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Well, this is not how I wanted things to go. Sucks you can't depend on the models outside 3 days. Even the king Euro went from a foot of snow to freezing rain in less than a day.

Yes. GFS is another notch in the right direction. Mixing issues staying far away on that run. Definitely not negatively tilted, but the energy is more out in front of the trough sweeping in behind it. Thats a good spot to be I think

Didn't see this posted. A bump up from 07Z. Their snowfall seems much higher than any model (at least at 10:1, so their "model ratio looks to be 15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF), which is unusual. I don't care if some of this near the end is really sleet - this would be amazing.

The thermal boundary quickly collapses back south as the coastal takes over on the GFS. That run was pretty close to perfect for 95 NW in terms of track and speed.

The trolling shtick got old a decade ago....

How long?

GFS is a great run, longer duration too as you leave a bit of energy trailing. You get the southern energy to ride up along the baroclinic zone with PVA pointed across the region, and then the central Plains trough swings through. 24-30 hour event for many. A widespread 12-20" from DC to Boston hasn't happened in quite some time.

It's difficult but I am going to refrain from taking this GFS run this seriously right now. If the Euro still holds or doesn't amplify quite as much as its 6Z, then it's cause to relax a bit. The GFS has been a mess so far.

I made a tiny little thread for the tiny little threat for this evening, so as not to clutter up this main thread. It's gonna get wild in this main one!

Could be timing but the CMC appears to coming in a little south of 0z.

Yep, this is what we want to continue to trend toward. Maybe throw in a stall off OCMD for fun.

Solid long duration 8-12

12z gfs totals. I don't have the sleet totals. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

A run for the archives

Wait, so a surface low off the gulf and off the coast per GFS? How common is that? Man, this looks complicated. No wonder for the yoyo results.

We are in the GFS wheel house now, right?

That was a pretty big shift north on the 12z GFS seeing it was an outlier south.

You can see in the 96 to 102 panel a couple pages back the transfer is starting

1-3" as per some of the mesos for a limited number of SNE/CNE people I figured I would break it out so as not to clutter the main thread

Yea probably realistically, GFS is a thing of beauty everywhere, 12-18 inches DC to Boston.