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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This was one of our most -WPO winters in years. Maybe it’s related to the warm pool east of Japan extending all the way across to California. When the warm pool was there and we had a cold pool near California it lead to the 22-23 winter and the strong +WPO.- 1,178 replies
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Yep… Triangle will be lucky to net 0.25”. Sorry for jinxing it… That being said I’ll take any measurable rainfall I can get and it will help with soil moisture at the surface as it will be an all day dreary scenario
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Monthly stats- it was a wild month for swings temp wise. Lowest temp was 32.6 while we peaked at 93.7. Had 4 straight days over 90 and 6 total for the month. That was countered with 4 mornings in the 30’s. Lots of areas around here saw frosts and freezes that were past climo. The real story of the month will be the lack of rainfall. Just 0.83” total IMBY. I think RDU was a tick above that as they got a little more from the first rainfall in early April but I think they were likely below 1” as well. This was the 4th month of the last 8 I have recorded under 1” imby
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We forked.
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It’s crazy how companies strip mine the topsoil of new developments to sell it off and leave the new homeowners with fill dirt and rocks. I’ll just generally encourage you to plant natives, and I’d be happy to offer suggestions if you want them! I was planting bushy St. John’s wort when I made that post. Have also added a new arrowwood, bluebells, blue mistflower, yarrow, and a “micropond” this year. HoCo and Columbia do lots of native plant giveaways every year so all of those were free.
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Very clever ploy in editing in the shout out to me, so as not to exhaust 1/5th of your daily allotment of posts!! 'Cmon, dude....you know I'm not a JB.- 1,178 replies
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Since Newark was changed to 23.9" i updated all the maps to reflect this. I also wanted to fix Westchester county and lower the amounts there and make some other slight adjustments. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-22-23-2026
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May 1 Countdown to winter begins
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What did you plant? I'm always looking for good plant ideas. RE: dry soil, I agree. @wxmeddler and I were talking about that earlir this week. Bittinger got almost and inch of rain, but the four inch soil moisture probe barely moved. Must be a combination of hard pan soils and surface vegetation being very thirsty.
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Another 10/10 early spring day
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how does one prepare? is it like going to the store to buy milk and bread
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Today will be our 7th consecutive below normal temperature day with our temperatures remaining below normal through this weekend before we warm to above normal by Tuesday. We then turn cooler again for the rest of the first week of May. Overall, the long-range models see a chillier than normal month with some models continuing the relative chill into June. We have some slight shower chances tonight with rain chances increasing toward the middle of next week. -
2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I mentioned that in my March recap...there is often a bonafide Pacific trough regime about 10 days following PV splits. Showed up in two of my primary analogs: This split of the PV was then followed by a strong Pacific trough regime that resulted in record warmth about 7-10 days later, which was in fact very comparable to the sequence observed in the wake of the February 2018 analog-warming. This is same phenomenon also occurred to a somewhat lesser extent in 2001, as very warm temperatures with highs in the 50s also occurred on February 20th, 2001, which is 10 days subsequent to the February 11th, 2001 PV split.- 1,178 replies
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 38 with .01” of rain. Beautiful cool spring day on tap. -
43 for the low in Alexandria, 32 out at McHenry.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Today will be our 7th consecutive below normal temperature day with our temperatures remaining below normal through this weekend before we warm to above normal by Tuesday. We then turn cooler again for the rest of the first week of May. Overall, the long-range models see a chillier than normal month with some models continuing the relative chill into June. We have some slight shower chances tonight with rain chances increasing toward the middle of next week. -
It's here everyone
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we prepare to start tracking convective threats.
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Okay, this is what I focus on...the reversal, which is why 2023 didn't register with me. I know February 2023 had a reversal.....but wasn't under the impression that the 23-24 season did.- 1,178 replies
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Low was 35.4 degrees, chilly but not a record (30 from 1996). No frost here, but lower elevation and down next to the river it is heavy!
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall. While I could see something like that, I do have a hard time envisioning a cold season.- 1,178 replies
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Snowman must have missed that part of the seasonal forecast in his tweet regurgitation.- 1,178 replies
