kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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The 6z Euro did not move east. The EPS did a bit though. Agreed in general though. Not good trends overall outside of the Nam.
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Not favoring any model over the other but what could lend a little more credence to the Euro is that it's been pretty steadfast with its solution over the last 3 days now? while the GFS has been jumping back and forth. The Ukie showing a whiff last night was concerning, we need that to trend significantly west today.
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Then it gets tugged (captured?) back northwest for a time at 78 then northeast again at 84. Haven't looked at the upper levels but the whole run was weird, one big zig zag. Also weird that at 72, the low was well east of the convection.
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The GFS jumped way east at 72 hours but it looks wonky because the low jumped straight east from 60 to 66 hours. Don't know what to make of that.
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The low was virtually in the same position on the rgem with maybe a slight tick east, it's just that the precip was more expansive on the 6z. Just like with the Nam, take with a grain of salt.
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It went east last night. Not by much but it stopped the west trend it was making the previous 2 days. Could be just model noise, we'll see in about an hour. Edit: I didn't see that it ticked back west at 6z. My apologies
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Uh yeah, I think I'll take that Nam run, nice trend towards the Euro. Just the Nam but a damn good start to the 12z suite. Really need to get that stubborn GFS on board, it went the wrong way last night.
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Sheesh, the Euro is going all in. It's pretty much on its own sending the real big totals NYC and west so unless the other models trend towards it today (they went the wrong way last night), I tend to think that it's out to lunch based on its performance as of late. It's been consistent though, I'll say that much.
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It did speed up a bit and was a bit weaker but yeah, it's mainly model noise. I'm more referencing the other models that did not trend towards the Euro and in fact, the GFS went the other way and the Ukie is a complete whiff. I would liked to have seen a little more consensus forming but there's even more of a split after tonight.
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Not great trends tonight to be honest. Lets see what tomorrow brings.
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How does it compare to the last run?
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Well, obviously that's the risk but it's not "all she wrote" because of one GFS run that barely budged 3 days before the event. However, if the Euro takes a noticeable shift east tonight, it's trouble.
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Jesus, can you people stop with posts like this? It adds nothing to the discussion. The GFS has been doing the windshield wiper thing the last few days. Not saying it's wrong but it hasn't been that consistent either. The final solution is far from locked in at this point.
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The Nam went from tuck to blow.
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Man, the nam is tucked and looks ready to blow up post 84 hour frame.
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Yes but the GFS has been trending west ever since 18z yesterday. It could be a windshield wiper effect situation where it goes east again but it's not like the GFS has been consistent with its solution. In any event, conservative is definitely the way to go until a consensus forms.
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You're not wrong but it should be noted how consistent the Euro has been the last few days as well as how tightly clustered the ensembles are. Very far from a locked in position especially with the variance of the other models but it's a good spot to be in right now which, of course, can change quickly.
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We definitely don't need "substantial" changes to get 12+ from the city on west. The suburbs are another story
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That's a pretty significant jump west by the GFS. Not Euro like, but trending in the right direction since the 18z whiff yesterday.
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GFS is doing the windshield wiper thing. Went well east at 18z then back west at 00z. Still way too early to make any determination. It would be nice to see the CMC somewhat hold serve since it sniffed out this thing first.
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But could also be detrimental for the coast with the phase causing a closer track to the coast. That's what makes this such a thread the needle event, so much can go wrong in either direction.
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Maybe for a 24+ inch storm but you could get a 12-18 inch storm even with a fast mover, it's happened before.
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You can't really take the surface maps too seriously at this point and the east/west windshield wiper effect. What we do know is that there looks to be a really big storm somewhere. All the other stuff will be ironed out over the next few days. It does seem very thread the needle though. A lot will have to line up perfectly to get big snows here so don't get your hopes up too high.
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Man, this storm has massive potential as well as massive heartbreak potential but that's what makes tracking fun, eh? If this comes to fruition, when was the last time the CMC led the way when it was on its own? I honestly can't remember.
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Like 95% of the population does.
