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Decent soaking overnight, 0.70" recorded for a liquid total so far this month of 3.98". Temp was nearly 70 at midnight and currently sits near 40 and still falling.

today is a nice day!

Of course... Processes and forcing et al are still identifiable. But one would not be correct if they believed there is nothing observably different - in other words, these correlation failures is/are an emerging over time (onsetting aspect). There would be no need for RONI if that were not the case - just one example. The HC is expanding though - ... get Ray going on that, he love it! hahaha

Wrecked

The blizzard puts it as an A-. Largest snowfall since 2010, howling winds, drifts. The snowcrete storm in January stuck around long than any other snow event I can remember. November & December were cold enough to feel seasonally appropriate. The huge 50 degree cold front with snow to end it all in March. The 1st coastal bomb that missed and only hit part of NC was tough to lose, and I wish we had had more storms overall/into March, but this was a very solid winter overall by my standards. Not many change to rain while DC get buried events, which is always a plus in my book.

This is fair, and as you've said, it's all subjective. I would go a bit higher though. I believe you've talked before about grading on the "how often does it look and feel like winter" scale, which I completely agree with, and for me this winter just looked and felt a lot like what winter is supposed to be. Even going back to some of the cold around the Thanksgiving time period and then the relentless cold through the first half of December and again from mid-January through mid-February. The staying power of the snowpack during that stretch was something to behold, plus a number of days where snow was at least in the air. While I agree my 22.3" of snow was nothing overly impressive, it just felt like more, and given expectations and some recent winters, I was pleased. Now, is it fair to grade on that type of curve? Probably not but everything is relative. You are right that March has been mostly a dud but there have still been some very potent cold fronts that have brought about some cool events and it hasn't lacked for feeling like March, despite the positive temp anomaly (some of that may have to do with those aforementioned midnight highs distorting our daily summaries ha). In any case, I thought it was a rock-solid winter pretty much from start to finish -- one I would sign up for again next year if I could right now -- and for that reason I'm going with a B+. Great discussion.

Impressive gradient N to S this morning.

Mostly piles here except for some areas that receive less sun. It’s brutal out there this morning. Down to 29.9° after a 2am high of 45.6°.

The last of my snow on my property vanished late yesterday. It was a nice run

HRRR has a snow squall push through tomorrow morning lol

Lot of wine I think.

pretty close... It was more like a, "besides ... befitting the La Nina" not hurting the idea. It's possible that it was entirely La Nina driven, and it was just a 3 or 4 month window where the distractions let it alone. interesting. You know (change the subject) I did this cursory research into warm springs long ago. I found that some statistical significance between late stage La Nina's and big spring warmth. I didn't look at it regionally, just at a N/A continental scale. 1976 April heat was truly awesome particularly in NE. MA/S NH and S ME... It was 96 with upper 80s and low 90s for three days before and prior to a big heat day - one entire week's worth. Dr Colby and I dorked it out for an hour and went through the rest of the spring's data recordings from the Lab's station. We were xpecting to happen upon a tongue-n-cheeker snow event in early May that year but nope. It stayed in the glorious 70s to 80s right through. So in 1998 we were coming off a super +ENSO and we had the 89/90/91 heat burst, Mar 29/30/31... So it's not a lock out correlation or anything either. But, that was a single pattern event - the former effort was more seasonal in time scale. I did find some correlation there. Out of deference to no believing the index methods are completely obsolete ( probably 2070s lol) last fall, I went ahead and thought shit... after the early loading, lets go 2012 on their asses. So I rib-poked a "flowery February" deviant attempting to trigger winter enthusiasts... I was never confident though.

Mega bust there. Couple cold days but not blocking to lock it in. Canada was/is remains quite cold but it was locked up all month. Only noteworthy event was the big midwest blizzard that gave Green Bay its 2nd highest snowfall of all time. Otherwise most of the country was a giant torch.

I thought I recall you posting something to the effect of a "typical front-loaded La Nina winter"? Perhaps I'm mistaken. Yea, I mixed up February and March, but other than that...one of my better efforts in the aggregate.

Exactly Alot of forecast busts happened this past winter.

He was just stating what the models showed in early to mid March. They did show a colder and potential snowy pattern. The NAO never went negative.

heh. Just in an op ed mood this morning Yeah, so I wouldn't tell anyone not to try. That's would be, in a word, stupid. One has to try... for one, if the process brings them joy, you only live once. Rock on. Plus, NOT trying at all? That would greatly reduce one's success rate in discovery, huh. LOL. The deeper take away there is that the foundations upon which long range prognostics were always based upon are clearly cracked. Perhaps crumbling... There has to be more in the way of original insight. As I mentioned, a fall back approach has been working rather well ... ish. Trying to asses the continuation vs collapse of 6-month persistence. You know, I almost nailed this winter. I fucked up the February thing but... my feelings were not hurt by that. I was much more confident in early cold/blocking, and I didn't use anything other than noticing aspect of late summer and autumn and pushing those forward. None of which was ENSO this or snow in the arctic that, or solar cycles ...or blah blah-blah. Is it reproducible? not saying that either. As far as the ego stuff... I've just had to throw hands. Years and years ago, when I started seeing ENSO's statistically decoupling around the world, I was ignored. But then some independent whatever comes up with RONI; yet no credit is conferred. So you know ... it's like a fuggit thing. Don't care anymore. We can know, and no one knows we know and that's just the way it goes. You are either chosen, or be loudly unspoken. Whatever god runs this show can go fuck itself. LOL

What rain?

I agree. To me personally, the 24-25 winter was more fun in both tracking and playing outside with my daughter.

Yup. We are definitely seeing more variation with fringe-events, though, which is why passing the baton from ONI to RONI was so crucial.

Good luck to your plants.

Too many people have figured out that life's events happen too frequently for people to remember erroneous bad predictions or bombastic lies...

The Earth's circulation isn't deviating that much. Things like the NAO still show Atlantic circulation mode, and although -NAO hasn't hit as hard with cold, +NAO has hit just as hard, harder with warmth. In the end, it evens out but you still have positive and negative modes to the index. Here's the last 333 consecutive months.. although ENSO is "warm", you can see by the Hadley Cell circulation that there is still a well defined "Nina-mode". Relative indexes work the same as the Earth still has 99.99% of it's general circulation in continuum.

When in doubt, go warm, though...not disputing that. But I'm like that 4th grade math teacher trying to instill the processes of solving long division problem into the class..."make sure you show the work", even if the short-answer could be easily discerned.

Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.