All Activity

Ratio of “thunderstorm chances” in the forecast to anything of note actually happening has been abysmal for a long time now here. Desperately need a Wisconsin MCS charging across the lake. Any time now. This afternoon popup garbage avoids GRR every single time. Trash climatology getting worse.

They need to just replace the mt holly radar at this point

OK folks. We actually sighted the Sun today. We ALMOST hit 90. Hardly any rain, getting all excited about Monday, SUN WITH EGYPT-LIKE SUMMER CONDITIONS! Man I'll go out and jebwalk, pretend to be looking for hieroglyphic inscriptions at Amarna! I was SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO STOKED! Then my heart was shattered by the latest from NWS. Flood Watch National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 TXZ171>173-184>194-203>208-071800- /O.NEW.KEWX.FA.A.0005.250707T0446Z-250708T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie- Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-Comal- Guadalupe-Caldwell- Including the cities of Llano, Fredericksburg, Bastrop, Uvalde, Blanco, Georgetown, Lockhart, Bandera, Austin, Rocksprings, San Antonio, Boerne, Hondo, New Braunfels, Seguin, Leakey, Kerrville, San Marcos, Giddings, and Burnet 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Local rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with 10 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of south central Texas, including the following counties, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Comal, Edwards, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Hays, Kendall, Kerr, Lee, Llano, Medina, Real, Travis, Uvalde and Williamson. * WHEN...Through 7 PM CDT Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A moist tropical airmass combined with a slow moving storm system will bring another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms overnight into Monday morning with heavy rain rates possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ CP This broken record of an Energizer Bunny forecast is starting to read like a George BM forecast! This, is definitely NOT enjoyable. We are stuck in this nightmarish RUT, with no way out. ARE YOU KIDDIN' ME? The radar returns are evaporating! Drier air is advecting in right now at the mid levels! I was all excited about pretending to be Indiana Jones' Dad looking for the Holy Grail in old Egypt! This weather system is like a damned BROKEN RECORD! It just keeps on going, and going, and going! I can't BELIEVE this shoosh! The moisture is GONE! There is NO MORE LIFT! Someone at the National Weather Service is obsessed with this damned storm! GET OVER THIS ALREADY! It's high time to forecast 900dm upper ridge over Buda, for the next nine months, La Nina in place with highs in the lower to middle 110s, NO RAIN AT ALL and blistering Egypt-like sun blasting Amarna Buda with fiery heat! I'll be out there dusting off relics and pretending I am archeologisting in the hot countryside at Amarna!

You do realize that NOAA/NWS has always had geographic differences for criteria of advisories, watches and warnings of all different types? There are differing criteria for cold temperatures, frost/freeze, snow, etc as well. Here you are 100% correct in stating facts about temps in those other locations yet 100% wrong in your assessment as to why they did not receive advisories and we did... EDIT: Looks like several others have also brought up this point.

I play there when I'm up in York, I like the course. It is hard.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DLUx33htNZZ/?igsh=MTl4ZGNqbHV4NGsxbw==

juicy

It's the worst weather disaster we've had in MANY years, flooding can be really deadly. Sometimes I wish that they would just dam up rivers that are prone to this kind of flooding.

Looks like Tuesday might be our next shot at widespread 90 degrees, Tony??

wow that sounds much like our March 2010 noreaster when we had 80 mph winds!!

Do you think it will be like last Thursday was??

87

They’ll also have snow advisories when we don’t.

Newark an outlier. However it is in the hottest part of our region.

Thank you!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY AND INCREASED IN DURATION FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA... HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER AFFECTING ALAMANCE COUNTY. 250707T1727Z.NO/ 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING * WHAT...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * WHERE...HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER. * WHEN...UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AT 18.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING BEGINS. OVERFLOW BEGINS ON BOTH BANKS AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. AT 20.0 FEET, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW ON THE RIGHT BANK OPPOSITE THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. WATER ALSO REACHES THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE. AT 23.0 FEET, MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS. FLOODING REACHES THE BASE OF THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE, AND LANG ST WILL BE IMPASSABLE AT 25.5 FEET, THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING FLOODS. AT 26.0 FEET, TRAILER HOMES ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AND THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT FLOOD. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY. AT 27.0 FEET, MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. THE TOWN OF HAW RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD. AT 28.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE ACROSS I40. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 9:45 PM EDT SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. - FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO A CREST OF 27.5 FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. - FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. - FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 26.3 FEET ON 09/17/2018. - HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD FLD OBSERVED FORECASTS (8 PM EDT) LOCATION STG STG DAY/TIME MON TUE WED THU HAW RIVER HAW RIVE 18.0 25.5 SUN 9 PM EDT 14.0 10.6 8.4 6.0

Per NWS Each National Weather Service Forecast Office issues some or all of the following heat-related products as conditions warrant. NWS local offices often collaborate with local partners to determine when an alert should be issued for a local area. For instance, residents of Florida are much more prepared for 90°F+ weather than residents in Alaska.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED. PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND SUTPHIN.

Some places west of Raleigh have seen nearly 1 foot of rain! Forecast was for amounts of 1-4” with isolated totals of 6”. Per RadarScope I’m seeing widespread 5+” totals with several areas more than double that.

Considering what it’s doing to the polar Arctic region up there… I don’t think it’s a hell of a lot better

Highs: EWR: 95 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 86 ISP: 85

Highs: EWR: 95 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 86 ISP: 85

I think they actually base it off anomalies. Average temperature in Indianapolis is higher than Boston hence...

More misleading nonsense. Regarding the Tokyo data, you know something’s up when there’s a graph from Tony Heller’s wife limited to 1994-2021. You can pull up the raw data for Tokyo from JMA. There is, in fact, an inhomogeneity flagged in December 2014, consistent with the inflection point in this small subset of data. So the bias correction appears to be correct. Moreover, the long-term trend is actually greatly reduced by the UHI correction. That’s why nothing before 1994 is shown there. Further, the two warmest years in the raw data are the last two years (even without correcting for the change that occurred in 2014). 2025 appears well on its way to approaching those highs. Feel free to look for yourself: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/stats/data/en/index.html

Yeah, anyway this is like standard summer heat today… It wasn’t out of control If that’s what people’s point is, I don’t have problem with that. So the reason why the heat index is the same here as it is and Atlanta Georgia or Florida Dallas or whatever, yet no advisory, is because of acclamation bias, which is a very real legitimate concern - has to be factored into pulling headline triggers. Ex, Virginia Beach gets a winter storm warning and a town shut down for four days over 3 inches of snow