kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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The dry slot and warm tongue on becoming more prominent on some of the short range models with the jackpot moving further north. Still a good thump of snow but the trends are a little concerning. The Euro will be telling. Need it to hold serve. Any further shifts north and the GFS is starting to look like an outlier.
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Not good trends for those of us near the coast tonight outside of the GFS, good for the LHV and northeast PA. If the Euro shifts north tonight, could be trouble.
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Models aren't converging on anything. The Nam and rgem are drastically different than the GFS and the Euro somewhere in between.
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The GFS was always going to correct north, this is windshield wiper stuff. The 18z models are always wonky anyway, the 0z suite will be more telling.
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March 2018 was a big fat tease in my neck of the woods. Historic storms all over the place but here, north, west, east, south. January 2016 was the last 12+ incher here in Whitestone and for most of us in the immediate NYC area.
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I'd be shocked if the GFS didn't correct north somewhat. We'll see...
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Yeah, I suppose it has been pretty consistent with the suppressed look but it's a big outlier and I've seen many times when the gfs has been suppressed only to correct north towards the other models as the event nears. When was the last time the gfs scored a coup for a major event when it was the lone outlier?
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The GFS almost always plays catch up in big events like this and has at least one run that's an outlier closer to the event. I wouldn't put much stock into it and will bet anything that it will bump north eventually.
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Hoo Boy. That rgem should wake up some weenies.
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I've always said that suppression is the biggest concern, that confluence means business. Even in the city, I'd be a bit concerned about a whiff south. Folks up north should definitely be concerned.
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Jeez, that Ukie is a Nukee.
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Great run for the city but that confluence is no joke, you don't want this to get suppressed too much. It's a pretty sharp cut off north of the city on this run.
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I'll run outside weenie out if this run verifies.
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Now THAT was a Mother of God run, that's a Mother and Father of God run.
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I would normally temper expectations this far out but usually when there's such a strong model consensus within 5 days and at least some room for error to work with, it's a strong indication that this should be at least a significant snow event for a good portion of the area. There's still lots that can go wrong, but the excitement is starting to build.
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
kat5hurricane replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Just stepped outside to the delight of light snow. I'm going to savour every flake in what could be a relatively flakeless season. -
I'd say that's pretty accurate. Isaias was just a different beast.
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Isaias winds were definitely stronger. Isaias was the biggest windstorm since Sandy, it'll be tough to top that one.
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And just like that, the rain is about over. That was a wild, wild 2 minutes of blinding rain.
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Woah did I get home just in time. This rain is absolutely insane, it's a white out. I'm in awe and we've had a lot of extreme weather in the last 20 years to be in awe over.
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Crazy wind in Whitestone, must be close to 60 mph. I just came back from the gas station on the way home and there was a big garbage can being blown around the station flew right past my car, never seen that before.
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Eye will.
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The duration of Sandy is what made it so historic. Consistent 50+ mph wind gusts for 24+ hours. The peak wind gusts were incredible but the winds were pounding the area for what seemed like forever. No storm in my lifetime has come close to matching Sandy from a wind standpoint. The sheer size of the storm was mindblowing.
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Yeah, you were right. I was actually a little scared for my dog with the branches blowing around.
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Just took a stroll through the neighborhood and was shocked by how many tree branches are down. I haven't seen this many branches littering the street since Sandy, nothing even close really.
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