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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)
  3. WxWatcher007
    Lawns looking great across the area
  4. WxWatcher007
    Not really much of a signal yet, but if there’s a window for homebrew I think it’ll be early. Really hope I’m not hopping on a flight to chase a 45mph TS this season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic.
  7. MANDA
    90-95 along the urban corridor over NJ seems very realistic.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year.
  9. BlizzardNole
    It feels so hot already at 85, I'm dreading upper 90s! I bet on Friday we see temps sinking thru the 50s during the afternoon with showers and a stiff east breeze
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI.
  11. winterwx21
    I'm probably gonna hit 94 or 95 today which is a few degrees hotter than yesterday. Gonna have to go pretty far east for that advertised cooldown today with the backdoor front.
  12. kdxken
  13. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Ensembles haven’t changed much. Still looks wet. Only concerning thing I have is boundary setting up north and west of triangle area. Seems to have trended stronger with SER recently meaning boundary is pushed back somewhat
  15. winterwx21
    We desperately need the rain but I'd hate to see most of the holiday weekend ruined. I'm hoping for 2 out of the 3 days being not too bad. It's possible that Saturday ends up being the very rainy day with improvement for Sunday and Monday. It would still be cloudy and cool but hopefully dry enough for cooking outside. I wouldn't mind a soaking on Saturday but not too bad for Sunday and Monday, which some model runs have been showing. But of course there's still the risk of 2 out the 3 days being rainy -- a long way to go to figure it out. Anyway this is rough having this type of heat right now with it being so dry. The vegetable garden needs a lot of water.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out.
  17. MJO812
    This sucks. Im sweating so much.
  18. Met1985
    This is exactly what we need. Ample supply of gulf moisture. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  19. A-L-E-K
    looks like we should get clipped with some garden variety rains here before too long, could use the rain too edit: snuck into a watch, ready for more comma head winds
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that helps boost the RONI.
  21. Met1985
    This for sure!
  22. Met1985
    Drought forever
  23. snowman19
    +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
  24. Today
  25. weatherwiz
    Yeah I would not be shocked to see some heat advisories tossed out this afternoon
  26. Typhoon Tip
    I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance. All but compelled to add 2 point bump out of respect for superb heating combined with "non-Markovian" feedback, no less.
  27. Maggie Valley Steve
    It looks like a significant pattern change is coming this week with a stalling boundary that will extend back into Texas. Rounds of rain will move across the Mountains later this week and possibly into the weekend. I'm seeing a pesky trough building in and lowering pressure across the Gulf as a monsoonal trough begins to organize in the Western Caribbean. Our sensible weather suggests that we begin to see an El Nino pattern slowly become established and rain chances increase all across the SE Region. Keep an eye on an early tropical system slowly organizing somewhere in the Gulf at the end of May or early June.
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