kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now
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Sorry, I'm late to this but I just saw this and it brought back some great memories seeing you and some of the older posters doing play by play. It's really nice to see you back.
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The amount of QPF the nam and GFS are printing out are almost unbelievable. I would never discount a pretty reliable model but the rgem is an outlier at this point so I'm not sure how much stock we can put into it. I also find it to be dry generally headed into these big events.
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2.3 inches of liquid on the nam? What? Lol we knew the nam'd run was incoming. If we had eggplant emojis here I'd post a whole bushel of them
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I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists.
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The news outlets are always late to catch on. I haven't watched them for years because of this.
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February 2006
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It's a big improvement though. I can't believe I'm saying this but every model is following the GFS. What world are we living in?
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That's a historic depiction on the GFS, kind of speechless looking at that tbh. Getting some January 1996 vibes with these late north bumps.
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kat5hurricane as well
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All the models are making a clear trend in the right direction but we need this thing to not occlude that far south or this will be a run in the mill moderate to maybe significant snowstorm. That's probably the favored outcome now but it's so close, painfully close, to something much bigger.
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No matter what the final solution shows, the NAM took a big step towards the GFS which is what we want to see.
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Just a shot in the dark here but the love child of Anthony and Weathergeek?
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The Euro pulling a bit of a windshield wiper effect going a bit east gives me pause but what I'd give for the GFS to verify. I have GFS failure PTSD though so I just can't trust that damn thing. It's still the only model brining the big snows up here. Edit: I see that the 6z Euro moved back west a bit. This is one of the most unpredictable forecasts that I can remember
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The key is trends and every model so far is trending strongly in the right direction. Still need more positive trends to get in the really good stuff though but it's painfully close
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Well, better than shit from the beginning. It went from overall shit to getting shit on at the last minute.
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The NAM isn't quite there yet but it's all about the trends and this was a big trend in the right direction and gives some credibility to the trends we saw in the 18z suite.
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Pretty wild, I didn't see this coming but it could also be a windshield wiper effect with such a drastic shift so I can see it correcting back east a bit at 0z but, who knows, this whole thing has been really unpredictable. The EPS had been pretty steady up until this cycle so this is a pretty big surprise.
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That's what I'm thinking, 0z will be way more telling but regardless this is exactly the type of shift we needed to give some credibility to the GFS solution.
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Ok, I might be eating some major crow here. I did not see this happening with the Euro AT ALL, it has hardly waivered for days. It could be a windshield wiper effect when it corrects back east eventually but this is a surprising turn of events. Then again 18z runs tend to be wonky so not sure how serious this shift is.
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It's bashed for a reason, it never verifies when it's an outlier. If it pulls it off this time being an outlier I'd be beyond shocked because that would be unprecedented for this model.
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The GFS is the only one that stuck to the big hit idea, all the others moved off of it. We can all see where this is going when the GFS is on its own. When was the last time it scored a coup when it was on its own? I honestly don't remember
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Ok so 0z it is lol @Wxbear25 The GFS has been consistent with this solution, I'll give it that much, but unless we see other models converge on anything close to this it's hard to take seriously.
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Never said that the Euro was infallible and in fact I emphasized that point in my posts but the odds are when the highest scoring model doesn't buy a solution for many cycles odds are in its favor and it's just my own instinct from being a weather junkie for decades that the Euro is more often a leader than the GFS. I'd bet anything that we see the GFS start to cave starting now and if not then likely by 0z.
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There's no pessimism. It's a recognition of pattern, seasonal trends and two other things, when the Euro locks in on a solution for days despite some of its flaws it's usually best to roll with it and when the GFS is an outlier it's best to ignore it.
