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  2. jm1220
    About 0.25”.
  3. EasternLI
    Granted this is from the July run. But the Jamstec wasn't far off from a CFS or Cansips situation either. Will be interesting to see when it updates. Although, I'm on the same page with bluewave on these seasonal model runs. They're geared towards enso more than anything else. That's where they hold the most skill. So you often see straight enso composites from them the further you go out in time and they can miss things in the mid latitudes. They're simply not tuned for that. Interesting to see some of these solutions regardless.
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  5. King James
    Big towers going up south and east of me with peaks of sun. Skies to the north and west a blanket of gray
  6. dendrite
    I’m already sick of winter and ready for spring 2027.
  7. JakkelWx
    closest strike in years. about a half hour ago. 0.5+" so far. it had to be 500 feet away
  8. LongRanger
    30 mph peak gust and 0.6" though it would look better as 6+ inches of drifting snow
  9. Intensewind002
    Nice shelf cloud here, the storm itself was pretty mediocre though
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  11. MarcmmKU
    NOAA is sold on the heat coming back latter third of August. Thankfully climo starts fighting back hard around then. Usually the time of year with sharpest temp drops.
  12. LakePaste25
    I’ve been stressing that here nonstop (along with a few others) and even snowman agreed with me to some extent. If people are getting triggered over that, it’s mostly happening outside of this thread.
  13. BlizzardNole
    Nice flush hit here with lightning, 40-50 mph gusts and 0.9"
  14. dendrite
    Yeah there’s been some light smoke and haze aloft the past few days.
  15. dendrite
    Snow weenies gone wild on social media. Everyone slapping their BBCs (big blue contours) over record snow and cold. Hopefully dews and warmth all winter with el nino grande.
  16. nvck
    Expired the watch two hours early amidst totally blue skies.
  17. GaWx
    This OISST relative 3.4 anomaly graph shows a rapid warming the prior 48 hours of ~0.2C.
  18. Snowedin
    Anyone noticing the sun and sky look a little off today? I’m betting we’re getting a little smoke or haze mixed in with this airmass from the west. It’s kind of reminding me of what we had in mid July but to a much lesser extent.
  19. CAPE
    0.35" Wasn't expecting anything today, and the last 2 days all the action frustratingly went just to the north. So better than nothing.
  20. King James started following Severe Weather 8/10 - 8/13
  21. winterwarlock
    Defintely seemed like smoke was sn issue in my parts
  22. winterwarlock
    Well no heatwave for me...another 89 oh well Glad to see both lines of storms miss Lets keep the dry streak going
  23. mob1
    Decent storm here earlier with solid winds (albeit not at severe level) and heavy rain. Recent rains have done wonders to my lawn, which up to about 10 days ago looked like the Sahara desert.
  24. Mrs.J
    .42” today. This Summer has been much more wetter than the previous two ones. Grass is looking good and not crunchy this year.
  25. michsnowfreak
    Of course its reasonable. I haven't seen anyone say or imply otherwise for the GL/NE. However, the discussion that... it probably wont be record warm or a wall to wall torch, and that there isnt a linear correlation of the stronger the nino to the warmer the winter...is very triggering for some.
  26. donsutherland1
    A few showers or thundershowers are possible this evening and early tonight. Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Above normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday or Thursday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +2.00 today. That ended the 91-day streak during which the SOI was negative. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.138 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  27. VivaManchVegas
    Down with that. Torch in September and October, nothing like July. Usually short lived but enjoyable.
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