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  2. forkyfork
    that's me
  3. psuhoffman
    Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr
  4. psuhoffman
    Thoughts on winter https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr
  5. rclab
    forky ? As always ……
  6. donsutherland1
    Six photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the annual Chrysanthemum show opened today:
  7. forkyfork
  8. Torch Tiger
    enjoy the nice weather
  9. Torch Tiger
    what a winter
  10. Torch Tiger
    not 1" due to the wind, correct? :x
  11. powderfreak
    Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985. I feel like we are going to beat that. This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?
  12. vortex95
    @CoastalWx wants another "Wild Turkey Surprise" on Thanksgiving like what happened in 1989. A kiddie Scott went to bed that evening mad b/c the snow was going to miss SNE, and when woke up the next morning to S+ and got nearly a foot in GHG! Does he even recall this event? Big fcst bust. Looked too cold and suppressed. Models no clue. I recall the NWS took down the Winter wx advisory for the S Coast for their 06z update. Then the first obs from BDR at 10z (they were not 24 hr then) had S+ and then quickly put up a winter storm warning!
  13. Torch Tiger
    I will say, with that absolute BLASTING of the pac jet (lol DT) there must be some jet splitting there, probably a bunch of junk systems/late-bloomer ots systems. 11/10-25? Just a guess from that overall look I saw. Maybe some backside cold/snow-flurries NNE type thing. eventually something would produce there
  14. vortex95 started following Novtorcher Disco Thread
  15. RodneyS
    The annual record was set in 1979, when IAD precipitation exceeded DCA precipitation by 8.10 inches. So, we are on pace to break that record in 2026, with the current IAD minus DCA difference being 8.91 inches. Interestingly just five years ago, DCA precipitation exceeded IAD precipitation by a record 9.13 inches.
  16. LakePaste25
    Bank on it. If you look at @EasternLI’s H5 maps from 1877-78 (the extreme east based El Niño event) it’s basically a persistent -TNH from Nov-March.
  17. snowman19
    Agree. IMO this ends up a strong -TNH winter
  18. MN Transplant
    I wonder if there has been another time with IAD so far up on DCA for precip.
  19. LakePaste25
    Granted, I don’t think it’s *too* far off with the monthly H5. But a Feb -EPO in the monthly mean probably isn’t happening IMO.
  20. LakePaste25
    We’re at the point where it *finally* initialized the next month (November) correctly as an east-based event. But once again it tries to go “super Modoki” the following months which I don’t think is accurate.
  21. IWXwx
    My Dec. 14th prediction would also come into play. I picked that date because it was my parent's anniversary, my dad and brother's birthday. Very scientific.
  22. Maestrobjwa
    Bills have won 11 consecutive games coming off a bye. Josh Allen has never lost a game coming off a bye. Yeah we cooked for tomorrow, lol And I do not believe we beat Jacksonville on Thursday since we beat them last time (for the last 20 years straight we've only beaten them every other time...and we won last time!) We about to be 4-5 by the end of next week, man But I'm accepting that this has to be a transitional year. The problems Minter inherited are too deep to solve in Year 1--especially since they are of a cultural nature and require some rostee changes. Give he and staff an off-season and I think things will turn around next year.
  23. Birds~69
    Ryan Hall Y'all winter forecast...
  24. stadiumwave
    CanSips NOV Update DEC JAN FEB
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't see any precip trends different from the decadal trends so far this year. Since 2017 we have been very wet July/Aug and dry Sept/Oct. Extended models are all showing above average precip from ENSO, but I just don't know that that's started yet.
  26. Today
  27. donsutherland1
    The October 2026 summary in New York City:
  28. Yesterday
  29. Weather Will
    WB latest EPS weeklies. Mid November to mid December looks wet. Now we need to see if we can get cold enough air at some point during this period.
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