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I’m surprised that miserable Will hadn’t posted the icon

6:30 am

We wait

The ens mean looks more sensible- has the most snow in the climo favored areas

Recent paper has good discussion on: our climate trajectory, the tipping point concept, how close we are getting to tipping points, and the scientific uncertainty. https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(25)00391-4

Any update on 6z EURO?

I was just thinking this. Absurd to think that it’s advertising this extreme of an event and it’s going to be dead wrong. And we’re close to the event.

Did anything else trend better overnight? Looks like the ai euro did.

For once, we need a forum wide pleaser. Maybe too much to ask

Showing 20-30” southeast of philly LOL

That would be better for the western weenies

In a few years maybe all the physics based models will be, other than short range hi res.

Early March May have a more viable threat lol

That would be a huge sad face.

My expectation is that the GFS caves to EURO at some point but it pulled a really classic lose storm and bring it back for this one

If a model is this wrong 72 hours out it should probably be retired

Could be rain in a few runs

GFS man is so close to being an absolute nuke for all it remains consistent with a 6-12in storm from LV to Philly and BOMB in NJ.

Gotta deal with reality- I have to drive 30 mins to work to teach a class that's starts on Monday morning- all the students will be there already. In cases like this in the past I get a room and stay there ahead of the event. Lets see what the Euro does today- its not perfect but more times than not is has the 'more correct' idea.

6z GFS AI slightly west of 12z but just brushes eastern areas

10PM would be fun

Came n/w got better for most. Legit 50-100 miles away from an area wide blizzard