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You shouldn't be surprised.

Excellent trends on the 06z NAM. The upper levels show digging into the Missouri bootheel and NE Arkansas at 75 where it was east of the Mississippi at 0z. 84 land shows the beginnings of a lee side low behind the main one which is 250 miles ENE off the space coast (lol). RGEM holds serve mostly. It's been a minute since looking but the surface pressure gradient seemed slightly less positive tilt and overall org a bit smudgier. Cold might be a little punchier if the 500mb level translates.

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though.

RRFS A , still snowing at the end of this.

Seeing all that snow just next door south of us makes me think we're definitely still in the game. Like PSU said, we just want that to trend north at game time. If that snow was to the east of us instead of south, this thing is DOA.

If 06z Euro brings it NW, you're going to see the mother of all Bi-Polar mood swings on here.

BTW, 0Z euro kept most at or below freezing until Feb 7.

Seeing that snowhole from DC to NYC while VA and NC get a blizzard is heartbreaking though. Thats how we roll here.

Pretty dang consistent all things considered

GFS folded. Shocker. I think its time to put this one to bed for areas along I-95. Sorry.

-6 degrees…yep it’s cold. One thing about this snow, my yard looks just as good as my neighbors yard.

Very true. I need sleep lol

5 run trend of GFS

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm

Models are in pretty good agreement with regards to the ULL energy diving a precip maxima from ETN down into SC/NC. The main question continues to be the coastal. ON euro/gfs/nam our starting ratios are 15:1 and peak at 24:1 toward the end of the event. It won't take much qpf at all. .5 qpf at 15:1 is 7.5"

Unlikely for this to offer a good surprise for the forum, but I'd wait to see if the energy from the kicker winds up more strung out and further WNW. Very curious to see the 500mb depictions at 12z and 00z. Im not buying the low closing off down in Georgia. Regardless, fun one to track.

WB 6Z GFS says Sunday will at least be windy and frigid.

Weather Next 00z has the .25-.50 line back to my area with .50 creeping into NE Tn. The 18z crapped out and never finished. That is a big improvement west over 12z yesterday, which barely had the .25-.50 in far NE Tn.

GFS OTS but what is that piece of energy coming in from Quebec.. its looks like it originated from the North Atlantic

agree, not off to a good start. there's literally nothing pointing to this making the turn northwest.

Rather localized and uncertain on extent of impact. Potential exists, but I’m not seeing a bonafide signal for robust stationary S/SW lake response. We shall see as it becomes more immediate. Much less enthusiastic about inland push of significance than LOT seems to be. But I’m not a met for good reason

The AI GFS QPF totals, .14 in Nashville, with generally 17:1 to 20:1 ratios. .20 the next tier of counties eastward, trailing SE towards Chattanooga. Around .30 in Cookeville to McMinn Co. .40 in counties along the 75 corridor from my area down to Knoxville. .5 around Morristown. .5 to .7 along the NC border areas into SW VA. The DGZ in nearly to the surface with -12c being around 2400 feet and high humidity from there to 700mb.

Well it was fun tracking but this one is done.

Yeaaaaa this one ain’t for us. You would need the mother load of drastic shifts to occur almost every single run with 0 steps backward from here on out after another GFS whiff. Lots of winter to go