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SPC has a green check mark day 1 marginal risk out today just for 5% damaging winds .
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Not even fall yet, and 2021 was pretty warm so we'll see.
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Warmest fall on record looks likely
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’d love this combination for the SE US! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now -
I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Line up well: -
I know youre likely exaggerating, but I have friends in the UK and I can guarantee Chicago will have a colder/snowier winter than London.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me. -
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Winter Wizard replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Record warmth now covers most of the Gulf. northern Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Atlantic. Wouldn't take much for a spin-up to occur in a prime spot with the right steering flow to put parts of the US in danger over the coming weeks. I do worry that the narrative of "record low" activity (which is true) is going to cause people to let their guards down. @GaWxshowed proof of that. Additionally, if this combo does not occur in 2026, then that becomes extra concerning for 2027, especially if there is a flip back to a cool ENSO state. -
November 19th
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0.01” here for September, hopefully this weekend produces
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
forkyfork replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
in a few years the definition of torch will be +20 -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
Torch Tiger replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
your avg. is like 73. +10+ is torchy - Today
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
BrianW replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Yeah. I set my t-stat to 68 cool from pretty much April to October. This is what my central air usage looks like just about every year. -
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sometime in 2027
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
Typhoon Tip replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
i think that's in AMS' official glossary, yeah... 5 = torch
