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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
You want trough to teleconnect with the Valley from East Asia this would be it,sad thing it's far out -
Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nothing but a suck pattern upcoming,ridge even looks stronger from a 588dm to a 591 dm tonight,,argggg.We should have a good system though into the 1st week of June,it should kick the ridge off to the east,there is nothing dirty about it in the mean time -
May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
wxallannj replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Yesterday here in Clifton it was the first day since April 10th that it was not overcast during the entire day! -
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
showmethesnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
For what it's worth the 00Z FV3 throws some tropical loving Florida's way. Area of disturbed weather around the Yucatan day 9'ish works its way up through the Caribbean and eventually has a minimal tropical system impacting the southern tip of Florida at the end of its run (Day 16). If correct it would probably be the first named system for the Atlantic (Andrea) with pressures of 993 mb and roughly 45 mph sustained winds at landfall. - Today
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SPC maintained MDT risk @ 06Z update. Mostly concerned about where/when initiation will occur, doesn’t appear to be any concern regarding storm mode or morning convection.
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This pattern seems to be more ENSO driven.Most analogs would show the Valley to be more into a dirty ridge with plenty of QPF'S as the MJO comes off phase 7, with lag time.Surely don't look like it.The MJO is fixing to really slow down by the looks before it gets into the IO and into the IO so we'll see what happens later on -
May 16-22 Severe Threats
Jackstraw replied to Tim from Springfield (IL)'s topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Right up our arse lol. Roughly east of 69 more towards the OH/IN line from this discussion... ...Lower Ohio Valley to Lower Michigan... A shortwave trough and an associated 70 to 80 kt mid-level jet will move northeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low is forecast to move from southern Wisconsin into northern Lower Michigan as a cold front advances eastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will advect northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In response, a corridor of instability is forecast to setup from western Kentucky northward into Lower Michigan by afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms appear likely to develop along the instability corridor around midday with this convection moving eastward across the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Additional storms may develop further north in Lower Michigan. A second round of convection, associated with the cold front, may move into the instability corridor during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis from Paducah northward to Detroit at 21Z show MLCAPE values reaching the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Lapse rates in the boundary layer are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear values should range from around 45 kt in western Kentucky to 65 kt in lower Michigan. This environment should be sufficient for severe multicells capable of producing wind damage. The wind damage threat would be greatest if a cold pool can organize. Although more conditional, isolated supercells with a potential for a brief tornado, large hail and wind damage will be possible in areas where instability becomes strongest and cells remain discrete. The wind damage threat should continue into the early evening across parts of the lower Ohio Valley as the cold front approaches from the west. -
With the wave trending slower and slower (wrt energy/lift ejecting into the warm sector), I see no reason to not expect discrete/semi-discrete modes to be prevalent and dominant (owing to ridiculous shear profiles throughout the entire column). As with almost any “big troughs,” the evolution of morning convection will be a question, but that’s not exactly the most profound question wrt a significant severe setup. With how these things (big time trough setups) have worked in the past, mixed modes with tornadic supercells and some messier clusters will probably exist across the warm sector/near the dryline/warm front. It is notable that it only takes one or two cyclic tornadic supercells to totally change the perspective of a setup (see Friday, 5/17). We don’t need, let’s say, 7 discrete tornadic supercells, for a higher-end risk to verify. Perhaps my biggest question for this setup is the evolution/location of the warm front. Pattern recognition (intense moisture advection, aided by a strong low-level jet throughout the entire day) would tell you that the warm front will lift north significantly, but models don’t show that, owing to potentially significant amounts of convection north of the front. Generally think it’ll lift a bit more north than currently shown, but that’s just a hunch. Generally it’s smart to trust NWP, but it hasn’t been the most stellar lately. ( for example see UH tracks/storm mode from Friday, and initiation south along the DL and sustainability thereafter). Next big question is the impact on supercell modes, and low-level mesocyclones of having a deep-moist layer extend to ~3km. Shear profiles would tell you that you shouldn’t have to worry about grungy supercells, but doubt that’ll be the case if moisture of that level verifies. Ground-scraping, grungy, fast moving high-precipitation supercells may be the result of all that. This, of course, would provide its own significant threat. Any tornadoes that form would likely tend to be shrouded by rain/ rain-wrapped well into the evening. Important to note that details will certainly change to some degree!
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah i'm with you,i don't have a great feeling about this summer.Even the MJO where it sits at right now we shouldn't be looking at any SER -
Cedar Rapids was in the prime spot this evening as the main wave lifted north through the region. I received 1.99" of rain this evening, making my daily total 2.16". Over the last couple days I've received 3.05". There is potential for more rounds of heavy rain next week.
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Whoops by SPC today https://mobile.twitter.com/jaredwsmith/status/1129944920385564673
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One of the tv stations in Okc
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It's still early to call boom or bust. The linear mode (especially up north) advertised on some models might be right. Remember in 2017 when a few of the high shear/high CAPE setups in May across Oklahoma failed to meet expectations? Just because there's substantial instability with strong wind shear does not equal a supercell tornado outbreak. That 5/18/17 tornado-driven high risk busted hard, especially when CAMs were in good agreement about messy storm modes. There was a moderate risk later in the month that was very junky from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. With that said, this event has a higher ceiling than most we've seen over the past 4-5 years across the Southern Plains. Aside from storm mode, I'd also be concerned about a mass of convection moving from the panhandles into Oklahoma during the morning. This is advertised on the GFS/Euro/RGEM and to a lesser extent, then 3km NAM. I have the most confidence in the dryline lighting up with a potentially significant tornado threat. The instability progs ahead of the dryline are pretty ridiculous, on the order of 3,000-4,000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating and that's across relatively high terrain, in the Lubbock-Midland-Fort Stockton zone. Speed shear is substantial and directional shear is good with plenty of veering with height. There is a southwesterly component to the upper level winds and although the angles with respect to the dryline probably won't be 90 degrees, it will still get things done with S to SE near-surface winds. The biggest question mark is up north, in my view, from the panhandles/northwest Texas into western/central Oklahoma. That's where the parameter space is maxed out, but where there could also be convective overturning earlier in the day. Another scenario is a reinforced boundary being left somewhere between the Texas panhandle and the Red River Valley from morning convection, but it's early to speculate where that might setup, if such a boundary does get laid down.
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It was mid-summer hot today, I already dread the rest of summer and am looking for that first big cold front of early fall. -
I doubt they go high, but it will be interesting to see what kind of day 2 tornado probabilities they put up.
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Not sure about Chicago, but Detroit saw scattered snow flurries on May 19, 2002. Needless to say it was the latest I have personally ever seen snow fall, Although more recently and probably more impressive were snow showers on May 15, 2016. Only a trace fell, however it was legit snow squalls unlike May 19, 2002 which were just a few flurries. Latest on record was May 31, 1910.
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Yes... thundering here and raining
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Plane just now headed into Andrews really low and fast. Thunderstorms around?
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In my honest opinion, what sets this apart from the 4/13 "bust" is a prominent focus for surface-based convective initiation: the dry line. If you had a surging dry line into eastern TX with favorable shear orientation, I imagine that day plays out much differently. Instead we didn't exactly have that and storms were initiating but not exactly well-rooted into the surface, nor organized. I think that is a key difference, and the CAMs across the board are depicting varying solutions that all kind of converge on a mixed-mode severe weather outbreak by/after 00z. Agree that a day 2 high is too much. But don't think a day one high is out of the question yet. Threat for supercells producing significant or violent tornadoes should carry well into dark with the strong theta e advection. Boundary layer stabilization should be offset some.
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May 16-22 Severe Threats
pen_artist replied to Tim from Springfield (IL)'s topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Anyone have particular thoughts on Tuesday's setup? In terms of intensity and areas to most watch our for -
Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats
Misstertwister replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
Is that low slowing down some slightly? Seems like some new thinking might have it lagging a little further west now and I-35 corridor more of a late evening threat or MCS -
Boy it was nice to get out in the woods today. Soil moisture is super high but there was surprisingly little mud after all the rain we've had the last 45 days.
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If we don't see any rain upcoming the next couple days we probably wont see much of anything until the week after next when the models are showing a trough going through East Asia in 3 to 4 days.The Euro has a ridge centered into the Valley around the latter part of next weekend maybe into the following week -
High-end event certainly appears to be evolving across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southern Kansas... Forecast soundings on both the GFS (and especially the NAM) are ludicrous across much of the warm sector... but for one, I’m not sure how much value I’d put into the NAM nest’s storm mode over the next two days tbh, It’s notorious for going insta-linear. It did so on Friday, and we saw how that went.
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FYI, the 00 UTC initialized CSU WRF is another model to look at, available here: http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/csuwrf_4km.php This is run with the GFS (rather than the NAM) as ICs and LBCs. Tonight's run should be available soon.
