ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090856
SPC AC 090856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat May 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern
will trend more zonal by early next week, favoring deeper lee
troughing and low-level moisture return across the Plains. The upper
pattern is forecast to remain void of any systems strong and/or
mature enough to scour the low-level moisture out of the Plains or
MS Valley through the end of next week, setting the stages for an
active week as subtle shortwave troughs and their attendant surface
lows/front interact with the moist low levels.
On each day the previous day's convective evolution will have a
large influence on severe potential, leading to generally low
predictability. The only exception is D5/Wednesday, which looks to
be the first day where the favorable low-level moisture is far
enough north of interact with a subtle shortwave ejecting into the
central Plains. Supercell wind profiles and steep lapse rates will
be in place to support severe potential with any storms that develop
along the dryline. Severe potential exists on D6/Thursday,
particularly from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley, but
limited predictability and questions regarding the northeastward
extent of the moisture return preclude outlooking any areas yet.
Model solutions begin to diverge more after D6/Thursday, limiting
forecast confidence. However, with favorable low-level moisture
expected to remain in place across the Plains, some severe threat
will persist into the weekend.
..Mosier.. 05/09/2020