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So I can expect tornadoes or snownadoes still?

What happened to @LibertyBell? Has he posted recently?

we still have euro ai on our side pretty big hit!

Ya think? Lol

14 for my low and wonder if any records got set. i think ive had some winters where i never got to 14 for the entire winter

Even the Euro aloft might argue for more QPF being wrung out a bit further inland...not an uncommon model bias for all guidance in keeping thew QPF too close to the low-level thermal gradient. It's why I think that run was pretty good for SE MA despite most QPF being centered over Cape/Islands. But yeah, that could get juicy pretty quickly if you displaced the PV lobe even 75-100 miles west.

psssst.....360 hours is not at range

12 Euro gives us light snow with light accumulations Sunday morning. Still several days away, so who the heck knows at this point.

We desperately need the ridge and blocking to link up. And while I haven't totally given up on winter, I'm becoming less optimistic each day.

After a big drop yesterday of 7%, natural gas prices are again sharply lower today (down 5% for a 2 day total of 12%) on warmer E US prospects for at least late this month. It’s very rare for NG to drop that much in early winter with cold looking to dominate for the foreseeable future, which as we know is not at all the case after about a week of intense E US cold per model consensus. Week one’s intense cold is already built into the price. It’s usually changes in prospects for week 2 into early week 3 that drive daily changes in NG prices.

12Z GFS could not possibly look any worse lmfao

Huge swing between 0Z EURO and 12Z EURO at range. Christmas weather still TBD.

Guys wait we can't sulk up the northern sub gangs thread. This is your moment enjoy it guys

Yep, trying to ignore that for now and enjoy the next 5-7 days. Hopefully WI/MI can cash in on the event later today and tomorrow.

Temps around here appear to be on pace to bust low. HRRR this morning showed close to 40° today but sitting at 27° still in Lebanon. .

Looks like tomorrow and especially tomorrow night out here on the Allegheny Front will be interesting. We've just been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

2 times now is been in the teens so far this December. 16 Friday morning and about 17 this morning. Surrounded by water with no wind, that's very very impressive for it only being beginning of December here on the island at the end..

That's a girthy shaft for DC..

Wait till we lay another 10" the next five days and then it torches till Christmas

River ice gone. Geese taking a swim. Hopefully more fun with ice to come this winter.

Don't forget to divide by 6

If we lose more than 2-3 inches, it will be very frustrating after such a good start to the season. There's so little margin of error here for maintaining appreciable snow cover...even 12-18 hours of milder temps can do a lot of damage. The new wrinkle this season has been melting from below due to warm soil temps. Heaven forbid you try to build a snowpack early in the season...

Thanks for the comments. I do think we will get our turn down here in January or early February.

1. Where’s “Star” located? 2. No index ever even comes close to guaranteeing anything. That’s nothing new to us. 3, However: The period Dec 3-17, which is prior to the days his maps are showing, is currently looking to end up much colder than normal in the majority of the E US, including a top 3-5 coldest of the last 50 years in many places. That would jibe well with phase 8’s cold E US tendency.