cheese007

2500 J/kg CAPE. Incredible EDIT: roughly 11.4 million people in the sig tor hatched area on top of that. Could be one hell of a day for the southeast

Whelp redemption ark completed I guess lol

100% on this. I remember the Dallas tornado of 2019 quite vividly. We were in a slight contour, 5% tor risk, non-sign (albeit just barely outside the higher risk zones) and still had an EF3 plow through the northern suburbs just a few miles south of where I live. Its a reminder that, while this day could underperform (and that's a fairly reasonable bet given all that needs to go "right"), it could very well overperform as well!

If I'm right it'll be a hell of a redemption ark given my utter failure with last month's snowstorm

D1 enhanced added up in northwest OK extending into parts of KS and TX

D1 enhanced added up in northwest OK extending into parts of KS and TX

D2 mod risk issued. Looking like a big day tomorrow

1400 Tornadoes, 2 high risk, first one March 17th

Some folks yesterday got hit by one of the satellites of the Happy tornado

30% contour for D4. Haven't seen that in a bit

Yeah they're lucky that the circulation seemed weak when it got close to them

If y'all wanna see someone utterly fail at driving down a dirt road, Sequoyah's stream is the place to be

Image description: lowering cloud base backlit by the sun on a stream from Sequoyah Quinton in Silverton TX

*beautiful* scene on Sequoyah's stream rn

Rain wrapped too. Bad situation all around

That Tulia storm looks ready to go

Debris sig on the Happy storm

Bob Pack has a lowering out by Tulia

Tony Laubach seems to have a visual on it

Got a wedge on it now seemingly

Tornado on Brad's stream! EDIT: Reed seems to have something as well

Lowering on Brad Arnold's stream

First tor warning southeast of Dalhart

Mesoscale Discussion 0165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Areas affected...eastern portions of the TX Panhandle and TX South Plains into far western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131952Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase through mid/late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the discussion area around 22z. Supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected and a watch will be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A thick cirrus shield oriented southwest to northeast across the TX South Plains/Panhandle vicinity has limited stronger surface heating somewhat this afternoon. Nevertheless, low level moisture has continued to increase across the region on strong southeasterly low level flow. Steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 C/km are already in place over the region and are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VWP data continues to show favorable shear for supercell development. While low level hodographs remain somewhat small, elongated profiles above 2-3 km indicate favorable conditions for very large hail amid steep lapse rates, and hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears likely with the strongest cells. Fast-moving cells and strong low level winds also will support damaging wind gusts. A narrow corridor has developed from roughly Floyd County TX to Wheeler County TX where thinner cirrus has allowed for stronger heating. Surface temperatures are around 5-10 degrees warmer in this corridor per West TX Mesonet data compared to points to the west. Weaker inhibition is noted in 19z Mesoanalysis data, along with slightly stronger low level lapse rates. This corridor may become more favorable for longer-tracked supercells and strong tornadoes later this afternoon. Nevertheless, strong low level shear and a moist, unstable environment could support tornadogenesis in any semi-discrete cells through early evening. ..Leitman/Grams.. 03/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34859971 34459976 34159994 33890030 33800065 33730113 33810138 33920148 34050154 34820165 35550162 35910155 35970146 36080123 36150074 36150041 36030005 35879989 35509973 34859971

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0019.html First TOR watch of the day, 50/30 probs