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81 / 63 sunny. Warmest of the next 7 days with upper 80s to the warmest locations touching 90. Thursday storms could dump 1-2 inches of rain later in the pm and into the night especially in south/east sections. Clears out and dry gorgeous Friday low 80s, then need to watch either a split weekend or an unsetteled mainly cloudy pair - TBD. Near normal 8/24 - 8/27 before moderating warmer and then overall warm 8/29 - beyond and shot at some late season heat and humidity.

It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere and planet tried to establish an equilibrium after the Super Nino. With some data showing earth briefly getting to 2C in 2027 (which is crazy) a pullback is possible, if not likely.

Isn’t that how summer precip has been for a century? It’ll usually average out to near an inch per week, but you sure as hell aren’t getting it that consistently.

I think I relate to his philosophical approach.

It's really hard to guess specifics but I look at it as an indication that the longwave pattern might not be typical. The large scale ridge/troughs may not park where they normally do on average. A key feature with ninos is a deep trough south of the Aleutians and a downstream ridge that blocks strong pac maritime flow into the conus. That's half of the split flow we look forward to with ninos. Screw that all up and things dont look as tasty. I'd sure feel better seeing a more typical +PDO ssta configuration given the strength of the nino. Not saying i expect disaster. Just not crazy bullish on the Pac as a whole.

Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about.

I think the -NAO signs are more about a beacon of hope in a sea of winter-maelstrom, rather than a "silver-bullet" for the cold season...of it should be, anyway.

Absolutely

Dews near 70° are COC?

Yes, I have noted that the signal for -NAO to develop mid-season also favors some eastern bias. No guarantees...1972 was pre CC, didn't have an extremely hostile polar domain, and was still wretched.

August 19 2007: Record 24-hour maximum rainfall of 15.10 inches set in Hokah, MN (Houston county). This 24-hour total contributed to the record monthly maximum rainfall of 23.86 inches that was set in Hokah during August of 2007. 1980: Strong winds at Belle Plaine severely damage five planes. For Wednesday, August 19, 2026 1788 - A small but powerful hurricane inflicted great havoc upon forests along a narrow track from New Jersey to Maine. A similar storm track today would cause extreme disaster in the now populated area. (David Ludlum) 1890 - An estimated F3 tornado hit South Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. About 400 buildings were destroyed in the industrial and more impoverished residential section of town. The death toll was 16 and damage was estimated at $400,000. 1969 - 'Never say die' Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides which killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill VA received 27 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1986 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Nebraska spread severe weather into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail three inches in diameter at Albion, and high winds which downed a large tent at Waterloo injuring a dozen persons. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced baseball size hail northwest of Topeka, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Fulton. Ten persons were injured in a thunderstorm at Princeton KS, and damage to crops in southern Franklin County KS was estimated at 3.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Raleigh, NC, reported a record hot temperature reading of 103 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph in southern Pittsburgh County. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.50 inches of rain at Morgantown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms deluged southeastern Delaware with six to ten inches of rain in four to six hours, with local reports of 13 to 20 inches of rain. Twenty-six major roads were closed or damaged, and fourteen bridges were washed out. Flooding caused nearly four million dollars damage to local businesses. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 19 Wed National Potato Day 19 Wed World Photography Day 19 Wed National Aviation Day 19 Wed World Humanitarian Day 19 Wed International Bow Day 19 Wed International Orangutan Day 19 Wed National Patient Advocacy Day 19 Wed National Photography Day 19 Wed National Soft Ice Cream Day 19 Wed Revolution Commemoration Day

I'm not in the camp that we are going to continue warming until infinity and beyond, so we'll see....just my hunch. I love people who claim that their "opinions" are 110% grounded in objectivity-bullshit. The evidence is, or should be, however, there is an inherent element of subjectivity to the conceptualization that we arrive at given the facts at hand. No one definitively knows what our climate will look like in 100 years, and those who claim that they do are full of shit....whether or not they have any insight into said cognitive fecal matter is another issue entirely.

Cherry picking again. I had 2.8 in June, 2.22 Aug and 6.98 Jul. it’s been two very dry months and one wet month that came mainly in two events .Your charts as usual don’t show the full story . It’s dry

Roundy has had some great discussion surrounding this over the summer.

Upper 30's/40's this morning across NE MN. Chilly start to the day. Saw a couple small flocks of geese moving yesterday aftrn. They were headed to the golf course (their fav spot).

don't need the rain so don't mind dialing in some comfort+ stuff

You are AN for the summer. Stop trying to be a Jack humper . You could be Scooter. You have no game with Stein

looking forward to 74/70 in September

Yeah it awful. Those numbers could easily be flipped around. Really good decision to lock him up long term. His stuff is electric.

The old Euro mid range high QPF bias strikes again.

Woke up to 60F this morning. Nice airmass change!

COC Back broken

.40" MTD: August 1st - August Steinteenth