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In an attempt to break the cycle of nostalgia posting (which I am very guilty of..), the 12z AI GFS looks interesting for that early March window. 2-wave system, looks like it drops 0.6-1" QPF over the course of both of those waves. Subfreezing the whole time, though no idea about 850s.

This is why although noreaster's are fun, it's often feast or famine and many are left disappointed. MegaSWFEs like we had in JAN are our best events because it was snow all the way to Canada, with nice consistent accumulations. They also seem to stack dendrites better over a huge area, and often are longer duration.

We surely are like minded.

Halls as in Halls where I live? .

Very annoyed with myself because that was a glaring signal on all guidance...extremely glaring signal but for some reason I didn't want to buy it and buy into exactly how bad the potential for subsidence would be in the valley. The signals were all right there, laid out right there and just totally overlooked. Great stuff on the differences in alignment regarding 850mb fronto and 700mb fronto and what happens when the two become stacked. Moving forward I am going to give stronger attention to this. Anytime there are situations where models are big with the 700mb fronto, I've disregarded what's happening at 850 in terms of fronto. I wonder if this stuff would be covered in my course this week focusing on isentropic analysis. The other challenging part when dealing with the potential for subsidence zone(s) is how to portray that on a snowfall forecast map without making the map look stupid (Speaking for myself here). I guess maybe one way to do this is don't go crazy with the ranges and then add some text or an outline indicating where max totals may be. It's much easier to highlight max zone versus min zone I think anyways

I agree and thought the same last week. Cloudy has been king, and when there is snow cover, that makes me giddy for pack retention. It's nice to see the sun today, but hope we get a couple more whacks at winter before spring peeps start peepin.

Yes I wasn't around for '78 but in talking with some work colleagues of a certain age this morning the big difference was the crushing up north of Providence to Worcester back then, with Woonsocket around the jackpot zone. The impacts were also exacerbated by the surprise arrival, so it took over a week to clean up due to all the abandoned cars amongst other infrastructure difficulties. For sure this takes the cake as far as SE MA is concerned which had 16-20 inches in '78 based on the old accumulation maps I found. The firehose in '78 settled from the north shore through the western Boston suburbs through extreme northern RI over to around Putnam CT. This time it was about the same shape but starting from the south shore instead.

@CPcantmeasuresnowI'm looking around a bit now, it might have been part of the NWS NOWdata under Montgomery but its not there now. I remember when I came across it I was surprised and again took it with a grain of salt. I must have found it a few years ago again because I just came across this little spreadsheet I did 10 years ago that shows the 30 year average (KMGJ)which was higher than it is now, 43.3" then and 42.2" now. The 10 year averages were my own measurments.

Yeah that one is all over the place, leaning scrape… you?

WB 12Z GFS: cut this at least in half since it is falling in the afternoon.

The Thursday nite/ Friday one is the one that may trend north

1.9" of snow with that band in just over 2 hrs. A little refresher for the snowpack

hey Tony, how many inches of snow has central park received in 2025-2026 winter

Basically every other modern A+ winter illustrates how rare 09-10 was. 95-96's 2nd biggest snowfall at DCA was 8.4". In 02-03 it was 6.6". In 13-14 it was 7.0". In 09-10.. A snowfall of 10.8 inches was the 3rd largest snowfall of the winter.

At the risk of starting a memory lane posting spree...yes. And in particular, for me, the period BETWEEN the two storms, when we knew the second one was coming, too...it was all just unbelievably exciting and amazing! @bncho I hope you and other younger folks get to experience something like that winter.

Really need something like the RRFS (both the standard and the MPAS) look but south a bit to get much of a win south of the M/D. So I’m not optimistic given my massive skepticism of them at this range! But at least it seems like we’re not trending even more POS squashed at 12z.

You had 16"? I didn't measure as frequently as you. I only did so around dawn and at the end.

Snow is melting beautifully

18 Branford

Still can't get any consistency on guidance on Thursday PM, all over the place from a complete miss to a graze to 3-6"

I wouldn't be surprised if post analysis counts it for Storm Data anyway. Some of it is a bit subjective, but if DAW, PSM, and PWM all hit blizzard up here how could I say coastal York wasn't also a blizzard.

The Feb 5-6 and 9-10 storms being back to back is simply mythological, it's astounding that any sort of pattern could enable 2 big dog storms not even 4 full days apart at our latitude. That being on top of an almost as-rare December HECS and the already regionwide 28"+ winter totals is the stuff of weenie lore. I don't care if we get a winter that rivals 13-14 in totals but with snowpack on the ground from December to St. Patrick's Day. If it doesn't have at least 3 big dog storms, it's not topping 09-10.

Looks way south that's not coming up here, just noting another wave, there's a wave almost everyday traversing the east on guidance.

Thursday’s storm keeps trending towards a miss. I’ll have to enjoy the inch or so I get tonight, even if the sun angle causes it to melt immediately tomorrow.

Don't get me wrong the pattern was perfect. We timed up an extremely perfect AO/NAO with a moderate basin wide Nino which is our perfect STJ configuration for elevated chances at HECS level storms. That right there is the prerequisite we needed to even have a chance at that. But then it also took good luck yes. Put it this way...the pattern was so good that it produced 5 HECS level events somewhere in the east that winter. That was the pattern not luck. BUT...Baltimore got flush hit by 3 of the 5 and a pretty good SECS level snowfall from 1 of the other 2. Out of the 5 huge snowstorms that affect the east coast that winter only 1 missed Baltimore and 3 were flush hit bullseyes! That is good luck. That is us scoring way above our average hit rate. With bad luck maybe we only get 1 of those to hit... average luck maybe 2, getting 3 flush hits was very good luck on top of the perfect pattern. We also got flush hit with some weaker waves, a clipper that put down 2-3" and that little thing in early Feb that gave us 3-6". Perfect pattern plus good luck and...most snow ever.