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kat5hurricane

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Everything posted by kat5hurricane

  1. kat5hurricane
    I find that thumps in SWFEs tend to underachieve a bit and mix quicker than modeled. I think the higher ceiling depends on if the costal gets going but otherwise looks like a 6-8" to sleet type of deal for coastal areas. Those in Rockland and further NW look to be in a great spot for major snows but 6-8" would be the biggest storm in years for coastal areas so we'll certainly take that.
  2. kat5hurricane
    This is why it's hard to get too excited about SWFEs. The trend seems to be warming of the mid levels and bringing in more mixing as is usually the case in these situations. I bet that the GFS starts moving off the colder solutions soon. Looks like a solid storm regardless, just maybe not a major outside of the suburbs.
  3. kat5hurricane
    I'm looking at trends. Outside of the flatter GFS which is a garbage model lets be honest and a follower more than a leader, most other models are starting to introduce a warm layer that cuts down on totals somewhat and this might not be done trending, that SE Ridge often times plays a factor. Regardless, the floor looks to be a significant snow before any changeover so it's not a bad place to be.
  4. kat5hurricane
    It's looking more like a SWFE with a heavy thump to ice mess as opposed to the cold long duration storm it looked like a few days ago but 6-8"+ is nothing to sneeze at especially after recent winters. My concern is that these things tend to trend north and we can't afford many more trends north close to the city at least, I think everybody NW of the city are sitting pretty now.
  5. kat5hurricane
    I'm not making any judgments about trends until the 0z suite. The 18z runs almost always have wonky solutions.
  6. kat5hurricane
    I don't see any models showing mixing issues until the main show is over so I don't agree that it's a big concern now but we need the primary low to stop trending north now, there's less wiggle room than there was 24 hours ago. Sometimes models (the windshield wiper effect) overcorrect in one direction then move back the other way before the final solution so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some flatter solutions at 0z. Still a lot of solutions on the table.
  7. kat5hurricane
    PDII was kind of like this but a little less coverage than the models are currently printing out. These long duration storms are my favorite, nice cold storm with steady 1"/hr rates for many hours.
  8. kat5hurricane
    There's a pretty high floor with this system because it's so large with tons of moisture and very cold air but the question is the phasing which would create a much higher ceiling. This doesn't feel like a thread the needle situation that we usually see in these parts with an all or nothing scenario.
  9. kat5hurricane
    PDII was a two part system but, yes, it's rare to get a two part wallop at the coast especially
  10. kat5hurricane
    February 2010 was one of the most painful times for me as a snow lover. This one is giving me those vibes unfortunately but plenty of time left for changes obviously.
  11. kat5hurricane
    That's what gives me a bit more confidence. These large sprawling long duration events are generally more accurately modelled than the thread the needle faster moving ones. As of now, it's just nice to have something to track.
  12. kat5hurricane
    Give us this look in 2-3 days and I'll get excited but when you see a model consensus on a big storm in the vicinity even if it's still almost a week out it definitely deserves attention.
  13. kat5hurricane
    I'm very concerned about suppression, that's some serious cold pressing down this weekend. As is the case most of the time with these patterns, the best chance for a big storm is when the pattern relaxes a bit but at least we have some tracking to do in the meantime which is a god send after 3-4 winters of not even mere tracking.
  14. kat5hurricane
    Radar looks pretty good to me. Steady light snow now sticking everywhere, looks nice and wintry.
  15. kat5hurricane
    Good tip, I just tried that and you're right. I actually do most of my Americanwx browsing on my phone but I usually look at it vertically except when I'm watching videos. As an aside, snow finally starting to stick in Whitestone now that the rates are picking up a bit.
  16. kat5hurricane
    Oh that's right, good point. I didn't take that into account
  17. kat5hurricane
    It's right there in my location, right to the left of this post haha. Whitestone
  18. kat5hurricane
    Nothing but white rain thus far
  19. kat5hurricane
    That's exactly what I said lol
  20. kat5hurricane
    I didn't expect it to accumulate on all surfaces so quickly but that's what heavier rates will do for you especially in January.
  21. kat5hurricane
    I did not expect this, I went into the store with just wet ground and a few flurries and a half an hour later... This was about a half hour ago, it's approaching about 2" now. Very nice surprise
  22. kat5hurricane
    I may have jumped the gun. Just went out there and it's about 3" and the heaviest of the night is coming down now and piling up quickly, hoping to get 4-5 out of it.
  23. kat5hurricane
    It looks nice outside but it's definitely on the low end of the 4-8" predictions, lower than that actually. We had 1-2 hours of moderate snow and that's about it. We'll see how the rest of the night plays out but it's been a pretty lame storm overall.
  24. kat5hurricane
    Snowing pretty good in Whitestone. I'd say at least a couple of inches and snowing moderately
  25. kat5hurricane
    The North Shore of L.I. always does well compared to the city especially in Suffolk.
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