All Activity

They won’t radiate Saturday night with strong CAA but Sunday night they might. Winds take a while to subside and there could be some cloud cover trying to move in so we may not see a lot of radiators going wild during this cold shot, but the best chance is Sunday night.

Which literally means nothing that far out. Track the stuff on your doorstep first... 28F

The East had a winter. The West had a summer.

Geesh, I guess not. I’m probably in the minority here but I’m not really all that impressed with the wind threat if we’re talking strictly from a mph standpoint. Most guidance and that includes the high res stuff like the HRRR that normally ramps up surface winds barely support advisory winds much less anything of the variety that would cause widespread power outages. But I could get on board with a wind advisory for 45-50mph I suppose. Basically a typical wind event in other words, it gusts to 60mph at @canderson’s house in those anyways haha. This event also has a more northerly trajectory to the wind as well being more NW or even NNW.. less of a direct downslope component to enhance wind gusts IMO. What I am impressed with is the COMBO of the winds and cold temperatures. Dynamically this will be the coldest shot of the winter to date. The more northerly component to the wind minimizes modification of the airmass source travelling over the Lakes, which already have a good bit of ice with Erie >95% covered. Non-diurnal “High” temps for Saturday will occur before about 3-4am Sat morning. Sat daytime temps will struggle to get out of the single digits in most of the area. Laurels and some north-central might not crack zero. You can see how there’s an appendage of non-modified Arctic air that reaches PA. I drew the rough surface wind direction. It mostly goes over the frozen portion of Huron and Erie. Saturday morning will probably be the worst for wind chills, though it won’t be good all day. I think most of that extreme cold watch has a good chance of being upgraded to the full blown warning. Here’s the kind of wind chills the 18z HRRR put out after daybreak Saturday morning. I haven’t really seen those kind of wind chills since the Christmas 2022 cold shot.

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west. But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

Do the valleys still radiate in these events, or do winds protect from that?

Mesos , and then Euro in that order

We still have another couple weeks of Niña trade winds to fook any chances of getting Niño benefits. That's just the way it works around here unfortunately.

SSW November's? I don't know. Maybe 10? On my old computer I plotted all 10mb events since 1948, but I don't have that data anymore, just memory of what the end result showed. 10mb warmings are lagged to AO, and 10mb coolings happen with AO in now-time (0-day)

I'll take my chances with that after this past 7 year clownshow.

No liberty is someone else

Andddd the midweek storm on the GFS is like nothing like it was at 12z lol

NJ may receive a nice little event... 29F

Interesting. How many occurrences were there?

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out this year, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same.

Indeed the NAM a little more impressed with the snow squalls tomorrow night. Saturday will be the coldest day of what has been one of our coldest winters in years!

BASIN WIDE SUPER EL NINO HERE WE COME.

This is the one I knew we would get more from them Tuesday Wednesday. And it won't be much but could be an inch of snow

I've said this a few times this year and I've yet to see any, but once again the 3km NAM looks convective with that initial band tomorrow. At some point one of us has to get lucky with some T-snow. Otherwise this looks spectacular. Outside chance I actually get more from this than I did last weekend. We only ended with 5" last weekend, and NAM supports 6-8" at the house. Flow direction is pretty good for me. Banner Elk should definitely be a hotspot this time.

Tomorrow will be another cold day with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. A strong surge of Arctic air will arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Some areas could pick up a heavier snow squall. Much of the region could see a coating to an inch of snow early Saturday morning. The temperature will rise no higher than the lower 20s in New York City Sunday will be even colder. Temperatures on Sunday will likely top out in the teens in New York City with a low in the single digits. The persistent and often severely cold pattern will likely break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.852 today.

By the way, check out the ENSO subsurface. Torching

What would you use? I probably already know

This weekend is more of a wind chill event than an absolute temp event. We’ll see how low ORH and BOS go since they are non-radiators. I’ll be impressed if BOS can get near 0F and ORH can crack -5F.

What was it last Friday? Seemed pretty cold then plus the wind

Pixels