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JFK must be even cooler

Mine is really not there either but cannot risk hoping to get it in tomorrow so lowering to 2.5" and doing a slightly wet cut today.

My current plan is to execute mow #4 on Thursday, as my grass simply isn't there for a mow this evening. I need to get some sort of herbicide or something to kill these damned dandelions that shoot up every two days, though.

Not record, * as in seems warm lately compared to other spots. On srly flow you'd think CEF to FIT etc would be warmer.

Off to a fairly active start this year (seems like it anyways). See if we can continue that for another month or so before the Plains season typically begins to level down a bit.

Actually just had a brief shower but first time of the year it felt like a warm rain if that makes any sense. Big drops, no super chilly wet-bulb drop.

Summer!

BDL close to getting an *.

Some models have warmed on this month’s runs while some others have cooled. The May UKMET for Aug/Sep rose substantially from April’s ~-1.35 to -1.00 for Nino 3.4. The implied RONI would be a good bit cooler. UKMET and JMA did very well last year.

Warm one. We roastin.

So close to the first 80 of the year. Should be able to do it this afternoon. Nice the dew points are comfortable.

07-08 was garbage here with endless SWFEs that were awesome for I-90 and sleet to rain here. If that’s the “ceiling” even with the high ACE it’ll be the earliest slam the blinds shut in history. This official Nina or Nina background state with the boiling W PAC that fuels the PAC jet on steroids has to end before us south of I-90 have a shot at a good winter again. This state that started up in 18-19, other than the 20-21 rabbit out of a hat good winter makes that clear as day to me.

Reminds me of 2022-2023.

23/13/4

If that clearing in radar continues on its current pace (as modeled) Mow #4 is in the offing.

Euro

The NWS has also quietly changed the frost and freeze criteria. All of those frost and freeze advisories and warnings that were near constant through April [and have been common in recent years] would NOT have been issued in past decades because the growing season was not considered to have begun by that point in these areas. A lot of NWS offices now just use the amorphous phrase "during the growing season" but there is still some residual evidence of the traditional criteria. You see all the frost and freeze warnings, and think "wow, it must be cold this spring. Never seen so many frost warnings." BUT that's because these events would have all been unwarned in the past. Here's the traditional criteria for some NWS offices: CTP The traditional growing season [and issuance of frost/freeze products] does not start until May 21 in the northwest mountains and would have just begun May 11 in the second tier of counties. There were numerous frost/freeze products issued in April in these areas. IWX Source: Northern Indiana Watch, Warning and Advisory Criteria (weather.gov) Note - issued only between May 1 and October 20, yet these products were issued numerous times by IWX this April.

This is the closest I've come so far to re-creating what the Canadian has for the winter. It's too cold in the Atlantic, but I'd give it a B+/A- as a match globally. It's not a particularly interesting winter, but it does seem to have some resemblance to how the Spring has gone. The La Nina will be coldest to the east though Sept/Oct before rapidly moving West if this is the right idea.

You can tell there is definitely some sort of potential pattern change towards the end of the month. Doesn't necessarily mean there will be a direct impact or correlation to our region, but there is an upward/increasing trend to at least start building heat into the southern states. I loved how in your earlier posts you outlined 850 temperatures. Often times, we focus too much on the H5 look and (focusing on summer months here) and we presume that no major ridge in the East signal means no heat - that isn't true. I feel like many of our bigger heat patterns (especially the more active ones with convection) occur when we have a strong ridge in the lower-levels with less ridging in the mid-levels and more of a trough signal. This helps to transport the airmass from the Southwest or southern Plains into our region and increases the likelihood of this airmass keeping it's integrity - and we see this by advection of EML plumes.

Most of this is not due to any sort of "strange disconnect" but due to people's perception of what is normal being warped. It used to be perfectly normal for Lake Erie to be covered in ice (or at least substantial ice coverage) at Buffalo, New York, well into May. This year, the water temperature is 52F, one shy of the record for the date set in 2012 & 2000. Source: Lake Erie May Temperatures Buffalo (weather.gov) Just scanning through this, you can see ice [as signified by underlying water at the freezing point] was present through at least May 10, 1928; May 1, 1930; May 16, 1936; May 6, 1939; May 10, 1940; May 12, 1943; May 15, 1947 [thermometer appears to be reading 1F warm this year]; May 9, 1959; May 11, 1963; May 12, 1965; May 23, 1971; May 2, 1972; May 12, 1978; May 7, 1982; May 2, 1996; and May 1, 2014. In this data, we can see the first shift to a new climate regime following the 1982-1983 Super El Nino event. While prior to that El Nino event, ice was commonplace in the month of May, it is now exceptionally rare. Ice past the middle of May, as occurred in 1936 & 1971, is almost unfathomable today. I mean 2014 was regarded as exceptionally cold, but came nowhere near reproducing that effect. We can substantial ice was present on the east end of Lake Erie deep into May 1936, while some icebergs remained through May 31, 1936. This during the so-called hottest summer on record. Funny how we're told how hot it was in the 1930s & 1940s, yet that heat doesn't show up in water.

Love seeing the dandelion appreciation.

Honestly, though.....A near record ACE seems to be the only way out of another torpedo DM period, and even then....maybe just servicable. 1998 was pretty active in terms of ACE and it still sucked. I imagine the ceiling could be something like a 2007-2008 outcome, where there is an ample reservoir of cold over eastern Canada via an elongated PV, but there is a sharp gradient due to a se ridge adjoining.

Just pick another death-knell for the northeast and play it safe-

Last 4 days before last night. 46,43,47,45. Airport readings. My house was down to 40 three of those days. Cold when you take the dog out at 6:00 am.