Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Time to roll out a new thread for the upcoming storm. There are some key differences in how the energy coming out of the mid-west is handled. The GFS does not want to dig this as much as the Euro is doing hence the differences in the outcomes. Euro being a slightly warmer more interior threat and the GFS being a colder more widespread event. These details should be ironed out in the next 24-36 hours as we get into day 3-4 with the models. 12z runs will hopefully start to she d some light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Time to roll out a new thread for the upcoming storm. There are some key differences in how the energy coming out of the mid-west is handled. The GFS does not want to dig this as much as the Euro is doing hence the differences in the outcomes. Euro being a slightly warmer more interior threat and the GFS being a colder more widespread event. These details should be ironed out in the next 24-36 hours as we get into day 3-4 with the models. 12z runs will hopefully start to she d some light. A meeting in the middle would seem most likely and best overall for everyones BY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 -1F, nice snowpack...bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ullr will continue to provide for the faithful. Good luck to all. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 should be an interesting weekend. everything really hinges on how far south / west the energy dropping into the plains digs early in the week. the ggem and ec continue to drive it all the way to the northern GOM and really strengthen the southern portion of the two regions of vorticity in question, which allows it to close off very far southwest...you've essentially got a negatively tilted full lat trough at like 90W...blech. the result is LP developing in the gulf, becoming a water-loaded miller A but really wrapping up and tucking very far west (relatively speaking). i would say the ec ens look a bit like the op but they just don't dig as far (not too surprising given ens vs op). the gfs (and to some extent last night's UKMET run) just don't handle the energy this way. they swing it through but don't dig nearly as far south, and concurrently don't strengthen the vorticity max until later/further east. one side will/should give pretty soon. all the other details won't work out for several days but whether this is more of a interior or everyone threat should be known *somewhat* soon...in a relative sense. I had this in the other thread just before it closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What do you folks think about this part... ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP. Too cold and dry??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREFs look like the GFS...more of a miller B. Should be interesting to see what the 12z suite does with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What do you folks think about this part... ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP. Too cold and dry??? If the euro is right...the colder and drieir the better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The historic cold preceeding this event is also going to displace the marine layer farther out than where it normally would be, so there is going to be a lag between the onset of east winds and the advection inland of warmer temps. Good point, ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good point, ray. The author of the long term discussion at KBOX said that they are accepting the Euro version of the setup (deep digging of energy into the GOM) but then are discounting the Euro track and warmer solution that develops, presumably as a consequence of this. Guess there really is some uncertainty here. I fear that in the contest between the irresistible force (the GOM track with early phasing and negative tilt) and the immovable object (the Arctic HP), the latter loses a lot more than the former - but I'm a terrible pessimist and ignorant to boot....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What do you folks think about this part... ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP. Too cold and dry??? wall of snow...feb 6 1978. delayed but not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Awesome graphic from the Globe today. http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/graphics/01_21_11_boston_snowfall/?p1=News_links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well no question which way the nam is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well no question which way the nam is going. Looks like it might be a torching rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Why are we even paying attention to the NAM when we are 96 hours from event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEEPSTUFF Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like it might be a torching rainstorm Where's my dislike button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM looks like the 00z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like it might be a torching rainstorm But the ETA looks good! lol.... Lets see what the globals say, but to have the Nam move toward the Euro is cool I think. Nam can be overamped as we all know...perhaps it is our west warm amped outlier, the GFS is the east outlier and the Euro is right on target. Then it is a question of whether the synopics and teleconnections nudge the Euro colder/offshore or warmer/close to the coast. Pretty decent chance I win either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The trough axis seems awfully far west. The SREF's were much further east Looks like it might be a torching rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Why are we even paying attention to the NAM when we are 96 hours from event? because where the Nam is heading in the first 48 hours is very important...heading to Euro or heading to GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The trough axis seems awfully far west. The SREF's were much further east Yeah its even a tad further W than the Euro was...but similar. We'll see what happens on the rest of the 12z suite, but we definitely don't want to see the 12z NAM imitated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT has a nice write up on his site (wxrisk.com) regarding this storm. He basically says to disregard the GFS...this is an interior snow snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like it might be a torching rainstorm Yeah that's the opposite direction from what I was hoping to see. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I love this discussion. Unreal. Coming storm, another cold shot, +PNA and next shortwave diving down late week. I have highlighted a few things for your reading pleasure. Bid Winter Incoming Ongoing. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT OVER THE WEST WHERE AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY THU/D5 AND SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK AS RIDGING SURGES UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN ALASKA. FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST COAST WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT STRETCH OF RUNS WITH A FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE GEFS MEAN... BUT EVEN THE MEAN IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS WITH ONGOING CONTINUITY. BY WED/D4... THE 00Z UKMET POSITIONS THE LOW QUITE NICELY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER WEST BUT TRENDING A BIT TO THE EAST RECENTLY... AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAS BEEN EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST ALONG THE COAST IN RECENT RUNS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO AN INLAND RUNNER AND TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD ATLANTIC AIR TOWARD THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM MAKING FOR QUITE A MESS FROM I-81 EASTWARD... BUT THE FORECAST RAIN/SNOW LINE... AND PROBABLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AREA TOO... WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY SLOWLY BUT STEADILY. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AFTER SPILLING OVER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING. 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED STRONGER AS WELL. A BLEND OF BOTH SHOULD FIT THE BILL FOR NOW. END RESULT IS LIKELY YET ANOTHER COLD PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH. FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree with Phil, that I'm not entirely sold on the tasty solutions of the ensembles given this pattern may be something where the euro handles the synoptics better. However, the ensembles have been rather consistent for a day or so now...so that is something to take into account, esp the euro ensembles. I'd feel pretty good if I were Will and Pete..up through srn NH. I can see why they would be optimistic. The arctic airmass will help, but I hate retreating highs for my area....hate them. If we can get the vortmax to keep chugging east and stop digging and going negative tilt before New Orleans, then that would help out areas further east for sure...despite the retreating high. This high is still over 1030mb and had a nice ridging arc into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we want a more GFS solution ? West (Euro) would give us Precip issues no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 "The L/W lengths don't really offer much room for the GGEM type scenarios, particularly with the emerging -NAO in the time period drilling the escape latitude of the westerlies more under LI" The above was from TT's writeup . That GGEM solution is similar to the 0z EC and 12z NAM. Still don't know what to make of the ensembles all being east of the OPS (GFS aside) .ote name='ORH_wxman' timestamp='1295708030' post='336003'] Yeah its even a tad further W than the Euro was...but similar. We'll see what happens on the rest of the 12z suite, but we definitely don't want to see the 12z NAM imitated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we want a more GFS solution ? West (Euro) would give us Precip issues no? Depends where you live. For a good chunk of sne, we would want something farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The euro op is definitely on the sw edge of the spaghetti plots at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good point, ray. I can't stand this glitch in the configuration of the board that precludes the quoting of posts from closed threads; not sure why that is. Anyway, I can't even comprehend the ramifications of what I am leaning towards so I won't event say it. I'll just wait for a mainly rain event to derail that because climo should step in and intervene at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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