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Im not mad at it out here in the sticks

12z GFS AIGFS Total QPF

GFS QPF 10:1

GFS good for PA folks. And north of i70 too I suppose

Gfs a little south but not bad. NJ does well.

GFS holds steady with a few inches for southern parts of the forum. Slightly less qpf than prior runs.

Put my ji hat on to say the overnight and morning runs will be just enough of a COC tease to then crush souls when the rgem is closest to right or the euro/AI abandons us like an orphan at 1230.

can we extend this for Sunday night into Presidents' day snow event?

Models are complete trash. All kinds of solutions and placements all different from one another 30 hours before start time. Throwing darts

Noise differences up top on the gfs at h5 in the wrong direction made for a step back a bit.

GFS looks a little south so far!

Both 12z WRFs are hits

Interesting. For ATL area we averaged 45.7 degrees Feb 1-12 which doesn't seem to bad to me, especially after the brutal Jan we had. I guess for Feb 45 average is low?

It's a step in the right direction, which seems to be the case on all modeling so far today. Some have made substantial changes with others only minor, but they all seem to be in the right direction. If we keep going ghru the day and night, we may just have to get WxUSAF to crawl out of bed and change the thread title to PDIII! lol

If it snows 4” I’m getting a tattoo of Roy Orbison.

Are we reeling this one in?

Pretty much everyone wants to hear about the mild up, besides a few trolls and shut-ins

AIFS seems like it was most correct over mid range..although slightly over zealous at times

Well… not “nobody”.

Monmouth/ocean jack. This year is a throwback and hopefully indicative our stretch of ratters and disappointments is changing.

Kind of mild on Icon too. I mean if guidance shows it, clearly it’s not a non-zero chance. I know nobody wants to hear it.

WCS agrees with you. Get a couple of WWBs that don’t stall and a moderate el nino with RONI at least +0.8 and we can break the -PDO that’s been plagueing us for years.

I guess..there’s not much good there for us. Uk is a fair bit from where we’d want it

Bothers me a little since RGEM is a good model, but there's too much other support now to not believe that we're going to see accumulating snow tomorrow night.

yeah...so gee, how's one suppose to think otherwise - huh