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That's why it's a watch. You put them out 48 hours in advance when 6+ looks likely. Which it did. There's no reason it can't be adjusted to an advisory.

that would be ok imho. my experience is the pinging starts too soon, it's rare to get a lot before it happens; but we do see it at times.

66,69,80,83,2002 and 2010.great memories!!

Are you that lone purple circle?

Crazy swings

I was thinking about driving up to Middletown NY or Poughkeepsie area. Looks like that could be jackpot area. New York City is looking dicey on thermals. .

bingo. it was too early for that. nut local jersey forecast this morning was, on media, 2-4 of snow sleet and even rain....no idea how good that is, and they change a lot.

Yeah, it’s unlikely, but I don’t think an advisory event is dead here yet

As expected the dividing line has edged from Philly to Trenton to now near somerville. That sleet line will almost always make it to 78. It will come down to front end thump and if we can manage 4 to 5 before the pinging. Even 3 gets me to double digits for the winter so I'd be happy

My problem with Forky is not his skill but his communication. Why cant he just state what he thinks is going to happen. Will Brooklyn see 2 inches before a lot of sleet? Will the bronx be mostly snow with CPK in 4 inches before the change? Just stating "NAM sniffs out warm layer" and "you will get a lot of sleet" to MJO is not that helpful. Don does a great Job in articulating his thoughts. Wish Forky would do the same.

so why did the powers that be start with all the watches two days in advance? to sell shovels? this storm is getting away from us. will keep an eye out, no idea if that model is any good, but even early this morning i sensed a hummina hummina from mt holly.....no idea what will happen, but seems to be the usual suspects here on one side or the other. will wait for consensus....which will come down to, wait for it....nowcasting! everyone enjoy the holiday.

MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone............... I'm happy because I received .21" rain early this morning. Was supposed to be less than .10" Gotta run to celebrate with friends and family the rest of the day........ A whole lotta calories.

We are debating taking the train to nyc in the am for the weekend to enjoy snow.

12z NAM with it's 1st move to the SW - shows a sleetfest for all . I suspect it will shift further SW on the next run

Someone posted in the MA forum that a known tendency of the Euro is to show freezing rain that should be a sleet profile. That would explain the difference between the GFS’s sleet output and the Euro which is almost entirely frz rain. Should be interesting regardless of how this transpires. …And Merry Christmas everyone!!

this is funny lol. however, forky is not a troll; if he says its gonna snow, it usually does. if he thinks there's a lot of sleet, there probably will be. i'm no met or even close, but whenever i hear waa....i hold my expectations; seen an all out 2 foot blizzard forecast turn into all sleet before. and when i saw all this 4-8 talk on tuesday, i was like damn, guys, this is way too early to bank on that....let's hope for 3-4 with some sleet and be happy in the metro; it's probably not our storm, but do we need 10-12 to be happy these days? i think not....

RRFS from the NE forum.

Uh Forky is

Yeah, talk dirty to me.

When did the NAM become your go-to model? And which run are you gagging on? It caved with a wild swing as plain as day. Your red tag is not a license to troll. Although it seems that way. Why don’t you and Greta snuggle up to a good murder book and sit this one out. Snowman and qq are on their way over with a six pack so make room for them. Merry Christmas Holy Shit

Yeah both nudges NE while the NAM moved SW. Perhaps a convergence. Lets see if the EURO and GFS hold.

Noise

Merry Christmas, fellow wx nerds/weenies! Today’s MJO forecasts aren’t bad at all for early Jan and heading into mid-Jan with them mainly on the left side and weak: GEFS: EPS: JMA:

RGEM. Yes a bit NE of previous run