kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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March 2018 was a big fat tease in my neck of the woods. Historic storms all over the place but here, north, west, east, south. January 2016 was the last 12+ incher here in Whitestone and for most of us in the immediate NYC area.
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I'd be shocked if the GFS didn't correct north somewhat. We'll see...
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Yeah, I suppose it has been pretty consistent with the suppressed look but it's a big outlier and I've seen many times when the gfs has been suppressed only to correct north towards the other models as the event nears. When was the last time the gfs scored a coup for a major event when it was the lone outlier?
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The GFS almost always plays catch up in big events like this and has at least one run that's an outlier closer to the event. I wouldn't put much stock into it and will bet anything that it will bump north eventually.
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Hoo Boy. That rgem should wake up some weenies.
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I've always said that suppression is the biggest concern, that confluence means business. Even in the city, I'd be a bit concerned about a whiff south. Folks up north should definitely be concerned.
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Jeez, that Ukie is a Nukee.
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Great run for the city but that confluence is no joke, you don't want this to get suppressed too much. It's a pretty sharp cut off north of the city on this run.
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I'll run outside weenie out if this run verifies.
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Now THAT was a Mother of God run, that's a Mother and Father of God run.
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I would normally temper expectations this far out but usually when there's such a strong model consensus within 5 days and at least some room for error to work with, it's a strong indication that this should be at least a significant snow event for a good portion of the area. There's still lots that can go wrong, but the excitement is starting to build.
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
kat5hurricane replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Just stepped outside to the delight of light snow. I'm going to savour every flake in what could be a relatively flakeless season. -
Eye will.
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I think Feb 2006 was mostly forgotten because the heaviest snow fell in a smaller area relative to other blizzards and as you said, it melted within 2-3 days. Plus it occurred over the weekend so there were less people on the road. Having experienced the full fury of that storm, it is perhaps the most memorable of any storm I ever witnessed. I was visiting somebody in The Bronx and stayed overnight. The snow wasn't really that heavy when I went to sleep so I thought it would be a pedestrian major with a foot or so as was forecasted then I woke up to huge drifts and thundersnow going on for what seemed like an hour. I went to look for my car and couldn't find it because so many cars were buried in drifts. It then took us a couple of hours to dig out because I had to go home and drove over the Throgs Neck bridge which had piles of snow all the way through (never seen that before on a major bridge) and took me hours to get home. The pure intensity of that snow with the Death Band sitting over the city producing Severe Thundersnow is something I'll never forget. One of those moments when you remembered everything you were doing at that time in every detail. Feb '06, Boxing Day and PDII are king for me in my 40 years. Honourable mentions to Jan '16 and Jan '96.
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'14-'15 was a lot like that too in the second half particularly. Lots of moderate 4-8 type events but consistent cold keeping the snowpack with what seemed like weekly snow events keeping the pack intact and fresh. That was my favourite winter simply because it was endless winter. '10-'11 had the massive storms but the snowpacks were short lived. February 2006 might have been my favourite storm because the thundersnow was so intense and long lasting, never seen anything like it before or after. PDIi for the long duration and bitter cold is high up on the list too. So many others over the last 25 years that can be included as well. The '96 Blizzards, Boxing Day, Jan 2016 etc. We've been spoiled big time, a Golden Era of snow this century. I expect a regression to the mean eventually with some relatively snowless winters like last year for instance.
