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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Oh, I'm with you all the way. I'm curious how they reached the decision.
  2. high risk
    Those TOR and WIND probs were definitely set too high. But I agree with you that we shouldn't completely swing the pendulum all the way to the other side and go total 'meh' - there is still some SVR threat, especially for those along and east of I-95.
  3. high risk
    CAMs are all over the place for this afternoon, and none of them really have a good handle on this lead convection. The HRRR is now at least starting to initialize the ongoing storms, and it still ramps up a line right along the I-95 corridor during the mid-late afternoon hours. But the ongoing storms are stronger and in greater coverage than the HRRR has, so I'm still not convinced that it will capture the evolution. I'm actually rooting for SVR, given that Howard County is releasing schools early. I would hate for their decision to be ridiculed, leading them to not dismiss early on a future day where it was really needed.
  4. high risk
    If you're looking for significant supercell potential, prepare to be very disappointed. I know that SPC has us in the 5 TOR, but I've always thought of tomorrow as a wind day. There is deep layer shear to support SVR, but the low-level shear to ramp up the TOR potential is pretty marginal at best. That's especially true if it ends up as an early show. The NAM Nest has gone back to a single beefy squall line later in the day, but other CAMs seem to prefer an earlier, broken line. Among those, there is disagreement as to whether a second line will roll through later in the day; a second line might have better wind fields to work with. I still line the overall wind threat tomorrow, although unless the 00Z NAM Nest idea is right, it's probably more of a SLGT than an ENH.
  5. high risk
    Agreed. NAM Nest for Monday afternoon looks impressive, both in terms of forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity.
  6. high risk
    Sorry, @yoda. Didn't see your question earlier, but this explanation is correct. You typically get stronger flow around the edges of a ridge, and there is a typically a "quality" air mass in place beneath. Add a few disturbances moving through that faster flow, and you're in business.
  7. high risk
    I keep waiting for a "real" severe threat to develop here, and by that I mean something with a legitimate amount of instability, and not those cool season low CAPE - high shear events. Climo generally says that we have to wait until mid May or so, and right on schedule, it looks like Monday may have some modest potential.
  8. high risk
    I think I should have said "this afternoon and evening". Radar shows very much a rapidly increasingly convective nature to the precipitation across our area.
  9. high risk
    Seems like there is a good chance of embedded thunder during the evening hours. While it's a bit uncertain how far north the warm front will get, I agree with SPC that any cells in the warm sector or especially ones that interact with the boundary have potential to spin. For DC and points north (and probably even a bit further south than that, as I have doubts how far north the warm front will make it before retreating), any storms will be elevated, eliminating the severe potential but allowing for some hopefully nice lightning and thunder.
  10. high risk
    Two days of wet and upper 40s during a May weekend is as ugly as it gets.
  11. high risk
    I think so. NAM Nest has been adamant that we'll stay in the mid to upper 50s, at least on the northeast side of town. HRRR seems to be coming around to the same idea.
  12. high risk
    I can confirm that there were pingers here a few miles south of you this morning.
  13. high risk
    And now a few small hailstones.
  14. high risk
    Thunder in Howard County.
  15. high risk
    good call!
  16. high risk
    Agreed. Ultimately, I think it's going to come down to the surface dew points. The NAM Nest and ARW2 keep dew points around 60 ahead of the line, and both have impressive reflectivity signatures. Other CAMs (including the HRRR) mix out the low-level moisture and end up with mid 50s dew points, and their simulated radars look very meh.
  17. high risk
    Really not sure what to make of the SVR chances this afternoon. Pretty much every CAM brings some sort of line or broken line through the area (with perhaps a few stronger cells immediately behind), but there is no agreement on intensity. Overall, based on simulated reflectivity, it's tough to expect more than a few SVR reports, but if we can maximize surface heating without mixing out the low-level moisture, perhaps we can have a modestly more interesting event.
  18. high risk
    Wednesday has some sneaky supercell potential for the northwest areas, perhaps HGR and points west and north of there. CAMs suggest that the greatest threat for a few cells is in PA, but there is a signal for northwest and western MD The wind profiles might not support TORs, but they would support storm rotation. NAM Nest and hi-res FV3 both show a narrow line ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. There are questions about the amount of instability, and some of the wind profiles look “weird”, but this could eventually end up as a SLGT day.
  19. high risk
    some lightning in the cell by Bowie
  20. high risk
    Thinking that there is some potential for lightning and small hail this evening and again Saturday afternoon. Good forcing during both periods with a little bit of instability and very low freezing levels - some healthy reflectivity signatures in the CAMs.
  21. high risk
    Yeah, the only strike in the entire area was in Howard County. #winning
  22. high risk
    It's also from a single deterministic GFS run that is inconsistent with its previous cycles and doesn't match what all of the ensembles are showing.
  23. high risk
    consistently with the previous posts, there seems to be some very, very good agreement across the various models (and their ensembles) for next week being very warm
  24. high risk
    Having the crapvection blossom into more significant storms is probably our best route to SVR east of the Potomac. This is what the HRRR and NAM Nest are showing. My concern all along has been that if we have to wait for the main line after dark, instability will be waning then.
  25. high risk
    Curious to watch the evolution over the next few hours. The main line to the west is going to have a tough time making progress towards the DC-Baltimore metro area until much later, but the 18Z HRRR and NAM Nest now agree on cells breaking out just southwest of DC in an hour or two and then racing northeast into central and northern MD.
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