All Activity

That was what Desantis was suggesting. The general feeling here with those that I spoke with are considering moves to SC, NC, Ala and TN,

I agree. But the 30% area will likely need one from evolving qlcs. And hatched area will be needed further west for tornado threat near sfc low and large hail threat with initial discrete supercells.

Well then move to Miami. 115F HI

Seems like they are inching forward to have a huge economic shock in the aftermath of one strong storm hitting a huge population center. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

no

Clearing today is from clouds being pushed southwest good example how bottled up the atmosphere has been.

Up to 74 on a NE wind. More breaks in the clouds.

I knew the taxes were outrageous before buying, but moving from MD where they taxed retirement income made it a wash...until MD starting waiving taxes on retirement income after we left.

Make sure you get a pic of the only break in the clouds.

Looks like today is going to be the best day for the week. With winds out of the W/SW should be in the 70's in town. Yesterday, the Lake wind didn't relent, so stayed cool.

I agree, I trade my tail for my sister's claws. She [refers the tail, I prefer the claws.

Gotta get mine going soon

The 30% contour alone (doesn't need a hatched area) drives an "Enhanced" category; but pattern recognition alone (compact, negatively tilted shortwave, deepening surface low with rich moisture in the warm sector) suggests this event will be capable of producing significant severe weather of some type, perhaps widespread.

The Atlantic is a "stratus cloud"-producing force of nature.

Plantin and tannin ‘ AWT

I'm not sure if these maps are the stuff low 90s are really made of in this pattern which has only slightly and temporarily changed. But I could see borderline heat in the 86-91 degree range across the region each day. And maybe Central Park just barely touches 90 one or two of the days. I could see that, especially Wednesday. WX/PT

Insurance is the big issue for people down here right now. It is all we are hearing about as we visit family. All but one were dropped by their carrier and had to switch to Citizens which is the insurer of last resort re: your wallet is not going to be happy. We have friends in Sarasota whose insurance is over 25K a year including the wind damage option...and their house is under 2000K sq feet. Lots of people, who do not have a mortgage, are chancing it with no insurance. It is forcing retirees to leave Florida. It snows in Jax about every 3-5 years for non accum! Accum is more rare. That may be more than Lanco had last year :-). Insurance is making some move to their cars which is crazy. 'Pay it, or roll the dice': Florida residents bunk in their cars as home insurance costs cripple people's finances (msn.com)

We were just searching for houses in Hanover 5 years ago and in our price range the highest taxes we saw were under 4K. This was the homestead price or whatever that is called in PA. I did see 6K taxes next to Tamaqua in Hometown. We were told it was due to the low density of people in the area so everyone had to make up the difference. Maybe we did not see any in your zip code/district. But having all real estate and school taxes under 3K was a requirement of our searching.

Is 4 months of 90s not enough?

Also, why is a solid -NAO like 2010-11 even being given serious consideration based on its rarity in winter since 1979-80?

Ended up yesterday with .99". Nice and cool today. Had to wear a jacket this morning as the wind made it feel even colder than the 60 on the thermometer. Currently at 11:40 am it is only 63.

The only issues (2) that I have synoptically with 10-11 is the current solar state and the *possible* upcoming Modoki configuration of this La Niña….

For starters, I think we can throw out 2010-11 as 2010-11 is not a valid analog because it had a very strong -NAO in Dec and Jan. Also, I agree we can throw out 2020-21 because it also had a -NAO. There’s no good reason based on what we know now as well as what long range models are showing to think that there will be anything even close to a strong -NAO next winter. Moreover, -NAO winters have been few and far between since 1979-80. Only 13% of them since then have had a -NAO averaged out over DJF: 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2020-1. All 6 were within two years of a sunspot cycle minimum and had avg sunspot numbers under 35. Next winter will be active with much higher than 35. Coincidence? I don’t know but I maintain that the chances of a solid -NAO next winter similar to DJ of 2010-11 are very low based on the last 45 winters.

We hope

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition. I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest). 1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate. This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list. I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89. My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.