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NAM looks stout. As in beer.

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring. I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread. Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum. Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF.

Im not sure but suspect they might have seen plenty of cloud cover this month.

Some clearing slowly working its way down 73 / 58 socked in clouds but some brightening

Picked up 0.05 inches this morning, with a total now of 1.38 inches.

70/48, deep blue skies, sun.

hemp

GET IN LADS SHE JUST COOKED US SOME MORE SCRAN Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion 1215 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025 Hurricane Erin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...ERIN STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER... 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 23.1°N 70.8°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Yeah the northerly shear is pretty apparent with the restricted outflow on the northern part of the circulation. Compare the extent of outflow on the north side to the south side, huge difference.

Nooners: 73 and cloudy. More muggy than I expected but nice out

about 24-36 hours of humid, tropical air. This upcoming weekend should feel very refreshing

IR appearance has degraded considerably in the last hour or two. Trying to complete an ERC and probably feeling more of the shear now. May gradually weaken until shear can abate

Huntington but I go to Northport Bay often. I’ve never seen a dolphin there before, that’s very cool

definitely appears that way. I'm sure we'll have a couple hot days in Sept but the days are shorter and the sun angle much lower

Where do you keep your boat? I was in Northport on Saturday and there were dolphins in the bay just outside the marina.

It does in fact appear a more northward trajectory has resumed.

I think the NAM has validity. Drawing some moisture northwards from Erin and you have alright dynamics and a warm front approaching aloft. Lift isn't too bad. There could be a swath of a nice steady rain...nothing too crazy, perfect for the ground actually to soak it in.

Summers back is broken and we are now sliding into the early fall weather pattern. It was a very hot stretch but it’s over and now we can enjoy normal temps

thats what i said to my daughter when we went to the gym at 430, was really nice

Im guessing the NAM is completely lost regarding Wed? Has a soaker CNE and parts of SNE.

70 here...

We have all winter for temps in the 60s.

Today blows

If your paving I-93 sure.

Coast is really lucky that Erin is not directly going to hit it.