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can we start a thread for next week's storm? those of us in Alabama have moved on

But more seriously guidance seems like it will indeed be like Randy Johnson…

Took a melatonin and went to sleep at 930 last night. Still woke up before freaking 4am and started worrying about the MFing 0z euro. Went back to sleep for another hour at least after an hour of imagining digital sleet.

Well isn't that thing a real storm and this is just epic overrunning? I know there is to be a secondary reflection for eastern areas but the atmosphere is kind of primed for more good snow by then anyway

Currently between Pittsburgh and Morgantown.

Jordan Romano

I feel like I should know this, but what's the difference?

Who is this "we" shit? You french? I'm ready to watch sleet drifts and build sleetmen and make Rum slurpees from sleet.

Yeah if its like this one it'll happen middle of the following week. I'm just bummed because I was supposed to go see Spamalot in Charlotte on Sunday and now it's been canceled/rescheduled to next Tuesday which ain't happening. :/

Hrrr has it in the low-mid teens by midnight. About 15F drop in 3 hours around 23-02z

Call looking good

Based on uptons point and clicks it seems they think sleet line makes it up to about the cross country parkway. Doesn't really matter anyway since everyone is getting 10+ to the ocean per upton.

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

Well these NAM 3K soundings are not the governing voice of the forecast, so you are free to form your own opinion.

Just need the Feb torch to hold out until the 2H of the month after my UP trip

Honestly? I took a bit of a step back from tracking weather. Too many rug pulls, let myself just enjoy it when the storms hit haha. Plus honestly, the weather has not been that exciting. Plus, work and personal life stuff and a bit of a health scare. But hey. Look at me now. I'm back here vibing. Hope the family is doing well!

It better be bringing the goods like Randy Johnson

Milwaukee on possible lake effect If the meso vort over the southern basin advects a few lake effect snow bands toward the western coast, there will be a chance for a couple inches of snow when everything is all said and done. This would then be multiple hours of LES and lake enhancement. Southeastern Wisconsin including, Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and maybe eastern Waukesha are the mostly likely areas to be impacted by any LES or lake enhanced snow. This area is fairly broad, but there is uncertainty on how far inland this would move. Now the caveat that comes with any LES system, will it or will it not move inland. In the event that this all stays off shore this AFD will be for naught as we may get a dusting from the shortwave trough. On the other hand if the worse happens and we get multiple LES bands moving inland, then there could be some decent snow totals. A real hit or bust forecast.

Lol...accidentally hit the wrong time hour looking on this current setup and about fell out of my chair....then realized it wasn't a certain year in the 1990's

Absolutely. We were doing a comp.over in the mid atl sub the other day between the 2 storms. Very similar structurally.

Believe it or not, just N of Philly was the "line" back in the day. Sometimes it panned out, sometimes it didn't. Now it never pans out. If Philly turns over so am I about a hour later. But I78 was never "the line". Hell, when I was young I wouldn't know where the Fvck I78 was located. Probably would have asked my Mother or Father...

That's at the earliest at that...

Definitely toned down though

Think we’re looking good for a foot Justin good 45 miles NW of Philly.

Yeah that's what I'm telling people as well. I want to see the nam hold through tomorrow before I'll be more confident in double digits. There's still time for the dreaded last minute northerly shift