kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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This is the lull between the models being pretty much locked in and the beginning of the event. Not much to do at this point but wait and watch the satellite/radar.
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It seems pretty clustered to me. The few renegade eastern ones are skewing the mean.
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Just took a look at the rgem and I don't see much of a difference at all. The low ticked slightly east but it was also stronger. The precip shield looked largely unchanged. Model noise as mentioned above.
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I wouldn't worry unless other models follow the same look (would like to see that double barrel low disappear) but really, we're getting down to nowcast time anyway.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
kat5hurricane replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Steady light snow that's wet on the main roads yet, somehow, my commute into work took twice as long as it usually does. -
It's just one run though and considering the wild swings of this model, it shouldn't be taken seriously even the day of the event. In other words, don't get too high or too low on any one run, look at the overall trends. I saw the 6z nam and thought it looked nice but also knew that it was just one of those "nam" things.
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Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that.
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Predictable. The Nam always has one insane run then corrects towards the other guidance. I expect the same from the GFS in the other direction as we near consensus. It almost always happens leading up to these big storms.
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It's why PDII was my favourite event. Around 24 hours of light to moderate then about 12-15 hours of moderate to heavy. Long duration storms are always the best.
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I've seen this play out many times in my experience on the eve of big storms. The Nam has that one bonkers run that you cut the totals in half to get a true depiction and will correct itself by 12z while the rgem and GFS are too conservative and will usually correct itself upwards by 12z. As usual, blend them all and I think a good forecast is 4-8+ well north and west, 8-12+ for NYC and immediate burbs, 12-18+ for Nassau, 18+ for Suffolk.
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I want to extend my condolences as well @Joe4alb I lost my father a little over 10 years ago when he was only 57 so I can relate. Hopefully the snowstorm gives you some joy.
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And the Forkfather has spoken again. Lets go west gents.
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Oh I know, I was being somewhat facetious and I know how mentioning a storm name triggers everybody
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Better than Juno?
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Holy. This is oh so close to getting just about everybody on this forum completely in the game and it's still trending.
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It "Shirley" is
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Patiently waiting for the 0z runs...
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Lots of westward lean on the GEFS. We really needed to see a favourable shift with the GFS and we got it even if it's not quite there yet.
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Well, some definite improvements on this GFS run in terms of the precip being more robust on the western flank but the low takes a sizeable jump northeast from 48-54 hours unlike the other models which are slower east of L.I. I don't know if that was low movement or if it chased the convection.
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We need a pretty significant move west by the GFS to line up with the Nam and Rgem solutions. If not, I don't know what to think.
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This is getting a very "Juno" feel to it with a sharper cutoff north and west.
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Lots of misses/scrapers on this set even for Eastern New England.
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So on the EPS (for the immediate NYC area), I see 9 scrapers, 13 hits and 3 whiffs. Jeez, thanks for clearing that up for us Euro.
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Boston gets crushed on this run. Again, just not quite enough for the major snows west of Suffolk but it's annoyingly close to something bigger for a lot of us near the coast.
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It might be close but there's a consensus forming that this is a storm for far eastern sections, the major snows I mean. Nothing is locked in yet but the models do seem to be honing in on a solution and time is running out, the GFS and Euro are closer than they've ever been the last few runs. A lot of the others are ticking east as well.
