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Yeah I have been watching that and was concerned about whether that could come up the coast and exasperate the rain, especially with the trough coming into place. I would suppose the track will really depend on how sharp the trough gets (where the axis sets up) or whether it manages to get cut off and sits and spins somewhere. As a rain update, I picked up another 1/4" since my last post for a total this morning of 0.63" (and a 2-day total of 1.24"). Currently drizzle and mist with temp 68 and dp 68, steaming up the windows.
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Some decent rain to the far NW in the region, but what a massive bust. I had one period of heavy rain overnight that was pretty quick. I'd estimate I ended up with a quarter inch or so. LOL.
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.4" overnight, all from one cell
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Burnt lawns getting a much needed meal.
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Looks like a wet morning. Up to 1.02”.
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Nice. I bet it smells amazing through there right now.
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I'll keep the plants watered. My yard is fried, so not stressing the well pump on that. I will reseed yet again in 2 months. Would help if these dry spells didn't always happen in July though.
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Knew this would happen, but it still sucks.
- Today
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Saw that this formed last night I believe.
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Woke up to nothing in the rain gauge. Going to be pretty dry around here with no rain in the foreseeable future.
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Currently getting moderate rain and am at 0.38" at post time. Ended up with 0.61" total yesterday once round 2 came through after 10 pm, with almost 1.5"/hr rates (2-day total 0.99" so far). Temp is 69.
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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CIK62 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1.5degs AN. Month to date is +3.7[80.1]. Should be +3.1[79.5] by the 31st. 71.5* here at 6am. -
Still dumping rain here when I got up at 4:15. No thunder or lightning just steady rain. No wonder it's going to be so cool today.
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Though convection reinitiated over night, it's elongated along the northern half of the broader wave axis quite a distance away from the estimated vortex track plot. I'm having a tough time finding an ill-defined center on radar but it may be the isolated cluster of cells to the northwest of Grand Bahama. Curved banding of the stronger complex to the north may be limited to mid level turning even if that feature has taken over. At any rate, the system has a stretched appearance and isn't aligned. I am beating a dead horse.
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Not one drop. It was actually pretty predictable looking at the guidance, but I didn't even need that to know how this was gonna go lol. Probably get a few light pity showers later this morning as the final wave clobbers areas just to the SE.
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*Inserts virtual trap door for you to fall through*
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No need to chastise the OP. This is hopefully a learning curve for future reference. Though the system is classified, that is not the point. The issue wasn't "the call" in so much as the excessive nature of the thread and initial post that started it, regardless of TC development. We all have opinions and ideas to share on any initial area of interest. However, there is a single post by the author in the main seasonal thread that pertains to the disturbance that became TD3. Without any further discussion, much less input from anyone else, decided to begin a storm thread on a non-classified system with language that suggested a potentially dangerous situation unfolding. Now perhaps that could have been the case, and in the future, it most certainly will be the case. We have had times that mere disturbances / invests warranted a serious tone due to practical confidence, modeling and meteorological support. But TD3 was not one of those times. And yes, I realize some systems are missed by the models, but that still isn't the point here. We have a seasonal thread to iron out differences of opinion on each individual invest. We can share all the data from the models and from leading forecasters, many of whom are on social media. If everyone takes responsibility on their posts and participates accordingly, we don't end up having a thread digress into mockery on the subforum. TL;DR version: As a general rule, don't start a storm thread on a system until it is officially classified a tropical cyclone. If discussion in the seasonal thread warrants a storm thread on an invest/disturbance, a single person won't need to make that call. Rest assured many will already be hyping on the disturbance. This isn't a race to see who posts first, neither is it journalism. Nobody gets recognition or an award for being the first. Likewise, don't get your feelings hurt if you are proven wrong. Many of us here have been flat wrong many times about tropical systems, but that does not mean we were irresponsible with our words.
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Dangerous and Explosive™
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0.01”
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Whoops
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Sounds very dangerous there @Windspeed
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Picked up 1.85" of rain for the day yesterday High for the day was 89
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Been pretty dry here in Derwood the past few days with storms firing all around us. Finally getting some much needed rain right now though. Radar doesn't look great but I'll take what I can get.
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Flash Flood threat nw NJ se NYS now and possible flood threat linger into Tuesday
Rtd208 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Picked up 1.85" of rain for the day yesterday High for the day was 89 -
July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Rtd208 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Picked up 1.85" of rain for the day yesterday High for the day was 89
