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CMC still has it tucked off the Chesapeake too. There’s little chance it’s going to happen like this but not sure I’m total Debbie Downer about it.

1. This was never your storm. 2. points to your south aren’t forecast to get more than you.

AI appears to be locking in on a 1-3 inch event in the western burbs, 2-4 west of '95, and generally 3-6 north and east of DC with localized amounts near 10 closer to the shore.

Does coming out of the event with less snow OTG than before it count as something?

At 69hrs, slp is further west on the NC coast than 0z fwiw.

ICON and EUROAI are bleh

Fixed

The euro looks better at h5 than 00z

Glad I'm not doing some extended hike this weekend where my life depends on the forecast. It's Thursday and I'd be planning for either a dangerous blizzard or partly cloudy and 43 degrees. That's a huge difference and kinda funny with all of our fancy technology. Nature doesn't care about our technology at all. 26 years after 1/25/20 and nothing has changed imo. We still just need to look se and watch for the wall of snow.

Looks like Jan 22...lovely.

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own.

Did anybody get anything?

Looks good up here

Yea this storm is on life support and gfs will be retired soon No good trends from the other models

Still has the inverted trough. I'd guess operational will have it again too.

Ai is going to be east

WB 6Z EURO AI about the same as 0Z.

I do not understand how in 2026 things are like this..

Honestly, snapshot this moment. It’s perfectly indicative of how bad the models have been this winter, especially in the mid range. How can you base any forecast off of anything right now?

That's also just a product of the poor airmass we have ahead of the system. It wouldn't shock me if places started as rain, especially along the coast, before the system gets wound up. Assuming this system does impact, of course.

Then there's the Icon. See any resemblance? Better not be right.

WB GEFS 50th and 90 percentile total snowfall.

Looks like a few inches to a lot of zr . Then a norlun flips back to accumulating snow overnight into Saturday. My kind of storm

Oh, it was sarcasm. Couched in some anticipation that it might be banded in nature if this is LBSW and expanding as it gets here. Honestly I’d be happy but also disappointed for my own experience and ready for warmth, easy commutes, and running around with the kids. I think that’s part of the reality and fun on the hobbyist side.

just updated it, replaced the image on the previous page