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I spoke too soon. Strong anticyclonic shear is disrupting the core in the last few hr and the circulation getting elongated again. I would be surprised if they upgrade it to a TS at 03z, unless they get a good ASCAT or SAR pass showing TS-force winds.

Fingers crossed! I squeezd in a buzz cut for my yard this evening just before dark and will hopefully be able to get some seed down tomorrow morning. Did you just go with one of the big bags of fescue blend from home depot/Lowe's?

Okay?

We had it in the 40s twice this week here. Prob tonight/tomorrow as well

45F here right now. ASOS down to 43F already.

My friend’s brother works for a trucking company I guess. He drove a 10,000 gallon tanker full of kerosene up the Mount Washington auto road last week to the summit. They have to do it at night with police etc. nuts

https://x.com/nycemergencymgt/status/2101397023626797401?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

February 14th, I think Tippy says the sun turns your car into a green house.

Highs in the 50s/cloudy/breezy, that gets my blood flowing. Then 40s w/a stray flurry (hallucination or not) then I enter winter mode.... 63F/DP 57F at 7:55pm

The NAM was not that accurate with a lot of precipitation for a long time. But you gotta love the severe weather soundings when it said 3000 J/kg when the GFS said 1500 J/kg.

Wonder when my first low in the 40’s will be

49° already

Good look at MWN tonight

Hammerhead is absolutely wild!

You don't even realize when you condescend/talk down to people, man..smh Telling me what I have and haven't read? Lol Like...why? Basic respect, man (I know that's lacking on the internet but we kinda know each other here) Now to the point...just because I don't think it costs an ENTIRE season doesn't mean I haven't read and am not aware of what it is about. He said "they won't play next season" like it won't be any season at all. There are differing opinions in the baseball world on how long i some execs think some games will be played, and I happen to share that opinion for now. I know how dug in both sides are and what the division is about. But an entire season is hard to fathom...although the stoppage in the 90s did cost the rest of that season. Had it come at the beginning of the year who knows?But imo...MLB is gonna have to give in eventually...the players will not budge on a cap. How long that takes is debatable but not a sure thing they won't play at all.

Around 81-82. Yeah it's been a really crazy summer on the sound with all kinds of tropical fish being caught and pods of dolphins. Even some hammer heads are coming up.. Hammerhead shark spotted off coast of Niantic Experts said shark sightings in the sound are not rare, but hammerheads are a different story. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/middlesex/hammerhead-shark-spotted-off-coast-of-niantic/amp/

Fast moving elevated showers have added another half inch or so since this morning. Could get trained on later on depending on where it sets up.

Yeah.. no player is going to want a salary cap. Someone wants to be the first Billion dollar player

As it capsizes ships on the Georges Bank. No effects SNE

Talk about threading the needle. That anticyclonic cirrus shear plume is right on the doorstep of the core, and yet no shearing of the convection over the core. One thing about seasons like this, the TCs are often small. TD6 exemplifies this. At first glance in vacuum, you look at the EIR image below of the Atlantic, and go, "where is it?!" Areas of convection exists sig larger than TD6 here!

As much as they would not admit, sometimes that is a factor. Here is something similar. Recall the system S of New England Jan 2023? That was a hurricane, but they blew it off operationally. Yes, a few months later they included it as a 60 kt STS, but not operationally declaring it when it was clear what it was? So that suggests that if they can get away w/ not doing it operationally, and just let post-season analysis "deal w/ it," they will. Another motivation could have been that a hurricane close to the East Coast "out of blue" in Jan? The public and media would freak and perhaps they did not want to deal w/ all that, but again, we should not be summarily constrained by policy or social/political factors when it comes to operational meteorology and calling things for what they are. And this ended up impacting marine Canada, so it was not a "fish storm." And put it this way, we've seen far worse looking systems declared/called a TC. So where is the meteorological consistency here? Loop here: https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822 Sfc and SST analysis https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231 That is a clear eye and quite deep convection for Jan. I got T4.5 on it (77 kt) using Dvorak. Now granted, SSTs were 21-23 C, so that means less efficient mixing down of winds aloft, but still 65 kt is likely here. Notice when it approached Sable Island crossing a very sharp SST gradient, it actually looked best! The center passed just W of Sable island which recorded sustained winds of 49 kt. That was over much cooler SSTs, so again, when it was farther SW over 21-23 C, 65 kt would be easy. This is not armchair quarterbacking, nitpicking, or a borderline TC situation. This system's nature was obvious and screaming at you, and the model fcsts handled its ET to T transition warm seclusion very well), so this was not a "surprise." Like I have said, call wx phenomena for what they are in real-time. The atmosphere doesn't care about human-imposed rules or what we think, it does what it does, and we all look at the same data, so by doing this, you prevent push back/calling out/criticism to yourself! And I see on this forum, ppl sometimes say, "I can't believe it hasn't been declared yet" or "it obviously stronger (weaker) than that!" That's not just random complaints/musings all the time, many times such statements and observations have merit or are true! loop.mp4