kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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Wow, what a reversal of what happened this afternoon. We really need the GFS to take some more sizeable shifts west to give this some validity and the Ukie needs to get its ass away from Bermuda.
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Oh I agree, big improvements there which is all we can really ask for even if it's just the Nam. I was mostly just poking fun at all the BOOM comments.
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All that buildup with the "we're about to get Nam'd" etc. then....thud. Not like it matters anyway because...Nam.
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I know some people are denying it, even pros, but the trends are pretty clear starting with last night's runs. It doesn't mean threat over but an east trend is evident. You can't say "It's just the Nam". Every model is trending more progressive.
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Yes but there were definitely some trends towards the GFS and all the other models to be honest with leaving some of the energy behind. Still some time for change but the possibility of a big snow event for the city on west is decreasing.
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The low did jump east, hence the comments about the low jumping east so not sure the condescension is really needed. The trends are not our friend.
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The Ukie ran already? Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this.
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The 6z Euro did not move east. The EPS did a bit though. Agreed in general though. Not good trends overall outside of the Nam.
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Not favoring any model over the other but what could lend a little more credence to the Euro is that it's been pretty steadfast with its solution over the last 3 days now? while the GFS has been jumping back and forth. The Ukie showing a whiff last night was concerning, we need that to trend significantly west today.
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Then it gets tugged (captured?) back northwest for a time at 78 then northeast again at 84. Haven't looked at the upper levels but the whole run was weird, one big zig zag. Also weird that at 72, the low was well east of the convection.
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The GFS jumped way east at 72 hours but it looks wonky because the low jumped straight east from 60 to 66 hours. Don't know what to make of that.
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The low was virtually in the same position on the rgem with maybe a slight tick east, it's just that the precip was more expansive on the 6z. Just like with the Nam, take with a grain of salt.
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It went east last night. Not by much but it stopped the west trend it was making the previous 2 days. Could be just model noise, we'll see in about an hour. Edit: I didn't see that it ticked back west at 6z. My apologies
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Uh yeah, I think I'll take that Nam run, nice trend towards the Euro. Just the Nam but a damn good start to the 12z suite. Really need to get that stubborn GFS on board, it went the wrong way last night.
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Sheesh, the Euro is going all in. It's pretty much on its own sending the real big totals NYC and west so unless the other models trend towards it today (they went the wrong way last night), I tend to think that it's out to lunch based on its performance as of late. It's been consistent though, I'll say that much.
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It did speed up a bit and was a bit weaker but yeah, it's mainly model noise. I'm more referencing the other models that did not trend towards the Euro and in fact, the GFS went the other way and the Ukie is a complete whiff. I would liked to have seen a little more consensus forming but there's even more of a split after tonight.
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Not great trends tonight to be honest. Lets see what tomorrow brings.
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How does it compare to the last run?
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Well, obviously that's the risk but it's not "all she wrote" because of one GFS run that barely budged 3 days before the event. However, if the Euro takes a noticeable shift east tonight, it's trouble.
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Jesus, can you people stop with posts like this? It adds nothing to the discussion. The GFS has been doing the windshield wiper thing the last few days. Not saying it's wrong but it hasn't been that consistent either. The final solution is far from locked in at this point.
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The Nam went from tuck to blow.
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Man, the nam is tucked and looks ready to blow up post 84 hour frame.
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Yes but the GFS has been trending west ever since 18z yesterday. It could be a windshield wiper effect situation where it goes east again but it's not like the GFS has been consistent with its solution. In any event, conservative is definitely the way to go until a consensus forms.
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You're not wrong but it should be noted how consistent the Euro has been the last few days as well as how tightly clustered the ensembles are. Very far from a locked in position especially with the variance of the other models but it's a good spot to be in right now which, of course, can change quickly.
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We definitely don't need "substantial" changes to get 12+ from the city on west. The suburbs are another story
