kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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Very light, very wet snow here. I know it's going to wet blub eventually but I wonder if some of the projected totals near the city and out east might be a little too high due to losing some accumulations because of warm temps at the onset. I think the lower end of the 3-6 inch forecast is realistic.
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The rgem was way more wrong than the other models. It was still holding on to an inland runner just yesterday, the only model showing anything close to that solution. The Canadians took a major L on this one.
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As a diehard Lions fan I sadly remember that game all too well but that's in the distant past, time to beat those Commandos tonight.
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And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters.
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I lean way towards the euro/ukie combo than the Canadian combo but a blend of them is usually the way to go when there's such a split. It does seem like the cmc is an outlier but I don't think it can be discounted entirely either.
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Why does it have to be one model wrong or the other? More than likely the actual solution will fall somewhere in the middle.
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The Rgem still being amped is concerning, getting into the range where it's becoming more reliable and I still can't get out of my head that Forky was leaning towards the rain solution.
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I'm not saying it's likely but I wouldn't discount it either. We've seen scenarios where last minute shifts from a consensus move to a model that wasn't consensus, it's rare but it's happened before. With that said, a blend of the models is a reasonable forecast which puts us in a decent spot.
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I would not discount the RGEM teamed with Forky thinking rain.
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Light snow that's really sticking whatever little is falling, had to dust off the car. Nice scene
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Agreed, his instinct is far more right than wrong even when it goes against consensus so that gives me real pause in dismissing the rain solution. There's still enough time for the models to overamp this too so I think the rain option should still be on the table.
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It'll have a '13-'14 feel if we can get a nice moderate 4-8" storm with prolonged cold to follow and perhaps some nickel and dime events to refresh the snowpack.
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lol no but when Snowman is on board for a snow event you know something is going down. Actually, Forky is the one you pay attention to when he's honking for a snowstorm. Once he sends out the Batsnow Signal then you know we're good.
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Honestly, even slightly below normal for a lengthy amount of time feels impressively cold compared to what our bodies have been used to feeling this decade of winters. At least to me it does, so next week is going to feel brutal but at least it'll feel less brutal if we have some snowcover to enjoy.
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Agreed that cold and dry is the worst but we need the cold air around to have shots at snow even if they're only nickel and dime events. '13-'14 was kind of like this before the bigger events happened later that winter. This has been the coldest winter that I remember in a long time (barely below normal but colder than recent winters) and it's going to be cold for a while longer so I'll take my chances with that to greater the chances of snow.
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There's been around 6" here thus far with plenty of cold, also had a White Christmas. I guess it's all relative considering how bad 3 of the last 4 winters have been but I would hardly consider this a "disaster" winter, at least here in NE Queens. Certainly not what I'd call a good winter but not a disaster.
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Yep, winter has been fine thus far. I don't get all the complaining. It could have been better considering the colder pattern but beggars can't be choosers and we are beggars after 3 out of 4 dud winters.
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Slightly below normal in winter is indeed....cold fyi
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The thing is, our little community is the vast minority of society in loving not only snow but also cold. My girlfriend is the same way, can't stand the cold while I'm walking around like it's no big deal and I had to explain what a "snow weenie" is to her which, understandably, she was perplexed by haha. Long story short, we're a bunch of weirdos here at americanwx but at least we have each other in this little community because nobody else understands this obsession of ours.
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Oh it's cold lol and feels especially cold because we haven't been used to this in recent winters. It's the wind that's making it cold and the dry air that's creating dry skin, crappy weather. No wind and it wouldn't be bad. I also went to a funeral yesterday out in Farmingdale where it felt like 50mph winds with 25 degree temperatures at the gravesite so I was out in it for a while. Cold as a brick.
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Cold and dry, the worst
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Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Coming down nicely in midtown, some bigger flakes mixing in. Nice scenes -
Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I think there's a cap to how far north this can get considering the strength of the confluence. It's more than likely a 2-3 max sort of deal around NYC and 1-2 seems more likely, this is probably a Mid Atlantic special. Either way, whatever falls will stick around for a while so it'll feel like winter at least. -
It's weird seeing so much of that blue stuff on a weather map, perfect timing too in deep winter as opposed to spring like in years past. Timing it up with snow is a whole other issue but having extended cold air in place is half the battle
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What is this white stuff I woke up to? At least 2 inches just eyeballing it here in Whitestone possibly 3, beautiful surprise. Snow on Christmas week, kinda, haven't had that in a while.
