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Cover your ears, don't get pulled into that siren song that is 70s in March. Get yourself together, your melting like the Bruins with a 3-0 lead!

^Do you know if there are circuit breakers on the trading of Oil? Sometimes they will only let it go so far in a day.

Those north of the front may still not want to not park their cars outside with the higher risk for large hail with elevated storms.

This is excluding the huge rise last week, which was the largest one week rise in the history of crude futures!

Thread here:

How much further north will the warm front nudge? Still about 36-48 hours to see but looking like our first crack at some true severe for Central and N IL. Also storm initiation a slight question with the latest 00z models, specifically NAM3km.

Well I was looking at the 2' 75 miles away...plus for here it's a worse solution than for you. But anyway, doesn't matter, not gonna happen.

Oil will be $120 by midnight tonight!

Don't get me wrong, the warm temperatures are great, but we have like 8 months of almost 0 chance for meaningful snow, so if a realistic threat window for 6 plus is legit Im all in. 18z GFS was a clown run for January standards let alone mid March.

crude oil just hit $118/bbl - hope folks have bikes / scooters / EVs or their Smartrip card ready for this summer lol

Tuesday looks yikes on CAMS so far. If a storm latches onto the WF...thread worthy?

11-12” here. Been a hairdryer. CAD land doing well.

SSW should be giving us -NAO by the end of the month.. doesn't always work though, and the last few March's SSWs haven't had much of a -nao correlation. Should be interesting to see if models have it wrong though

could be from +TNH bc of the SSW?

AI Euro has done decent this winter. But get ready for plenty of model waffling this week.

Strong +NAO being the biggest counter factor

Soundings for later Wednesday do look interesting, but what will trigger storms? Maybe there is a subtle shortwave in the flow to do something, and the ECMWF admittedly does suggest a couple of open warm sector storms, but I'm skeptical. It appears that the strong forcing won't arrive until early Thursday, the most unfavorable time of day possible for this setup.

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm. This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for a sustained below average temp regime during the second half of March though. I just think the models are completely off base here in regards to what happens after St. Patrick's Day for the Midwest especially.

I noticed this pattern last Winter, which we had never really seen before. Then of course the extreme's that followed this year

AI GFS wasn’t terrible, and funnily enough it’s been one of the more consistent models. Seems to be fairly good at picking up long range pattern changes.

They 18z GFS is an impressive snow storm for middle and western areas around 210. It will almost assuredly change, but it is an example of what some of us have been watching. It looks like 2-3 strong amplifications beginning around St Patrick's Day.

Yeah, I’m not talking about the run itself. I’m just what my thoughts are on that period.

Multiple 100+ readings in Phoenix likely this March...that's nuts.

I'll let you know on April 1. Seen way to many mid March to early April snowstorms to give a final grade on March 8th. For now a B+.