cheese007

Hey now we could get some virga! The sky's the limit!

Excited to see what failure mode we get today. TV mets are gung-ho on this which makes me even more pessimistic lol

HRRR is almost always better accuracy-wise short term yes?

Looks like DFW is about to strike out yet again. At this point anyone should be extremely skeptical of any snowfall forecast here until the flakes start falling. Hilarious that lucy has yanked the proverbial football out from under everyone when there has been *so much precedent* for a low-side forecast busts since 2015

DFW Snow Shield (TM). Never. Fails.

FWD thinks the Dallas Snow Shield (TM) remains intact for this event. This lack of snowfall is getting increasingly absurd as time goes on

Given the past 6 years I'll believe it when I see it

FWD thinks it more likely than not is exclusively a south of I-20 event: But don`t buy those snowman kits just yet. The main uncertainty is the track of the upper level low which will dictate the areas that get snow and the ones that either are cloudy or rainy. As of now there`s 2 general scenarios, both highlighted in the ensemble data: a weaker upper low and a more northern track, and a stronger low with a more southern track. The southern track seems to be the more likely solution based on cluster analysis of the ensemble members and the primary deterministic runs of the global models. This track means that snow potential tapers off dramatically north of I-20 with Central Texas seeing the higher totals. The weaker northern solutions means more rain than snow across Central Texas, with the higher snow totals along the I-20 corridor. But it`s also worth nothing that a deeper and more southerly track may also allow the upper low to swing northeast through East Texas and bring snow northward Sunday evening. All said, it`s too early to pick a forecast track solution and we will stick close to the NBM blend. This will advertise the highest PoPs in the Central Texas Sunday, tapering down to slight chance north of I-20. For precipitation type, since the surface layer may need to be cooled by precipitation, it may start out as rain early Sunday but should transition to snow. Given the cold temps aloft, any areas that do see sufficient precipitation should cool to near freezing and accumulations would occur. We do not expect temps to get much below freezing which will help keep roads more slushy than icy at least through Sunday night. It`s too early to talk about accumulation totals, but needless to say accumulations somewhere in our CWA look like a good bet. Again, the worded forecast will stay generic with precipitation type being advertised as a rain and snow mix. It's like someone built a snow shield over DFW or something

Yesterday was apparently the wettest NYE on record for DFW. So that's something at least

Just hope this doesn't end up as our last shot at winter weather!

38 and its raining cats and dogs here in Irving. Got a runble of thunder too

Looking like good potential for severe weather from southeast TX into southwestern MS per the title.

Ending the year with 33 and raining seems most appropriate. Awful weather for a awful year

From the latest AFD: Forecast soundings reveal a warm nose near 850mb and surface temperatures near or just above freezing across areas further east, including the DFW Metroplex, which would likely result in liquid rain or a period of light freezing rain prior to daybreak on Thursday. Like clockwork lol. Accumulations have been removed from the hourly too. Tired of this happening with nearly every system season after season after season

Given how consistent 40 degrees and rain has been the past five years, your gut is probably correct

I'll believe any winter weather when I see it. Pretty rare setups haven't "busted" last-minute in recent years

Tornado Warning LAC079-240400- /O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0088.201224T0324Z-201224T0400Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 924 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana... * Until 1000 PM CST. * At 924 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Glenmora, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Lecompte around 945 PM CST. Cheneyville around 950 PM CST. Poland and Echo around 955 PM CST. Ruby around 1000 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Woodworth, Forest Hill and Mcnary. This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 58 and 75. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3127 9223 3115 9223 3114 9222 3112 9223 3102 9222 3098 9236 3100 9239 3099 9241 3097 9242 3096 9245 3092 9263 3109 9270 3129 9224 TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 248DEG 33KT 3104 9258 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 13

Tornado watch out for Beaumont, TX area into Mississippi

DFW dry slot is frustrating as per usual

That one is probably more accurate as there's a hole where Dallas gets nothing lol

Cold rain coming Sunday. Bleh

Hell of a tornado for such a quick spinup

Looking at Google maps traffic data and the damage pics seems like it was a brief but powerful tornado.

TDS in Arlington!