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kat5hurricane

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Everything posted by kat5hurricane

  1. kat5hurricane
    SWFEs usually underperform here at the coast, I never get excited about them. We just better hope that the thump is going to be very heavy because the changeover time seems to get sped up with every set of runs.
  2. kat5hurricane
    Three things that were predictable. The GFS caving, the north trend and that the NWS was way too aggressive with their initial maps. I'd say 6-10" locally but on the lower end of that range probably.
  3. kat5hurricane
    I was going to say this. 18z and 6z are generally pretty wonky, I'd put more stock into the 12z and 0z runs
  4. kat5hurricane
    Upton did the same and I didn't get it. It's always best to start conservative then adjust upwards if needed. People see numbers like those and think it'll be a crippling storm. I know they have a tough job and they know a hell of a lot more than me but it seemed a bit irresponsible to throw out numbers that high IMO.
  5. kat5hurricane
    One thing is for certain, the models are all beefing up the QPF which at the very least is going to strengthen the thump before any mixing. Westchester on North are going to get crushed either way, probably some 18+" totals there.
  6. kat5hurricane
    That's a really big thump on the nam before any mixing
  7. kat5hurricane
    They're going to adjust that downwards almost certainly I'd think, they've already started the process of lowering totals with the new update. I can't see a widespread 12+ outside of the NW burbs
  8. kat5hurricane
    There will still be a nice thump of snow but IMO the bigger story is becoming the sleet. 6-10" of snow with a ton of sleet on top is going to be create big problems in the coming days with the very cold week coming up and it icing up even further.
  9. kat5hurricane
    The trends are pretty clear and it's not colder. This might not be done trending yet
  10. kat5hurricane
    Snow amounts haven't changed much in the 0z suite but the QPF has gone up so it's a lot more sleet. 6-10" of snow and a crapload of sleet is going to create skating rinks all over the tri-state with a frigid week following it. It's going to be treacherous
  11. kat5hurricane
    It sure did, as expected with it sitting on its own.
  12. kat5hurricane
    The GFS looks like a shifted a bit towards the other models, not surprised at all. This could be the beginning of the trend of the GFS caving
  13. kat5hurricane
    Not surprised at the north/warming trend as SWFEs frequently do, I suspect that the GFS will start to fall in line with the other models starting now but it's still a significant snow at least.
  14. kat5hurricane
    There will be a wall of snow before any mixing even on the warmest models so I don't see any chance that anybody outside of south Jersey sees only 4". I think the floor for all of us is 6" and I think that might be too low. 6-8" minimum is the absolute floor and could be up 10-14" or maybe even more if the coastal really cranks but I just don't see anybody only getting 4".
  15. kat5hurricane
    That's very bullish. It seems like Mt. Holly and Upton are going more aggressive in the past decade or so compared to their usual conservative nature. It's possible I suppose but 13-14+ areawide seems like a longshot IMO
  16. kat5hurricane
    When the GFS is on its own I'd just about discount it. It will likely fall in line with other guidance at the last minute like it usually does
  17. kat5hurricane
    I find that thumps in SWFEs tend to underachieve a bit and mix quicker than modeled. I think the higher ceiling depends on if the costal gets going but otherwise looks like a 6-8" to sleet type of deal for coastal areas. Those in Rockland and further NW look to be in a great spot for major snows but 6-8" would be the biggest storm in years for coastal areas so we'll certainly take that.
  18. kat5hurricane
    This is why it's hard to get too excited about SWFEs. The trend seems to be warming of the mid levels and bringing in more mixing as is usually the case in these situations. I bet that the GFS starts moving off the colder solutions soon. Looks like a solid storm regardless, just maybe not a major outside of the suburbs.
  19. kat5hurricane
    I'm looking at trends. Outside of the flatter GFS which is a garbage model lets be honest and a follower more than a leader, most other models are starting to introduce a warm layer that cuts down on totals somewhat and this might not be done trending, that SE Ridge often times plays a factor. Regardless, the floor looks to be a significant snow before any changeover so it's not a bad place to be.
  20. kat5hurricane
    It's looking more like a SWFE with a heavy thump to ice mess as opposed to the cold long duration storm it looked like a few days ago but 6-8"+ is nothing to sneeze at especially after recent winters. My concern is that these things tend to trend north and we can't afford many more trends north close to the city at least, I think everybody NW of the city are sitting pretty now.
  21. kat5hurricane
    I'm not making any judgments about trends until the 0z suite. The 18z runs almost always have wonky solutions.
  22. kat5hurricane
    I don't see any models showing mixing issues until the main show is over so I don't agree that it's a big concern now but we need the primary low to stop trending north now, there's less wiggle room than there was 24 hours ago. Sometimes models (the windshield wiper effect) overcorrect in one direction then move back the other way before the final solution so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some flatter solutions at 0z. Still a lot of solutions on the table.
  23. kat5hurricane
    PDII was kind of like this but a little less coverage than the models are currently printing out. These long duration storms are my favorite, nice cold storm with steady 1"/hr rates for many hours.
  24. kat5hurricane
    There's a pretty high floor with this system because it's so large with tons of moisture and very cold air but the question is the phasing which would create a much higher ceiling. This doesn't feel like a thread the needle situation that we usually see in these parts with an all or nothing scenario.
  25. kat5hurricane
    PDII was a two part system but, yes, it's rare to get a two part wallop at the coast especially
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