week looks much more favorable for rain across our sub. We don’t usually do dry very well these days around here. If anything is agw fueled, it’s the extra moisture we get around here in the summer. It seems like an eternity since dewpoints have been as low as they’ve been recently in the summer.