kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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We definitely don't need "substantial" changes to get 12+ from the city on west. The suburbs are another story
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That's a pretty significant jump west by the GFS. Not Euro like, but trending in the right direction since the 18z whiff yesterday.
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GFS is doing the windshield wiper thing. Went well east at 18z then back west at 00z. Still way too early to make any determination. It would be nice to see the CMC somewhat hold serve since it sniffed out this thing first.
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But could also be detrimental for the coast with the phase causing a closer track to the coast. That's what makes this such a thread the needle event, so much can go wrong in either direction.
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Maybe for a 24+ inch storm but you could get a 12-18 inch storm even with a fast mover, it's happened before.
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You can't really take the surface maps too seriously at this point and the east/west windshield wiper effect. What we do know is that there looks to be a really big storm somewhere. All the other stuff will be ironed out over the next few days. It does seem very thread the needle though. A lot will have to line up perfectly to get big snows here so don't get your hopes up too high.
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Man, this storm has massive potential as well as massive heartbreak potential but that's what makes tracking fun, eh? If this comes to fruition, when was the last time the CMC led the way when it was on its own? I honestly can't remember.
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Like 95% of the population does.
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We had a 6-8 inch storm locally just a few weeks ago which is almost a third of NYC's annual snowfall average and is close to the January average. Some perspective is indeed for what a NYC winter should look like.
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Looks like a mid March storm. White rain. The real story will be when the ponding freezes up later, it's going to be slippery out there this evening.
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It's rare that a model, completely on its own like the Euro in this instance, scores a win. If you're right about the Ukie trending the wrong way, that's a sign that the Euro will shift east also.
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There's no science behind this but I always feel better about storms that are modelled too far east to trend west than those that are forecasted as inland runners to trend east. It's why I never bought into the last storm even 5 or so days out.
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Just took the dog out, little guy was buried gleefully (well, not so gleefully, I was the gleeful one ) in about 6.5" here in Whitestone and coming down moderately.
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And people at work, and friends at home, asking me where's the snow? I said, what snow? I don't watch the news much anymore so I assume that the news was hyping it up because everybody I know seems to think we were supposed to get a snowstorm. I still don't know why anybody watches TV meterologists anymore.
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Hailing in Whitestone, just got home in time to beat it. Don't see that too often
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It was pouring leaves last night with the wind howling. The wind felt great with the mild temperatures. It's going to feel cold again when the temps drop this weekend to "seasonal" levels after a warm week.
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Still haven't gone to long sleeves yet. Walked outside for lunch yesterday with no jacket or pullover which is nice for the second week of November but odd at the same time. In any event, the weather this week has been glorious. Today seems to be another good one.
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I was just about to say this. For me (and snowpack retention snobs like you said), '13-'14 and '14-'15 were more memorable than, say, '05-'06 and '15-'16 which had a blockbuster storm each but was pretty much a nothing burger otherwise which was basically a 2 day winter as opposed to the 5-6 week winters of the previously mentioned years with no really memorable individual storms but an unforgettable extended winter with long lasting snowpack and consistent pack refresher moderate snowstorms.
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And when snowman19 posts
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Most winters have abbreviated snowy periods, even the snowier winters of the last two decades. Rarely do we see a wall to wall winter, '14-'15 was the closest that I can recall. With that said, last winter wasn't all that memorable for me either outside of the 12"+ early February storm. I almost forgot that most of us topped 40". Maybe all the pandemic craziness played a part in that.
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Apples and Oranges. Sandy was a long duration devastating high wind and surge event while this was a shorter duration devastating freshwater flooding event. It's essentially a pick your poison situation but hard to compare the two because the events were very different in terms of the type of impact. I think this was scarier because it happened so suddenly making it hard to prepare especially for people on the road (and why they were driving in this is beyond me).
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Holy. That's literally walking distance from my place. That portion of the Cross Island floods a lot (the Bell Blvd. exit in particular) but never anything like that. Those cars going under is absolutely frightening, I hope those people made it out ok.
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All of a sudden, constant lightning flashes here in Whitestone with not much thunder. Rarely see that.
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I've never seen a downpour like this last for 2+ hours until tonight. I just spent about 30 minutes looking for relatively dry spots trying to get my dog to pee just once to no avail. Thanks Ida.
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Torrential wind driven rain that's been persistent for about 30 minutes now. Wild stuff out there.
