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In general Ninos with blocking have a less active NS, but not always. We saw a case recently where the blocking was underwhelming in reality, despite what the models persistently advertised.

Me either, but growing up in the 80s, weed wasn't what we called dope...

Welcome, don't be afraid to ask questions. And remember, in the end, it's just frozen water.

It has compacted so much here hard to tell. I'm right by Alta and saw a 6in report there. I did just notice that cutoff for that was just before 5. We still had some more snow after then. Not much but some. Definitely curious to see an updated map once more totals come in. But still guessing there will be lower totals in this area. We didn't get much from overnight and snow this morning was not of good quality. Wasn't till banding moved in and finally got some bigger flakes.

NAM is pretty much snowless for SNE lol

Yeah, the more I looked at them, the more I can see the precip type might actually not be an issue with this one for a change. As of now. GFS looks like it backed off of that too. I'll take a lighter event all snow over a potentially heavier event, but you're sweating it out about the warm air pushing in. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

Lfg

Not sure I believe you, NAM.

If you want a trip down memory lane, page 99 of the subforum is Boxing Day.

That map will change significantly. 6” report in BMI and 7.7” near PIA.

Oh wow I knew it was the norm but I didn't know it was THAT rare. So even in some non-Modoki ninos it's still present, huh?

9 in Naperville

In my email exchange with NWS DLH, they said they have 18:1 there. This stuff is very light, and coming heavy still.

At 2” here. 6-8” is the forecast. Gonna need some serious rates to finish this.

Well, this storm will give us a heads up on which model(s) to give a modicum of trust, if any, as we go into the winter season.

Careful, this is composite reflectivity. We still have some very dry air near the surface that will evaporate the vast majority of this. Gonna be one of those donut hole on radar things.

Started flatter but ended up about the same

NAM bombs so much it as a bit of a reach around ending.

guessing its probably 18z tomorrow when NAM starts to tame down.

Kevin gets dry slotted though most of QPF probably done

Goes over BOS to Cape Ann. Congrats PF.

Nam still Super amped.

Coming in ever so slightly flatter so far.

Never tried that one. I need to.

As of right now every piece of model guidance has a general 4-7" from E PA/Sussex into Orange and through Putnam/Dutchess. The exception being the NAM.