kat5hurricane

Yeah, those numbers are way high. I don't see a good chunk of the metro getting 12"+. Maybe up to 8 in spots.

Slopfest in Whitestone. Very wet snow, coating the grass but most roads are wet. Rates are just too light thus far.

He's probably the most accurate met on this site. His word is as close to gospel as one can get in this field.

I know. People keep talking about wet roads in these marginal situations but most people live outside of the heat island. Bottom line, if it snows hard enough it will stick everywhere even with marginal temps. This is February 12th, not March 12th. It's all about the dynamics and this storm looks to be a quick heavy thump.

If it was March I'd agree but being mid February still, the city can really accumulate even in a marginal setup if the storm is dynamic enough outside of midtown Manhattan of course. I think 3-6 is a good call for the city right now, more just north of the city but it was higher potential IMO.

Wow, I had all but given up on this yesterday afternoon then see the thread title saying "6-12" for many" and couldn't believe my eyes. I'd still be wary of any last minute north trends (I don't buy suppression) but the trend and model consensus is undeniable. Suffice to say that the 12z suite is going to be critical.

The trends are usually north even in good winters which is why you almost always want a suppressed look several days in advance.

Shows how delicate the setup is. Need pretty much a perfect track and a very dynamic storm to get anything more than mood flakes.

I don't either. This event is way too thread the needle for my liking, for those of us near the coast at least, and it's hard to ignore the usual north trends leading up to events like this.

Isn't this forum designed for discussing patterns, even patterns that are weeks out? It seems kind of disingenuous to disparage those who are posting well reasoned thoughts about future patterns. Same goes for those that post future torch patterns such as yourself, you shouldn't be ridiculed for that either.

Does anybody rate '15-'16 highly? It was a one historic storm winter similar to '05-'06. Two very memorable storms though.

SUN!!!! Oh how I missed you, you beautiful yellow thing.

Yep haha. You've been through here before?

About 2" here, sticking everywhere but the main roads. More than I thought we'd get in northeast Queens.

Flizzard. Hours and hours of flurries

The meltdowns over a storm that was never a big deal in the first place.

It's a pile of cement around my way so with the 1-2 inches of fluff tomorrow and cold this weekend, it'll stick around for a while.

For sure but it usually doesn't sniff out the warm layer until we get really close to the event. Regardless, this is a light snow event. We should enjoy it before the inevitable warmup fires up again.

When has the Nam ever been ON its rocker? This was always a 1-3 inch deal for most of us.

Yes, as does the great winters of '95-'96 and '10-'11 but I wouldn't call those the norm. Even in the snow drought of the 80s and 90s, we had less than 10 inches only 2 years out of 20 and these are Central Park measurements where the least snow is usually found in the metro area outside of segments of the south shore. Multiple snow events at minimum are common just about every year. That has not been the case the last 2 winters. General point, and I'm sorry for derailing this thread, is that NYC doesn't need a miracle to snow unless you're specifying that statement to 10+ inch events.

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

This just isn't true. If getting any snow was ALWAYS a miracle then NYC would average less than 10 inches a year. If you want to talk KUs then I agree but I think it's quite a stretch to say that getting any snow in NYC is a miracle when it's averaged almost 30 inches a year for a century. I would agree that this is a marginal area for snow and it's tough to get all snow events but it's not a snow desert around here generally. The last 2 winters have fooled people into thinking this is the norm just like 2000-2018 did in the opposite direction.

NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome.

Raining hard here now. There's going to be some serious black ice issues tomorrow when all these puddles freeze