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way too early for that...still could miss with the S trends on several models

It was a treat! Even the cat was running around in it, skidding on the driveway, lol.

Ya, that was. Then after that it sucked for a while.

Maybe more, maybe less.

Hope so. Should be cold at the start with a possible front end thump before any mixing

Based on the 12z runs, I'd bump Jeff's hood up.

More often than not models don’t do well with NAO blocking in the medium range, which isn’t necessarily anything new. So they’re now responding to what is looking to be a bit stronger of a -NAO block. Its high stakes with the changeability because our area is on the fringe between a surge of record warmth in the central US and still a decent source of cold air in Canada, which the -WPO (Bering Strait ridge) is providing despite the variable EPO and negative PNA. The northeastern US was never supposed to really warm up, at least for very long because of the -NAO holding off/muting the torch pressing from the central US, something I touched upon in a post a couple days ago. Now that we have a feature and high pressure suddenly lined up with plenty of cold available to bleed down, we have our setup for a mess instead of a day that looked like was heading for 55-60 a couple days ago. I know I did a double take yesterday when I saw that guidance went over to this. Funny thing is, this system has shown up in some fashion off and on in that 12/26-28 timeframe on deterministic guidance basically since it’s gotten within the range of it.

For SURE! Ironically we’re back to where we used to be. It’s all a cycle.

Keep in mind some people did guarantee a white christmas...you should ask for a refund!

Wasn’t 95-96 one of CT’s record breaking winters?

Lost our coating at WXW1 too

Fairly big overperformer here. Approaching 6”.

Cool. So now nobody needs to come back for 18z, or any other modeling thereafter until maybe next week sometime, since Fridays misses, and the next one rains.

Man is super raw out with 0 wind! About 35 out.

Did my boot camp in 1987 in Ft Sill, OK in the middle of summer. That was nasty! Then another 2 months there for more training in Jan-Feb 1990. Wild wx there with highs in the 80's down to 10's after a blue norther, and 6" of slush snow. And in 1990 spent 2 months (Oct-Nov) over in Albuquerque helping with some testing at Kirkland AFB. Never seen so many tumbleweeds, and absolutely dry wx for weeks. 10% humidity many days. One of the guys had a friend over in Dallas, so we spent Thanksgiving with him, and his family. Was glad to have experienced a different part of our country that is so much different than up N.

NYC is going to get a 3-6", possibly 6 to even 9 or 10" out of this one.

Its one crazy backdoor front. 70s to 40s back to 70s in 72 hours.

...so that was you in the other snowfort...

We have been spoiled. Getting a 12-18" blizzard every year becomes expected rather than the rare event it is. The 2010s were truly amazing. I'd say better than the 2000s. The late 90s were horrendous. IMO this is the worst stretch since 96-97 through 99-00.

That's wild, hopefully it makes up for lost time soon.

It was amazing as a kid. Best snow forts ever!!

Not going to Seoul to pick it up yourself?

Ukie also largely a whiff for good measure

Snow has increased in intensity again. About 1/2 mile vis Temp 32°

Things could always be worse. You could live in Alaska and not receive any snowfall for the entire month in what is normally your snowiest month.