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kat5hurricane

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Everything posted by kat5hurricane

  1. kat5hurricane
    Light snow started in Midtown Manhattan
  2. kat5hurricane
    So it will be called New Nam City after the switch?
  3. kat5hurricane
    nevermind
  4. kat5hurricane
    VD 2007 is a prime example. Inches of sleet with temps in the teens.
  5. kat5hurricane
    This needs to be repeated a million times for those who keep talking about surface temperatures and the track of the surface low. The mid levels are what will keep this from being a major snow event around the city, or not if the warm tongue is being overestimated which I doubt based on experience. Sleet almost always seems to advance faster than modelled around these parts.
  6. kat5hurricane
    I think 4-8 is a reasonable call for the NYC area from south to north, been sticking with this call for a few days. The low track is less than ideal and those warm layers almost always overperform in these marginal situations, I expect a lot of sleet. These 12-18 inch forecasts is ridiculously bold IMO.
  7. kat5hurricane
    I don't see any major changes with the 0z suite but what's interesting to me is that dry slot showing up in west central Jersey and a strip of heavier snow bleeding down from the Hudson Valley to the northern part of the city. I don't ever recall seeing a snowmap with that look before so close to an event, on multiple models. Overall, still looks like a 4-8 inch sort of deal in the immediate metro.
  8. kat5hurricane
    Yep, we should be thrilled with that. I think that's the ceiling for us close to the city, 4-8 is probably a more realistic range.
  9. kat5hurricane
    I think it's pretty much a given that the heaviest snow will be well north of the city. At this point, it's about salvaging a 6-10 inch type event with the initial slug of precip..
  10. kat5hurricane
    Something off with that run. It moved off the Delmarva at hour 33 then back west into the Delmarva at 35? Uh... ok then. The 18z runs always seem to be kind of wonky. 0z will be more telling.
  11. kat5hurricane
    Can some people let the run finish instead of saying stuff like "Game Over" before it plays out? The Euro seems fine to me based on first look.
  12. kat5hurricane
    Same here. I had the towel in hand after last night's runs and have officially tossed it now at least for the big snows. It looks like a 3-6 thump is likely for the immediate metro depending on where you're located, probably closer to 6 for you.
  13. kat5hurricane
    Meh, it's not even officially winter yet so I wouldn't call this crushing but, yes, it sucks after tracking this for 5 days and losing sleep in the process waiting for the Euro to make or break our night.
  14. kat5hurricane
    Perhaps enough laughs to take the weenies off the ledge of the bridge.... until the Ukie brings them right back.
  15. kat5hurricane
    There's a joke in there somewhere. @Rjay???
  16. kat5hurricane
    Sick minds think alike. That was my initial thought too haha
  17. kat5hurricane
    What is that based on? I know every storm is different but once the north trend starts on all models within a couple of days of the event, I don't ever recall those trends reversing.
  18. kat5hurricane
    The GFS trending north eventually was as predictable as Anthony hoping for a blizzard.
  19. kat5hurricane
    For now but this seems like the beginning of a trend towards the other guidance so I doubt it's done trending north. I'd expect the Ukie and Euro to follow suit. The trends are undeniable.
  20. kat5hurricane
    That's fair and I agree wholeheartedly with the whining which I kind of did in my last post.
  21. kat5hurricane
    With all due respect, a lot of folks in this forum do live around the NYC area so what should we talk about?
  22. kat5hurricane
    100%. Such is life on the coast where EVERYTHING has to align perfectly to get the big snows. Just another example of how utterly spoiled we were in the 2000s and even first half of the 2010s when 12+ inch storms were almost an annual occurrence, even several times a year. As disappointing as it is considering the way it looked a few days ago, 4-8 inches is a really good storm for us. Who knows, it might be the biggest storm of the year for us coasties.
  23. kat5hurricane
    It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city then dryslot or switch to sleet or drizzle. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.
  24. kat5hurricane
    The trends are obvious. This is an interior snowstorm and likely one of those 4-8 inch front end thump to snizzle type deals at the coast, seen it happen many times. GFS will correct towards the other models, as usual.
  25. kat5hurricane
    I think the GFS is out to lunch. The Nam, rgem, CMC and ukie all seem to be focusing on moving the heaviest snow further north. Looking more and more like warmer air and/or a dry slot cutting down on the totals at the coast after a good initial thump. 12-18 seems like a bit of a pipedream for the city now if trends continue. Watch the Euro come up with a different solution now to throw it all out of whack just when it looks like a consensus starting to form.
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