No signs of mixing here, visibility very low. I'm starting to wonder if there should have been a Blizzard Warning, winds have been whipping with heavy snow for a few hours now. It's treacherous out there
Agreed, we're almost halfway there already and we're going to really thump for the next 3-4 hours at minimum with 1-2" rates. Most of us will likely end up with a foot at this rate.
Snow in the teens is a beautiful and rare sight around these parts. It's been pretty light the last half hour or so but looks to be about, maybe, 3" here just eyeballing it. Looking forward to the heavier stuff a little later but that will also be a sign that the mix line is approaching.
The RGEM showing the big thump gives me some hope, and the UKIE as well. I can't much if any stock into what the HRRR and RAP show, they almost always run on the cold side.
As I suspected the NAM isn't backing down, it's been pretty consistent. Whether or not that means it's correct is another story but you can't discount this potential solution.
I never found the HRRR or the RAP to be very accurate so it's just eye candy as far as I'm concerned but still nice to see nevertheless.
The NAM has been pretty steady in flooding the area with warm air at the mid levels so I don't see it backing down that much.
We only have patches here, I'm near the Throgs Neck bridge and all throughout the town it's the same deal and Bayside as well, I was out and about most of the day. Where in Whitestone are you that you have almost full coverage? Not that I doubt you but it's pretty bare here.
In Brooklyn? I'm surprised. I have virtually nothing here and I'm well north of you in Whitestone, Queens.
Either way, we're all getting thumped tomorrow so it'll be fun.
I figured as much so that tempers the excitement for the higher totals a bit but either way even with a lot of sleet this is going to be a high impact storm and this is going to be one of the most wintry looking weeks that we've had in years maybe a decade or so with the snow and ice sticking around for a long time. Kind of '14'15 ish
First of all, I didn't even know the CMC had ensembles. Second, the CMC has been pretty bearish on this event from the beginning so this is a big surprise.
VERY bullish, 10-12" areawide seems highly unlikely but they're in the process of lowering the numbers little by little, they were at 13-15" yesterday, so I expect them to continue lowering amounts as we near the event.
I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call. The NWS also went overly aggressive, like way too aggressive so those totals will be lowered soon I'd think.
The GFS should almost always be discounted especially when it's on its own like it was in this case.