kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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Some of us might get our normal seasonal snow total in this one storm. That's where we're at with this potential
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Everybody is smacked, shellacked, any other acked term you want to throw out there. The Nam continues to outnam itself every run. Wild stuff
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I think this is locked in at this point so I don't know how important 0z is outside of some small adjustments here and there of the heaviest snow. Anything that happens now is noise basically, a big one is coming regardless.
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I mean, lol when 12-24" pretty much areawide outside of far north and west is considered "safe" yet here we are.
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The RGEM is usually too dry in these big storm scenarios, same with most of the globals. They don't generally pick up on the dynamics and banding as well as the short range, hi-res models.
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The 3k nam is still 2 feet in some places
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This happens all the time. The globals always come in dry leading up to big snowstorms, seen it happen many times. Time to focus more on the mesos now that we're almost 24 hours away. 12" seems like the floor for most of us considering how intense this system will be, of course there will be subsidence somewhere so some might get shafted but this is a big one for just about all of us.
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2.5 inches of liquid on the NAM has me speechless, that HRRR run was wild as well. I have no doubt now that the Euro caves and brings in the higher totals, wouldn't be the first time the Euro was too dry leading right up to a big storm.
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Woah, woke up to a Blizzard Warning!!! I don't remember the last one. I'm.going food shopping soon, it's going to be an absolute nightmare.
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The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now
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Sorry, I'm late to this but I just saw this and it brought back some great memories seeing you and some of the older posters doing play by play. It's really nice to see you back.
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The amount of QPF the nam and GFS are printing out are almost unbelievable. I would never discount a pretty reliable model but the rgem is an outlier at this point so I'm not sure how much stock we can put into it. I also find it to be dry generally headed into these big events.
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2.3 inches of liquid on the nam? What? Lol we knew the nam'd run was incoming. If we had eggplant emojis here I'd post a whole bushel of them
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I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists.
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The news outlets are always late to catch on. I haven't watched them for years because of this.
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February 2006
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It's a big improvement though. I can't believe I'm saying this but every model is following the GFS. What world are we living in?
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That's a historic depiction on the GFS, kind of speechless looking at that tbh. Getting some January 1996 vibes with these late north bumps.
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kat5hurricane as well
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All the models are making a clear trend in the right direction but we need this thing to not occlude that far south or this will be a run in the mill moderate to maybe significant snowstorm. That's probably the favored outcome now but it's so close, painfully close, to something much bigger.
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No matter what the final solution shows, the NAM took a big step towards the GFS which is what we want to see.
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Just a shot in the dark here but the love child of Anthony and Weathergeek?
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The Euro pulling a bit of a windshield wiper effect going a bit east gives me pause but what I'd give for the GFS to verify. I have GFS failure PTSD though so I just can't trust that damn thing. It's still the only model brining the big snows up here. Edit: I see that the 6z Euro moved back west a bit. This is one of the most unpredictable forecasts that I can remember
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The key is trends and every model so far is trending strongly in the right direction. Still need more positive trends to get in the really good stuff though but it's painfully close
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Well, better than shit from the beginning. It went from overall shit to getting shit on at the last minute.
